1、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, acetic acid experienced a roller coaster market in October, which generally rose first and then fell. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3310 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3440 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.92% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 49.0%.

Before and after the National Day, when the operating rate of enterprises was low and the downstream demand was good, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, with more parent orders and less inventory. One week after the festival, acetic acid rose by nearly 14%. However, in the second half of the month, the market turned sharply downward, the operating rate of acetic acid increased significantly, the plants of Tianjin Soda Plant, Jiangsu Sopu, Yanchang Refinery and other manufacturers resumed operation in succession, the supply of acetic acid increased significantly, and the upstream methanol price fell significantly (methanol fell by 7.39% in October). The market atmosphere fell to the freezing point, and the acetic acid price fell again and again. By the end of the month, most of the increase in the first ten days had been erased. At the end of the month, with Hualu parking, the inventory in Shandong Province declined slightly, and the price of acetic acid gradually stopped falling.

2、 Analysis on the market trend of ethyl acetate

This month, domestic ethyl acetate was still weak, and the market was still in the process of bottoming. According to the statistics of the business community, the drop in this month was 0.76%. Near the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6600-6800 yuan/ton.

This month, the cost of ethyl acetate was not very good. Although the trend of rising first and then falling was followed by acetic acid, the amplitude was very limited due to weak downstream demand, which fluctuated within 3% throughout the month. One week after the festival, affected by the sharp rise in the price of acetic acid, ethyl acetate rose with the rise, but the cost driven market did not match supply and demand. After the middle of the year, under the influence of weak demand, prices fell in a negative way, erasing all previous gains, and the monthly line was slightly lower. On the one hand, the supply side is under pressure. While the bidding price of Shandong’s large factories has been lowered repeatedly, the bidding effect is average. In addition, the supply of large factories in Jiangsu is stable, and the ample supply of goods suppresses the rise of prices.

3、 Analysis of butyl acetate market trend

This month, domestic butyl acetate rebounded slightly, but the market performance was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of butyl acetate was 1.39%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range was 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, there are differences in cost. Although acetic acid fell in the middle and late days, n-butanol, another raw material, performed admirably. In October, n-butanol rose nearly 10%. Boost the downstream butyl acetate. However, although the cost is good, the supply and demand are still under pressure, so the rise of butyl ester is obviously weak. On the supply side, the operating rate of butyl ester manufacturers was still low in October, which remained at the level of 3-4% for a long time, but there were not many overhaul manufacturers, the market supply was abundant, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the price was difficult to have a strong performance.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain that the industry chain is uneven in heat and cold, and the drop of methanol at the source end (-7.39%) is significant, easing the cost pressure of acetic acid and downstream products. The downstream trend of acetic acid is differentiated. Ethyl acetate (-0.76%), EVA (-9.75%) and PTA (-11.86%) are weak, while acetic anhydride (2.06%) and butyl acetate (1.39%) are strong.

5、 Prospect of acetic acid industry chain

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain will maintain a weak consolidation. On the one hand, there is still downward pressure on upstream costs, which will bring negative effects to the downstream acetic acid industry chain. In addition, the epidemic situation is repeated, transportation is blocked, downstream demand is weak, and the price of acetic acid is hardly improved. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester may be differentiated. Ethyl ester may still be weak due to the pressure of supply and demand, while butyl ester may rebound slightly with the strength of n-butanol.

Price trend in October

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the business community, the price of cryolite rose slightly in October. On October 31, the average market price in Henan was 7875 yuan/ton, 1.29% higher than the price of 7775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.50% higher than that of last year.

In October, the domestic cryolite market was put into operation, and the quotation of cryolite enterprises was slightly raised in the month, mainly because the raw material end factories started at a low level, the supply of goods in the market was tight, the production pressure of cryolite enterprises increased, the on-site devices operated at low loads, the enterprise inventory was tight, the downstream follow-up on the purchase of high priced cryolite was weak, the enterprise shipment was not good, mainly based on demand, the market supply and demand were frozen, the industry was wait-and-see, and the cryolite market was high and firm.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic price of fluorite has risen sharply. Due to safety and environmental protection requirements, the raw ore is under construction, the fluorite raw materials are scarce, and the processing cost is under pressure. The fluorite plant starts at a low level, and the price has risen sharply. The average price of fluorite at the end of the month is 3156.25 yuan/ton, up 11.73% compared with the price at the beginning of the month of 2825.00 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the raw ore is tight, and the downstream follows up on demand. It is expected that the price of fluorite will continue to rise in the short term.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated in October. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 18023.33 yuan/ton, 1.82% lower than the average market price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises started to resume, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum recovered slightly under the background of Jinjiuyinshi market, but the demand growth was slow under the macroeconomic weakness, and the downstream support was insufficient, and the aluminum market in the future fluctuated.

Future market forecast

At present, the cryolite price remains stable at a high level, the low level of raw material commencement continues to be tight, the downstream demand is weak, the market just needs to buy, the market trading atmosphere is general, the short-term market supply and demand are deadlocked, and the cryolite price remains at a high level.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

Polyformaldehyde price curve

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of paraformaldehyde production in Shandong was 5366 yuan/ton on October 1, and 5433 yuan/ton on October 24, up 1.24%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market price fell 7.39% from October 1 to October 28. On October 27, the methanol market continued to decline, the coal price slightly loosened, the crude oil fluctuated, the supply side was abundant, the demand side did not improve, and the methanol market fell for two consecutive days. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders. The support for raw material methanol is insufficient, and polyformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price of polyformaldehyde may be lowered.

In October, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose mainly as a whole, and the price of Henan market was firm, with significant increase. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4230 yuan/ton on October 1 and 4560 yuan/ton on October 27, with a rise of 7.8% in the month, down 14.25% compared with the same period last year.

As of October 27, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4550 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4190-4560 yuan/ton

In October, the domestic dimethyl ether market was relatively strong as a whole. The Henan market continued to increase mainly, and the Hebei and Jiangxi markets also rose to varying degrees, with significant amplitude. After the National Day holiday, the Henan market rose strongly, and the factory quotation continued to rise. On the cost side, the raw material methanol market started to rise on September 25. As of October 8, methanol rose by 19.8% during this period. The sharp rise in raw materials has brought significant benefits to the dimethyl ether market. On the supply side, many sets of devices, such as Hebi BMW and Qinyang Shengxin, were parked, the market supply was low, and most manufacturers had no pressure on inventory. On the demand side, after the festival, the logistics was recovered, and the demand for downstream inventory and replenishment was good. The enthusiasm for entering the market was good, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively mild. The market is obviously favorable, and the dimethyl ether market has sufficient driving force. In the later period, with the price of raw materials falling back, and the terminal demand increasing is limited, the enthusiasm of downstream entering the market is less than that in the earlier period, and the power of dimethyl ether to continue to rise is insufficient, so the price drops slightly. However, the low supply level in Henan market has provided relative support, and the price of dimethyl ether market has been mostly sideways until the end of the month.

To sum up, the current raw material methanol market is weak, and the cost support for dimethyl ether is insufficient. In terms of demand, the improvement of terminal demand is relatively limited, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, in terms of supply, the market in Henan is relatively low. Most of the upstream inventories are under control. The manufacturers have an obvious attitude of price support, and most of the prices are stable. Dimethyl ether is expected to continue to rise in November.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of styrene butadiene rubber was 11300 yuan/ton on October 26, down 0.07% from the previous day. On the 26th, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber manufacturers was stable. The price of raw styrene decreased slightly; The overall supply of styrene butadiene rubber is sufficient; Downstream demand is sluggish; Weak market in the industrial chain; The offer of styrene butadiene rubber from some merchants fell by 50 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the mainstream offer of the domestic SBR 1502 market was around 11200~11500 yuan/ton on the 26th.

Enterprise, product, ex factory price (yuan/ton)

Sinopec Huabei., Qilu Butadiene 1502., 11200

Sinopec Huabei., Qilu Butadiene 1712., 10000

Sinopec East China, Yangzi/Qilu SBR 1502., 11200

Sinopec East China, Yangzi SBR 1712., 10000

Sinopec South China., Qilu Butadiene 1502., 11400

Sinopec South China., Qilu Butadiene 1712., 10200

PetroChina East China., Jihua/Lanhua/Fushun Butadiene 1502., 11200

PetroChina Northeast, Jilin Chemical/Fushun Butadiene 1502., 11200

Future market forecast: the supply side is loose, downstream demand is limited, and cost support is weak. It is expected that the price of styrene butadiene rubber will be weak and volatile in the later period.