According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 7, 2023, the average ex-factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29, 2023 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 234 yuan/ton, or 4.76%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that after the Spring Festival in 2023, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole was in a weak decline. After the festival, the downstream demand of domestic dimethyl carbonate was released slowly, and the on-site inventory was accumulated. Some of the dimethyl carbonate manufacturers sold their products at a profit. Two days after the festival, the focus of the dimethyl carbonate market was on the downward movement, and then the overall market was weak. As of February 7, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 4500-5000 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall supply of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has increased, and the intra-field trading atmosphere is general, waiting for the gradual release of downstream demand. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market price will mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Society, on the 6th, the average price of nickel spot market was 217950 yuan/ton, down 4.44% from the previous trading day and up 28.36% year on year.

The strength of the US dollar led to the fall of metal in the internal market, and the sharp decline of nickel in the next week was 5.13%; Nickel production capacity release market supply is sufficient, nickel inventory has increased slightly, some downstream enterprises have been more active in stocking, procurement has increased, and spot transactions have increased significantly. However, some terminal enterprises have not yet recovered, and it is expected that they will almost return to normal at the weekend. In January 2023, a total of 29 ships were delivered from Philippine nickel mines, totaling about 1.5 million wet tons, a decrease of 21.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. After the rainy season in Surigo, the Philippines, the shipment volume is at the low point of the year, and is expected to recover at the end of the first quarter. At present, there are 6 nickel iron vessels loading/waiting for loading in Indonesia’s main ports, which is 33.33% lower than that of the previous period. Downstream, the production of stainless steel and nickel sulfate slightly recovered in February, and there is still a certain demand for alloy electroplating.

In February, the dominant inventory of refined nickel in the world is still at a historical low, and the price rise elasticity is relatively large under the status of low inventory and low warehouse receipt. At present, the nickel futures price is still dominated by the capital game, and the nickel price may still maintain a high and wide fluctuation before the apparent recovery of the dominant inventory.

Acetic anhydride prices rose after the holiday

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose after the holiday. As of February 2, the price of acetic anhydride was 5475 yuan/ton, up 2.82% from 5325 yuan/ton on January 27. After the holiday, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the price of acetic anhydride rose in shock.

The price of acetic acid rose sharply after the holiday

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of February 2, the price of acetic acid was 3270 yuan/ton, up 9.00% from the price of 3000 yuan/ton on January 27; The price of acetic acid rose by 10.85% from 2950 yuan/ton on January 1. After the holiday, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply, and the rising power of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices rose after the holiday

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of February 2, the price of methanol was 2763.33 yuan/ton, up 2.73% from the price of 2690 yuan/ton on January 27. After the holiday, the price of methanol fluctuated and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the rising power of acetic anhydride increased.

Future prospects

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of the Business Agency, the price of acetic acid rose sharply after the holiday, the price of methanol rose in shock, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; Replenishment after the holiday, the downstream demand for acetic anhydride was stable, and the price of acetic anhydride increased. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride rose and the demand was stable, while the price of acetic anhydride rose in shock.

The price of domestic mainstream urea market rose slightly this month: the price of urea rose from 2698.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2780.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 3.04%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.14% year-on-year.

The urea commodity index on January 29 was 128.37, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.73% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 130.88% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

In January, the price of urea rose slightly, with a weekly maximum increase of 1.26%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic mainstream market price of urea rose and fell each other this month.

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is general

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream products in this month appeared to be up and down: the price of liquefied natural gas rose first and then fell, and the price fell from 6176.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5814.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.86%, a year-on-year increase of 50.36% compared with the same period last year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) rose first and then fell, rising from 1870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1880 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 10 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 9.06%, down 4.35% year on year. This month, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Urea rose slightly in the future.

Urea fell slightly in the future

In the first half of February, the urea market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations. Upstream anthracite and natural gas prices fell slightly, and cost support weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, and the supply is tight. Urea may fall slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the PP market has been weak recently, the drawing brand has fallen in shock, and the fiber products have also declined. As of January 16, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was around 7750 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic propylene market of propylene has been rising steadily recently, and the refinery has been tentatively pushing up. Downstream stock preparation before the festival, there was a wave of purchase peak, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream stock flow was smooth, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. It is expected that the propylene market in Shandong will run steadily in the short term.

The price of propylene rose steadily and was slightly stronger. Last week, PP cost side support was acceptable. In terms of industrial load, the maintenance downtime of PP polymerization enterprises increased recently, and the industrial load fell back to 81%. The supply of goods on the site is relatively sufficient, the inventory position has decreased, and the supply pressure has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises has decreased. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as expected, the market momentum is low, and the spot price is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of January 16, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7866.67 yuan/ton, which is – 3.28% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month and – 4.65% lower than the same period last year. In the early stage, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, rose, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the near future. The digestion speed of non-woven end products decreased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP weakened due to the approaching holiday. It is expected to maintain weak consolidation operation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market continued to fall last week. As of January 16, the average quotation of domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10100 yuan/ton, which was – 9.28% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month and+6.05% higher than the same period last year. In terms of international health events, the disposal of health events in China was optimized last month, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials is too much, and the recent demand tends to be flat. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may fall back when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analyst of Business Agency believes that the polypropylene market fell last week. The market of raw material propylene is stable and rising, and the cost support is acceptable. As soon as the terminal enterprises gradually entered the pre-holiday mode, the intra-field trading began to weaken, and the buyers were cautious to wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate due to the continuous delisting of the industry.