1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene fell by a narrow margin this week, and the price in South China was temporarily stable. The price was 8230 yuan/ton on October 28; On Friday (November 4), the price was 8060 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week and up 22.68% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

The demand for downstream chemical products remains weak, the demand for terminal gasoline becomes weak, the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly, and the price drops weakly. However, the supply of mixed xylene continued to be tight, and the enterprise’s inventory was low, supporting the price. The decline was limited within the week.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market rebounded after falling this week. On Thursday (November 3), South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $952.5 per ton, a year-on-year drop of US $36 per ton, or 3.64%.

In terms of crude oil, the economic data performed better than expected. Superimposed on the decline of the US dollar, the US crude oil and gasoline stocks declined. OPEC+promoted production reduction. The demand of the oil market may improve. The overall international oil price rose this week. As of November 4, Brent prices this week rose by 2.8 dollars/barrel, or 2.92%, compared with last week; WTI rose $4.71 per barrel, or 5.36%.

In terms of downstream, in terms of PX, domestic PX fell broadly this week. On October 28, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than last week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China fell this week. On October 28, it was 9600 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 9300 yuan/ton, down 3.12% from last week and up 27.05% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded slightly after falling this week. On October 28, the price was 8329 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8179 yuan/ton, 1.8% lower than last week, and 1.33% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, in the later stage, the macro and supply and demand sides are still good for the oil market, and the oil price may be stronger in the future. However, before the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia comes into effect, the oil market is still uncertain due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Although there is still support on the supply side, the demand side has depressed the mixed xylene market. In general, mixed xylene still continues to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

The soaring price of raw materials drives the rise of DOTP price

It can be seen from the chart of the rise and fall of DOTP industrial chain price of the business cooperative that the rise of both the raw material isooctanol and PTA prices this week stimulated the rise of DOTP, with isooctanol rising 5.93%, PTA rising 1.54%, DOTP rising 3.93%, and plasticizer DOTP industrial chain products rising at the same time.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the average price of DOTP was 10250 yuan/ton, 387.50 yuan/ton higher than the average price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on October 28. The corresponding price of isooctanol rose by nearly 700 yuan/ton, and the PTA price rose by 87.5 yuan/ton. The difference between the rise of isooctanol price and the rise of DOTP price is large, mainly because the weak downstream demand has dragged down the plasticizer market, and the insufficient rise of PTA price does not support the sharp rise of DOTP.

The price trend of raw materials rises

 
According to the data of the business association; The price of isooctanol stopped rising this week. As of November 4, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 5.93% from 9000 yuan/ton on October 31 last weekend. This week, due to equipment maintenance of isooctanol manufacturers and limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to ship. The price of isooctanol has risen sharply, and the cost of DOTP has risen. With the recovery of transportation, the demand is poor, and the price rise of isooctanol in the future market is not supported enough.

According to the data of the business community, as of November 4, the PTA price was 5787.50 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from 5700 yuan/ton on October 30 last weekend. Recently, there are many PTA maintenance and production reduction capacities, PTA supply is tight, PTA prices are rising, raw material prices are rising, and DOTP is gaining momentum.

The market for plastic products remains weak

According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in September was 6.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The domestic output of plastic products from January to September was 57.607 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 4.2%. In the traditional peak season, the output of plastic products in September is slightly higher than that in August, which is relatively normal, while the domestic manufacturing industry contracted in October. The output of plastic products in October is expected to converge to October 2021 or lower than the same period last year. The downstream just needs insufficient digestion capacity, the demand for plasticizer is expected to decline, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP price is large.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business agency believe that the rise in the prices of raw materials, such as isooctanol and PTA, this week has stimulated the rise in DOTP prices. However, due to the weak performance on the demand side, the rise in plasticizer DOTP has been weak. In the future, with the recovery of transportation and the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply shortage of isooctanol and PTA will be alleviated, the DOTP cost support will be weakened, and the demand will be weak. The DOTP decline risk will increase. It is expected that the DOTP will stabilize at a high level in the future, with a downside risk.

From October 1, 2022 to October 31, 2022, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese will rise. The spot market price in East China will be 16700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that the electrolytic manganese market stopped falling and recovered after entering August. Although the increase rate in August and September was less than 1%, the increase rate in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and the price has risen significantly near the end of October.

Manganese ore: In October, the manganese ore market was dominated by weak operation, and the manufacturers’ price reduction was obvious, but the demand was relatively stable. In terms of transportation, the lines in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi are still limited, the freight rate keeps rising slightly, and the superimposed silicon manganese market goes down, and the loss of manufacturers further rises. As of October 28, the semicarbonic acid in Tianjin Port was 34-34.5 yuan/ton, the Australian block was about 44.5 yuan/ton, the transaction of Australian seed dropped below 40 yuan/ton, and Gabon was about 39 yuan/ton. The short-term price performance was weak, and the shipment sentiment was strong; In Qinzhou Port, the transaction price of South Africa semi carbonic acid is lower than 35 yuan/ton, and the price of Australia is 44-45 yuan/ton. The price of Gabon block is about 42 yuan/ton.

In September 2022, China will import 3.126 million tons of manganese ore, an increase of 30.25% compared with 2.4 million tons in August; The import volume from South Africa in September was 1537900 tons, an increase of 55.11% month on month. In September, the import volume from Australia was 4216000 tons, an increase of 91.5% month on month.

From January to September 2022, China imported 22229300 tons of manganese ore.

The electrolytic manganese market has rebounded slightly since the end of August, but the overall performance is average, with a monthly increase of less than 1%. After entering October, the first half of the month remained temporarily stable for most of the time, and the price rose slightly near the end of the month. At present, the mainstream market price is 15500-15700 yuan/ Tons, but the market turnover was less than expected, and the downstream still focused on purchasing on demand. In terms of steel bidding, POSCO, South Korea, resumed electrolytic manganese bidding again this month, boosting the market mentality. However, the overall situation of domestic steel bidding has also improved compared with the previous period. The quantity and price of steel bidding have rebounded to a certain extent compared with the previous period, and the market mentality has improved to a certain extent. The domestic alliance will implement the measures of limiting production and reducing production in August December. After the alliance meeting, the price starts to rise slightly. The enterprises have a strong attitude towards price fixing, and the market has been boosted to a certain extent. It is expected that the future market price will remain stable and strong, and there is still some room for growth. The mentality of supply and demand game is strong.

Bad news kept coming in October. The domestic silicon manganese spot market had a poor trend, and the futures market declined. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7000-7200 yuan/ton on October 28, down 1.62% from the beginning of the month.

Relevant data:

In September 2022, China’s imports of electrolytic manganese were 2000.39 tons, up 1000.38 tons month on month; In September 2022, the export volume of China’s electrolytic manganese was 23464.81 tons, up 3643.88 tons month on month.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG was 6006 yuan/ton on October 26, and 5380 yuan/ton on November 2. Domestic LNG prices fell 10.42% within seven days.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from August 8, 2022 to October 30, 2022 that the domestic LNG industry has seen a lot of ups and downs during the cycle. The maximum increase in the cycle was 10.25% in the week of September 12, and the maximum decrease was -12.1% in the week of October 24.

The domestic LNG market has been weak in recent seven days, and the price trend has continued to decline. Due to the strengthened control of domestic epidemic situation and the blocked transportation, the price of domestic gas has been greatly reduced. The market demand is low, and the market is mainly bad. The final bid price of feed gas directly supplied by PetroChina to the northwest liquid plant in the first ten days of November was 3.55-3.81 yuan/m3, the average price was 0.24 yuan/m3 higher than the previous period, and the trading volume was 50 million m3. At present, the market trading is still flat, with gains and losses in various regions. As the northern heating season begins, the terminal demand will be released gradually.

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on November 2:

Region, quotation

Inner Mongolia 5250-5660

Shaanxi, 5700-6000

Shanxi Province, 5300-5800

Ningxia, 5550-5760

Hebei.,. 5950-6050

Henan, 6100-6500

Sichuan, 6100-6500

Shandong, 6330-6450

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that: due to weak terminal demand, the domestic LNG market has continued to run weak in recent days. With the start of the heating season in the north, the market demand for liquefied natural gas has increased, and there are signs of rebound in some areas, so the market is waiting to rise. In addition, the price of feed gas is firm and the cost is supported. It is expected that the LNG market will stop falling and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, acetic acid experienced a roller coaster market in October, which generally rose first and then fell. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3310 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3440 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.92% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 49.0%.

Before and after the National Day, when the operating rate of enterprises was low and the downstream demand was good, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, with more parent orders and less inventory. One week after the festival, acetic acid rose by nearly 14%. However, in the second half of the month, the market turned sharply downward, the operating rate of acetic acid increased significantly, the plants of Tianjin Soda Plant, Jiangsu Sopu, Yanchang Refinery and other manufacturers resumed operation in succession, the supply of acetic acid increased significantly, and the upstream methanol price fell significantly (methanol fell by 7.39% in October). The market atmosphere fell to the freezing point, and the acetic acid price fell again and again. By the end of the month, most of the increase in the first ten days had been erased. At the end of the month, with Hualu parking, the inventory in Shandong Province declined slightly, and the price of acetic acid gradually stopped falling.

2、 Analysis on the market trend of ethyl acetate

This month, domestic ethyl acetate was still weak, and the market was still in the process of bottoming. According to the statistics of the business community, the drop in this month was 0.76%. Near the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6600-6800 yuan/ton.

This month, the cost of ethyl acetate was not very good. Although the trend of rising first and then falling was followed by acetic acid, the amplitude was very limited due to weak downstream demand, which fluctuated within 3% throughout the month. One week after the festival, affected by the sharp rise in the price of acetic acid, ethyl acetate rose with the rise, but the cost driven market did not match supply and demand. After the middle of the year, under the influence of weak demand, prices fell in a negative way, erasing all previous gains, and the monthly line was slightly lower. On the one hand, the supply side is under pressure. While the bidding price of Shandong’s large factories has been lowered repeatedly, the bidding effect is average. In addition, the supply of large factories in Jiangsu is stable, and the ample supply of goods suppresses the rise of prices.

3、 Analysis of butyl acetate market trend

This month, domestic butyl acetate rebounded slightly, but the market performance was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of butyl acetate was 1.39%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range was 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, there are differences in cost. Although acetic acid fell in the middle and late days, n-butanol, another raw material, performed admirably. In October, n-butanol rose nearly 10%. Boost the downstream butyl acetate. However, although the cost is good, the supply and demand are still under pressure, so the rise of butyl ester is obviously weak. On the supply side, the operating rate of butyl ester manufacturers was still low in October, which remained at the level of 3-4% for a long time, but there were not many overhaul manufacturers, the market supply was abundant, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the price was difficult to have a strong performance.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industry chain that the industry chain is uneven in heat and cold, and the drop of methanol at the source end (-7.39%) is significant, easing the cost pressure of acetic acid and downstream products. The downstream trend of acetic acid is differentiated. Ethyl acetate (-0.76%), EVA (-9.75%) and PTA (-11.86%) are weak, while acetic anhydride (2.06%) and butyl acetate (1.39%) are strong.

5、 Prospect of acetic acid industry chain

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain will maintain a weak consolidation. On the one hand, there is still downward pressure on upstream costs, which will bring negative effects to the downstream acetic acid industry chain. In addition, the epidemic situation is repeated, transportation is blocked, downstream demand is weak, and the price of acetic acid is hardly improved. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester may be differentiated. Ethyl ester may still be weak due to the pressure of supply and demand, while butyl ester may rebound slightly with the strength of n-butanol.