According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8064 yuan/ton on July 7th, and the average price on July 14th was 8157 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 1.15%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on July 7th was 8687 yuan/ton, and the average price on July 14th was 8850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.87% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9137 yuan/ton on July 7th, and the average price on July 14th was 9250 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 1.23%.

This week, polyethylene prices continued the upward trend of last week. In terms of cost, crude oil rose in the short term, supporting the rise in polyethylene prices. In terms of supply, there were many parking, maintenance, and decoration projects in China in July. This week, the supply side slightly decreased compared to last week, with petrochemical factories mainly increasing. In terms of demand, July is in the off-season of demand, and downstream purchases are mainly on demand.

This week’s macro sentiment is good, providing some support for the polyethylene market. There is room for an increase in international oil prices next week, and there is little change in the supply side of polyethylene. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly rise in a narrow range.

MIBK market volatility is limited. According to the Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price in the East China market was between 12000-12200 yuan/ton on July 12th.

The raw material acetone rose in a wide range, and the cost increased. In East China, 5500-5550 yuan/ton was negotiated. The factory concentrated on increasing the price, and the factory stood firm in issuing orders, which continued to boost the sentiment.

Downstream procurement is poor, and buying needs to be improved. Operators mainly deliver early orders, and there is no pressure on inventory. Negotiations are focused on adjusting the focus range, and the MIBK industry’s operating rate is at 45%.

It is expected that the MIBK market will have limited volatility today, so please pay attention to the pace of shipment.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 11, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with July 5 (reference price of n-butanol was 7283 yuan/ton), the price increased by 217 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (7.5-7.11), the domestic Shandong n-butanol market has shown a steady upward trend as a whole. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is good, and there is a small range of stage stocking downstream. New orders for n-butanol have improved, and the overall n-butanol market is experiencing a recovery. The center of gravity of n-butanol prices is constantly moving upward. As of July 11, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market price reference is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is still good, with some n-butanol devices undergoing maintenance and supply side providing some support to the market. The n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market will mainly operate steadily with a strong trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly declined this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 188.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 178.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.32%. Weekend prices fell by 81.26% year-on-year. On July 9th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 27.70, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 85.27% from its highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 713.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 730.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.34%. Over the weekend, prices fell 76.95% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and increased cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9585.71 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 10.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 16133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 15650.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.00%. Weekend prices fell by 22.07% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide market has slightly declined, while the hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has declined due to supply-demand conflicts. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall weak trend of caustic soda prices in the first half of 2023. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was around 1128 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the price of caustic soda was around 788 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 30.14% in the half year.

2、 Annual Price Comparison Chart

 
From the annual price comparison chart of caustic soda, it can be seen that the price of caustic soda reached a historical high around October 2021. In 2023, the price of caustic soda was flat and mainly fluctuated.

3、 Price trend

From the price fluctuation chart of caustic soda, it can be seen that in the first half of the year, the overall price of caustic soda showed four trends: from the beginning of the year to mid March, the price showed a downward trend, from late March to late April, the price went up, from mid April to the end of May, and the price went down from the end of May to the end of June. At the beginning of the year, the average market price was around 1128 yuan/ton. On March 18th, the average market price was 804 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 28.72%. On March 18th, the average market price of caustic soda was 804 yuan/ton, and on April 15th, the average market price was 910 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.18%. The price has stabilized at around 880 yuan/ton from mid April to the end of May. At the end of May, the average market price of caustic soda was 904 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the average market price of caustic soda was 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.39%.

Phase 1: The price of caustic soda is declining. The main reason is that the main alumina manufacturers in Shandong region continue to lower the purchase price of caustic soda. Downstream market sentiment is mainly wait-and-see, with more on-demand procurement. Downstream alumina prices are low, and on-site caustic soda prices are weak.

Phase 2: In late March, the price of caustic soda increased, and some regions have seen a decrease in caustic soda equipment recently. The inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the overall supply is lower than in the previous period. Downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. Market transactions are relatively flat.

The third stage of consolidation operation. At present, there is no positive support from the supply side. The performance of downstream alumina is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in terms of demand is average. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The overall price of caustic soda has stabilized and operated.

Stage 4: The overall supply of liquid alkali is sufficient, and there is currently no favorable support in terms of supply. Although there will be enterprise maintenance in the later stage, downstream procurement is still in the general market, with high inventory levels. The performance of downstream aluminum oxide is relatively light, with weak and stable aluminum oxide prices operating in the market. The enthusiasm for picking up goods in terms of demand is average, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Supply: From the operating rate chart and maintenance situation of caustic soda in 2023, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, most of the caustic soda enterprises maintained between 80% -85%, and there were caustic soda enterprises undergoing maintenance. However, due to the lack of favorable support from downstream, the price still operated weakly. In addition, data shows that monitoring and statistics on the national caustic soda production from January to May 2023 showed that the national caustic soda production (converted to 100%) was 3.4128 million tons in May 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. From January to May 2023, the national caustic soda production was 16.9337 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.2%.

Demand: The downstream of caustic soda mainly includes alumina, textile and papermaking, followed by chemical, water treatment and pharmaceutical, papermaking, printing and dyeing, light industry, etc. The demand for alumina industry accounts for 31% of the demand for caustic soda. Recently, the price of alumina has been relatively stable, and spot transactions have been average. Some alumina enterprises have limited production capacity, and the newly added production capacity has been delayed, resulting in alumina enterprises mainly purchasing caustic soda on demand.

Prediction: The domestic caustic soda price is mainly stagnant, and the overall market is weak. Although several companies underwent maintenance in July, the early maintenance companies have gradually resumed production, and the supply of caustic soda is still relatively sufficient. Moreover, downstream alumina enterprises are operating relatively steadily, with fewer spot transactions and average purchase orders. Therefore, the price of caustic soda in the later stage is not optimistic, or it is mainly to maintain a weak market, depending on the downstream market demand.