The price of domestic mainstream urea market rose slightly this month: the price of urea rose from 2698.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2780.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 3.04%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.14% year-on-year.
The urea commodity index on January 29 was 128.37, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.73% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 130.88% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)
In January, the price of urea rose slightly, with a weekly maximum increase of 1.26%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic mainstream market price of urea rose and fell each other this month.
The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is general
From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream products in this month appeared to be up and down: the price of liquefied natural gas rose first and then fell, and the price fell from 6176.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5814.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.86%, a year-on-year increase of 50.36% compared with the same period last year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) rose first and then fell, rising from 1870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1880 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 10 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 9.06%, down 4.35% year on year. This month, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Urea rose slightly in the future.
Urea fell slightly in the future
In the first half of February, the urea market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations. Upstream anthracite and natural gas prices fell slightly, and cost support weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, and the supply is tight. Urea may fall slightly in the future.