The market tends to calm down before the holiday ,PP market fluctuates and falls

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the PP market has been weak recently, the drawing brand has fallen in shock, and the fiber products have also declined. As of January 16, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was around 7750 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.



Cause analysis


Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic propylene market of propylene has been rising steadily recently, and the refinery has been tentatively pushing up. Downstream stock preparation before the festival, there was a wave of purchase peak, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream stock flow was smooth, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. It is expected that the propylene market in Shandong will run steadily in the short term.


The price of propylene rose steadily and was slightly stronger. Last week, PP cost side support was acceptable. In terms of industrial load, the maintenance downtime of PP polymerization enterprises increased recently, and the industrial load fell back to 81%. The supply of goods on the site is relatively sufficient, the inventory position has decreased, and the supply pressure has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises has decreased. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as expected, the market momentum is low, and the spot price is weak.


In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of January 16, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 7866.67 yuan/ton, which is – 3.28% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month and – 4.65% lower than the same period last year. In the early stage, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, rose, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the near future. The digestion speed of non-woven end products decreased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP weakened due to the approaching holiday. It is expected to maintain weak consolidation operation in the short term.


In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market continued to fall last week. As of January 16, the average quotation of domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10100 yuan/ton, which was – 9.28% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month and+6.05% higher than the same period last year. In terms of international health events, the disposal of health events in China was optimized last month, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials is too much, and the recent demand tends to be flat. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may fall back when the demand momentum slows down.


Aftermarket forecast


PP analyst of Business Agency believes that the polypropylene market fell last week. The market of raw material propylene is stable and rising, and the cost support is acceptable. As soon as the terminal enterprises gradually entered the pre-holiday mode, the intra-field trading began to weaken, and the buyers were cautious to wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate due to the continuous delisting of the industry.