1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, from April 12 to 20, the propane market went up and down like a roller coaster. On April 12, the average price of the propane (Shandong) market was 3107.5 yuan / ton, and on April 20, the average price was 3175 yuan / ton. During this period, the propane price increased by 2.17%, while the amplitude of the earthquake reached 37.97%. Until April 21, the trend was stable.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: as of April 20, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group has no propane in stock, so the price is not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3350 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3300 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3150 yuan / ton.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER |
On April 12-20, propane saw a sharp decline after a crazy rise, and the trading atmosphere of the market was obviously weakened. In the early stage, the rapid expansion of polypropylene, the raw material of respirator, led to the sharp expansion of propylene, while propane, as the upstream of propylene, took the opportunity to keep up with the expansion. Manufacturers in Shandong generally rose 750-1350 yuan / ton, which was too strong and lacked basic support. In just three days, it ushered in a rational callback. After skyrocketing, the downstream is more cautious and wait-and-see, the market entry mood is not good, the upstream shipment is blocked, and the inventory gradually increases. And then propylene ushered in a significant correction, propane fell with propylene, the market returned to rationality. Until April 21, prices gradually stabilized.
Propylene: on Saturday (11th), propylene was generally increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton, and on Sunday (12th), it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton. On Monday, after a weekend surge, the market may need to be digested. On the 13th, the price of most enterprises was roughly unchanged. On the 14th, the price of most enterprises dropped by 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them recovered to the price before the surge. On the 15th, the price dropped by 500-1000 yuan / ton, and on the 16th Georgia continued to decline by about 200 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price still fell by about 400 yuan / ton. On Saturday (18th), it made up for the drop. On Saturday, the market turnover was between 5850-6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was between 5850-6000 yuan / ton.
Latest CP price: Saudi Aramco announced in April that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $230 / T, down $200 / T from last month; butane $240 / T, down $240 / T from last month.
| PVA |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.
3、 Future forecast
Last week (April 13-17), under the influence of downstream propylene, the propane market rose sharply and fell sharply. The downstream mentality was cautious, and the market was mainly on the sidelines. There was no obvious positive support in the international market. The manufacturer’s shipment was not smooth, resulting in the accumulation of inventory. With the price reduction, the terminal may have the expectation of replenishment, and the propane market is expected to adjust mainly in a narrow range in the short term.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |