1、 Trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt fell slightly in April. Since March, the price of cobalt fell sharply. However, since April, the decline of cobalt Market slowed down and the price of cobalt fell slightly. As of April 20, the price of cobalt was 247000.00 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from the average price of 251500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
2、 Market situation
Sales volume of new energy vehicles
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On April 10, the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that the production and sales performance of new energy vehicles in March was significantly better than that of last month, with a rapid growth rate on a month on month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed compared with February. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 50000 and 53000 respectively, a 3.8-fold and 3.0-fold increase on a month on month basis, a year-on-year decrease of 56.9% and 53.3%. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 105000 and 114000 respectively, down 60.2% and 56.4% year on year. Sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply. Sales of new energy vehicles picked up in March, but it was still far lower than expected, with a significant decline in demand. Cobalt market is bad.
Mobile phone production and marketing
According to the data of China Academy of communications, in March 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 21.756 million, down 23.3% year on year. From January to March 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 48.953 million, down 36.4% year on year. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand fell sharply. In March, the sales volume of mobile phones significantly recovered from that in February, but compared with the expected 5g mobile phone exchange trend, the performance of mobile phone market at this stage is far lower than expected, and cobalt market is relatively negative.
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3、 Future prospects
According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, the performance of new energy vehicle market and mobile phone market has recovered to some extent in March, and the demand for cobalt market has recovered, the downward pressure of cobalt market has weakened, and the downward trend of cobalt price has slowed down. However, the performance of the new energy vehicle market is far less than that of the same period last year, and the global automobile market has fallen sharply, which has a certain negative effect on the domestic cobalt market. The growth of the sales volume of the mobile phone market, especially 5g mobile phones, is the main driving force for the expected increase of the demand of the cobalt Market in 2020, but the sales volume of the mobile phone market has not increased, on the contrary, it has fallen sharply, the demand of the cobalt market is far lower than expected, and the driving force for the rise of the cobalt price is insufficient. At the same time, in the international market, affected by the outbreak, the supply of cobalt is expected to decline, which is good for cobalt market. However, due to the slow growth of demand, the rising power of cobalt market is insufficient, and the rising period of cobalt price is uncertain. It is expected that the future cobalt market will be stable after shocks.
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