1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in February was relatively weak, and the spot price was mostly reduced. As of Monday, March 2, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of February.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
2、 Cause analysis
Upstream: according to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic market price of propylene in the upstream of PP has been declining since February, and the overall trend is downward. Among them, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has declined all the way. In addition, social health events have affected many units in the upstream and downstream industries to stop production and repair, and the operating rate is still low. Under the pressure of inventory in some refineries, low-cost shipments have been made. There are few staged transactions in the market, and the market is cold. China’s propylene market bottomed out in May. During the period, the crude oil market changed little in terms of raw materials, but it was raised for several days in a row. The propylene production is relatively small, but the return to work of terminal manufacturers is on the rise, and the logistics and transportation are also recovering, which has a certain effect on alleviating the weak demand for propylene. The market price of propylene is expected to increase in recent days.
| PVA |
Product: in early February, the domestic logistics was not smooth, which led to the increase of PP inventory pressure in petrochemical plants. In terms of demand, although downstream factories began to resume work, there were fewer workers and lower starting load. By the end of February, the domestic logistics was further restored. At present, the sales of low-cost materials were good, and the manufacturers were consuming inventory smoothly. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure has been eased, and the confidence of operators has been boosted. In terms of demand, the downstream factories have resumed work one after another, the factory’s operating rate has increased, and there is a phenomenon of replenishment. Producers and distributors are stable in mind, and it’s OK to go single.
3、 Future forecast
PP analysts of business club think: from the result, the domestic PP spot market in February was generally weak, and the upstream propylene price rebounded to the bottom, which reflected the support of PP cost end until the end of the month. The resistance of Limited Logistics and transportation began to reduce, and the resumption of downstream factories accelerated. The demand has improved, the stock of petrochemical plants has decreased, the operators are on the market, and the orders are stable. It is expected that PP market will fluctuate or go higher in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the market of cost end propylene.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |