1、 Price trend
According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 1 was 11233 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 29 was 10633 yuan / ton, with the price down 5.34%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on March 4 is 53.15, which is the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.85% lower than the peak of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
2、 Market analysis
Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11200 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11150 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11150 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11500 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device. Hubei sanning caprolactam liquid offers 10200 / T. The plant capacity of the manufacturer is 140000 tons / year.
Industrial chain: affected by social public events, crude oil and external pure benzene declined significantly. Domestic: the downstream of pure benzene has low starting load and limited demand; the transportation is relatively limited and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active. Caprolactam maintains low load operation, with less demand for solvents, and it is expected that the purchase demand for cyclohexanone is still low. However, the recent delivery of cyclohexanone is not smooth, and the social inventory pressure is too high.
| PVA |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2020, there are 28 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluoric acid (8.40%) and fluorite (8.05%). There are 48 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 27 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 22.76%), propane (- 21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 18.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.53%.
3、 Future forecast
Caprolactam analysts of the business club think: at present, the market of caprolactam is cold, and the air atmosphere is relatively strong in the market. The demand is not good, and the current inventory is large. Due to the sharp decline of crude oil leading to the decline of raw materials and weak cost support, it is expected that caprolactam market will still fall in March, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw materials.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |