1、 Price trend
The domestic butadiene market is still low this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of butadiene in China at the beginning of the week was 6393 yuan / ton, while the market price of butadiene at the end of the week was 6223 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.66% in the week, 22.76% in the month on month ratio and 33.41% in the year-on-year ratio.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
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Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market weak finishing, with the north high price offer transaction block, the spot market back to a weak situation. Although some of the downstream terminals resumed work in succession within the week, the actual demand did not improve significantly, and the demand side did not bring a positive boost to the market for the time being, but the domestic spot supply was abundant, and the supply and demand fundamentals still put pressure on the market. In recent years, affected by the expansion of public health events, the continuous decline of bulk commodities has a certain negative impact on the mentality of businesses. In addition, the decline of butadiene market and Sinopec’s supply price continue to decline, which have brought drag on the spot market. In the short term, although the northern lower reaches just need to support the market slightly at the bottom, the market performance is still weak under supply pressure.
In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to decrease by 300 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton; the price of butadiene in Liaotong chemical industry was 5810 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; lianhengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, and some of its products were sold abroad, with a slight increase of 50 yuan / ton on a month on month basis to 5760 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s 70000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, with a quotation of 5800 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous month, the price of CFR China fell 300 yuan / ton; the impact of public health events expanded, and the price of CFR China fell 30 dollars / ton to 750 dollars / ton.
Industrial chain: SBR: this week, domestic SBR sales companies adjusted the mainstream factory price range. This week, the start-up rate of styrene butadiene plant is around 5.60%; Qilu, Yangzi, Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua and Bridgestone styrene butadiene plants are all in normal operation; Shenhua and Weitai styrene butadiene plants continue to reduce the negative operation; at present, the first-line production of solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber is planned to be scheduled to the end of this month; in addition, Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical styrene butadiene rubber plants continue to stop Vehicle.
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Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this cycle, the ex factory price of high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of the mainstream domestic sales companies has risen and fallen with each other. This week, the operating rate of domestic high cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant has slightly increased to around 6.0%. With the logistics, warehouse, etc. returning to normal operation in succession, Yangtze, Qilu and other cis-4-polybutadiene units have returned to normal operation, and the overall operating rate of cis-4-polybutadiene has slightly increased compared with the previous cycle.
3、 Future forecast
On the positive side, the start-up of synthetic rubber is acceptable, and there is a certain amount of rigid demand in the north and downstream. On the negative side, there was no price difference between the north and the south, the circulation of goods was blocked, public health events affected the decline of external and bulk commodities, and the domestic spot supply was under pressure. In short term, the price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber is obvious, and the overall commencement of rubber industry is acceptable. In addition, the rubber latex industry has been resumed in succession, and the downstream demand has brought a certain bottom support to butadiene market. However, the macro news and external market performance is short, and the domestic butadiene spot supply is still under pressure. The high upstream and downstream inventory results in slow digestion process, which makes it difficult for the supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene to show a significant positive boost. The butadiene analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will maintain a downward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal and external news guidance.
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