According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of domestic carbon black has increased this month. On October 31st, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the initial price of 11266 yuan/ton.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature coal tar has fluctuated this month. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight increase in prices, with high level consolidation and operation being the main focus. Downstream enterprises had a good atmosphere of restocking after the National Day holiday, and there was a strong atmosphere of speculation on the market. The supply of coal tar market was relatively tight, providing strong support for the cost of carbon black. Starting from the end of the decade, downstream deep processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the coal tar market prices began to decline, with differentiated market performance across different regions. The synchronous weakening of upstream coke supply and demand, weak market prices, and poor support for the cost of coal tar. Downstream deep processing enterprises continue to suffer losses, and there are obvious signs of a decline in operating rates. The enthusiasm for receiving coal tar is average.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is currently low.

In terms of terminals, this month, with the end of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” period, although tire companies have maintained a high level of construction, the demand in the terminal market is weak. From a demand perspective, supported by strong export orders, the tire industry has been operating at a high level this year. Recently, downstream tire companies have some inventory support, and most inquiries in the market are mainly at low prices, while the demand still remains just in demand. Merchants from all walks of life have average purchasing enthusiasm, and the actual shipment volume is lower than last month.

In terms of import and export, according to customs data, China imported 24700 tons of carbon black in September 2023, an increase of 296.89% year-on-year and a decrease of 7.74% month on month; From January to September 2023, China imported a total of 199000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 189.13% compared to the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 132000 tons in imports. According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in September 2023 were approximately 63100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.01% and a month on month decrease of 11.4%. From January to September 2023, China exported 530000 tons of carbon black, a decrease of 19.09% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 125000 tons.

Overall, the current carbon black market remains at a high level of operation, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in need of goods. The quoted prices in the carbon black market are strong, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term. The future trend focuses on downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8438 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price on October 30th was 8207 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 2.74%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on October 1st was 9612 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 30th was 9262 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 3.64%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9087 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price on October 30th was 8650 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 4.81%.

In October, the price of polyethylene was mainly weak and downward. The price fell significantly in the first ten days. During the National Day holiday, the international crude oil market fell, and cost support for polyethylene weakened. In order to reduce inventory, the factory prices of petrochemical enterprises have been lowered, and traders have adjusted accordingly. After the holiday, market demand fell short of expectations, and in order to promote transactions, merchants often reduced prices to sell. The shutdown and maintenance of enterprises have decreased, and the supply of polyethylene is expected to increase. The demand for agricultural film is in peak season, and the market procurement is mainly based on hard demand. The demand for packaging film during the E-commerce Festival is expected to be positive.

On October 30th, polyethylene l2401 rose 1.08% to close at 8169. Polyethylene futures have an upward trend, which may boost the spot price of polyethylene.

After November, the peak season for agricultural film will end, and the demand side may come under pressure. It is expected that polyethylene will be slightly adjusted as the main component.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak and consolidating this month, with an average market price of 2275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has decreased by 5.49%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.31%. On October 26th, the baking soda commodity index was 142.70, a decrease of 0.83 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.49% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and a 61.66% increase from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Business Society. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1900-2200 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash was relatively weak in October. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 3090 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 17.48%, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has recently consolidated and operated, with sufficient supply of baking soda. The upstream raw material of soda ash has recently been weak, and downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda need to be mainly purchased on demand in the near future. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be mainly consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

Cobalt prices have slightly declined this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 26th, the cobalt price was 268800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% compared to October 20th, when the cobalt price was 272000 yuan/ton. The news of cobalt storage has stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, but the growth of new energy vehicle consumption has slowed down, and cobalt market demand is less than expected. This week, cobalt prices have slightly declined.

Slow growth in demand for new energy vehicles

LG New Energy released its third quarter financial report, with revenue increasing by 7.5% year-on-year. However, due to slowing demand in Europe, automakers adjusting production, and falling metal prices, sales in the quarter decreased by 6% month on month. Following Musk’s concerns that high interest rates may affect sales, power battery giant LG New Energy has also raised concerns that sales of electric vehicles are expected to slow down. An increasing number of automakers, including Tesla, General Motors, and Ford, are cautious about the demand for electric vehicles, fearing that high interest rates will increase financing costs and that slowing growth in major global economies may also hit car demand. The slowdown in demand for new energy vehicles has come faster than expected, especially in the high-end electric vehicle market. The expected slowdown in demand in the cobalt market has weakened the support for cobalt price increases, and cobalt prices have slightly declined.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the national harvest and storage news has stimulated a brief increase in demand in the cobalt market, and domestic cobalt prices have rebounded and increased. However, the growth of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down, and the demand growth in the cobalt market is less than expected, resulting in a slight decline in cobalt prices. Overall, the stable supply and demand in the cobalt market are lower than expected, and the expected volatility and consolidation of cobalt prices in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for maleic anhydride has continued to decline recently. As of October 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7610.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.64% from the price of 7980.00 yuan/ton on October 16th.

The fluctuation and downward trend of crude oil market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining recently. On the one hand, macroeconomic pressure and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike have not yet been determined, and the peak oil consumption season in North America is gradually coming to an end. The bearish demand situation has correspondingly suppressed the crude oil market. On the other hand, multiple countries have strengthened diplomatic efforts on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East to alleviate concerns about geopolitical issues. This news supports international oil prices; On the last hand, the United States announced a suspension of its sanctions against OPEC member states.

Hydrogenated benzene market fluctuates, and n-butane trend drops sharply

Upstream aspect: The hydrogenation benzene market has recently experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with crude oil fluctuating downward and the industrial chain fluctuating less significantly. In the future, downstream demand still exists, and the market still follows the market trend. As of the 24th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in East China is between 7950 to 8000 yuan/ton. Affected by the downward trend of crude oil fluctuations, the recent market for n-butane has significantly declined, and as of October 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5200-5400 yuan/ton.

The downward trend of unsaturated resin market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

Downstream: Recently, maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream unsaturated resin market. In addition, the current resin supply is weak and trading is poor, resulting in an overall downward trend in the unsaturated resin market.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current raw material of maleic anhydride, n-butane, has significantly declined, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; Downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, operation is cautious. The fundamentals are weak, and the factory price of maleic anhydride continues to decline. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and dealers continue to fall. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue to decline in the short term.