Price Trend

The acetone market as a whole went ahead this week, with a high trading atmosphere and an increase in real trading. According to the monitoring of commodity data of business associations, this week petrochemical companies listed 3450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton on No. 18, the overall line was 2.07%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: On July 18, the petrochemical enterprises raised 200 yuan per ton and implemented 3450 yuan per ton. The focus of discussion on acetone market in East China has softened. Although petrochemical enterprises raised the unit price of acetone by 200 yuan/ton yesterday, the mood of terminal factory’s replenishment is not high. Holders have a strong mood for replenishment, but under the circumstance of insufficient follow-up, there are some low shippers, and the delivery atmosphere is slightly light. At present, the main negotiation range of East China market is 3400-3450 yuan/ton. Negotiations in the border market are around 3450 yuan/ton, and in the mainstream of South China market are between 3550 and 3600 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In early July, pure benzene rose rapidly, and the price of external market rose sharply, especially in the United States. Due to heavy rainfall and flooding, the production load of local factories is limited, the main insurance contract and the reduction of spot release in the United States lead to the reduction of supply. In July, propylene market prices soared like the temperature of this season. By mid-July, the mainstream transaction of propylene price in Shandong Province had risen to 7950-8050 yuan/ton. Continuous tight supply was still the main driving force to support the rise of propylene price. In addition, some long-term supply was still not fully restored and some refining units were repaired. Secondly, polypropylene futures continued to break new highs, and propylene prices reached new highs. Downstream terminals are just in need of purchasing.

3. Future Market Forecast

The mentality of acetone holders has been strongly supported, but the mood of terminal factory replenishment is not high. Although the holders have a strong sentiment, but the actual follow-up is insufficient, the business association predicts that the main negotiation range in East China market is 3400-3450 yuan/ton.

On July 18, 2019, the price of fluorine chemical industry rose and fell in the list of 10 commodities, fell in a total of 1 commodity, rose and fell to 0 in a total of 4 commodities. The declining products were trichloromethane (3.28%) and stable products included hydrofluoric acid, fluorite, aluminium fluoride and cryolite.

On July 18, the market price trend of fluorine chemical raw materials was temporarily stable. The price of fluorite raw materials was 3150 yuan/ton. Recently, some domestic fluorite plants started to work normally. Mines and flotation plants in the field started to work normally. The supply of fluorite in the field was tight. However, the recent downstream market has risen, and the price of fluorite has been affected to rise. In the southern fluorite market, the start-up of installations is general, and the price of fluorite market in the southern region has risen. As of the 18th, the domestic price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of fluorite negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of fluorite in Henan was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton.

Recent downstream refrigerant industry trend is general, the starting rate remains low, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general, but due to the reduction of on-site supply, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising. As of 18 days, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the domestic starting rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. More, enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is adequate and regular. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid on the spot has improved. Some enterprises’ex-factory prices have risen slightly. Until now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton. However, people in the field reflect the near future. Hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the market for hydrofluoric acid may be temporarily stable.

The price trend of aluminium fluoride products is temporarily stable, the supply on the market is normal, and the trading market is general. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 11,000 yuan/ton. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Shandong Luzeng Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10,800 yuan/ton. The quotation of aluminium fluoride from Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9,800 yuan/ton. The quotation of aluminium fluoride Aluminum fluoride quoted 9500 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of trichloromethane has been slightly lower in Shandong. The ex-factory price of trichloromethane enterprises is around 2,950 yuan/ton. The start-up rate of production is low. The 440,000 tons/year plant in Jinling, Shandong Province has started normal operation, the 120,000 tons/year plant in Jinmao, Dongying City has been overhauled, and the 220,000 tons/year plant in Luxi Chemical Industry has started 60% of the total. The domestic production enterprises of trichloromethane supply positive results. Often, inventory is low.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of on-site equipment is stable and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. Generally speaking, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain turbulent in the later period.

On July 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 58.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.66% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 19.93% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has been temporarily stable, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has shocked, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 5900-6100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5400-5500 yuan/ton; the mainstream of phthalic anhydride market in North China is mainstream. Quoted at 5900-6000 yuan/ton, the market price remained volatile, the quoted price of enterprises was not high downstream, purchasing on demand was the main, wait-and-see mentality was strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant was stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride was volatile.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price slightly declines. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price shocks, isooctanol prices fell, DOP costs fell. DOP price trend is temporarily stable, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7650 yuan/ton, downstream price trend is temporarily stable, and phthalic anhydride market price is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

According to the data of business associations, the domestic sulphur market declined on July 16, with the average ex-factory price of sulphur market in East China falling by 4.59% at 900 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market prices have been sharply lowered, downstream demand performance is still weak, in order to stimulate shipments, refineries in various regions have increased their prices. East China market has dropped by 40-70 yuan/ton, Shandong market by 30 yuan/ton, and North China market by 20-30 yuan/ton. At present, there is a lack of substantive information guidance in the venue, the demand of downstream enterprises is weak, the overall atmosphere is cold, and the atmosphere of standstill and wait-and-see is strong.

Industry chain: The vulnerable sorting of sulphur market continues to decline. Some acid plants have been repaired. The downstream demand performance is still weak. The market is not good. The price is low or will go down.

III. Price Forecast

According to business associations, short-term domestic sulphur market or continued shock consolidation.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on July 15 was 106366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from 103816.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 18.83% from the beginning of the year and 4.37% from the previous year. Since July 2, nickel has broken through the 100,000 mark, up 8,000 yuan/ton by 8.61%.

According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, the spot price of nickel is mostly higher than the main contract price in the near future. The main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months. The spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that people are not so optimistic about the future of nickel. The frequent rise in nickel prices is mainly due to multiple factors that cause concerns about nickel supply.

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred in Hamahei, Indonesia

At 17:10 on July 14, an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 occurred in Hamahera Island, Indonesia (0.52 degrees south latitude, 128.17 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 km and frequent aftershocks. Halmahera Island is one of the main producers of laterite nickel mines in Indonesia. Mines are mainly concentrated in Buli, Weda, Subayin, Gebe and Obi. The location of the earthquake is indeed relatively close to that of mines and ferronickel factories.

However, it is understood that although the local mines and smelters are not directly affected and the roads and wharfs in the port area are not damaged, there are mines on Obi Island and mining enterprises in Weda Bay suspended shipment. From past experience, shipment is relatively vulnerable to natural disasters, but as long as the infrastructure is not damaged, the general duration is not long, it will be restored in a few days.

Indonesian government may resume export ban in 2022

A media report about the resumption of the export ban by the Indonesian government in 2022 has raised market concerns. Indonesia eased the ban in 2017, but at the time the government said it would only last five years and would restrict exports again by 2022. But Colin Hamilton, an analyst at BMOCapital Markets, said many were sceptical that the ban would be reintroduced.

Second round of mining censorship in the Philippines

On July 9, Philippine Deputy Finance Minister Bayani Agabin said on Tuesday that the Philippine Mining Coordination Committee (MICC) will organize a second round of objective, on the basis of scientific evidence and fact-finding domestic mining project reviews in the last week of July, which will last for six months. The second round involved 17 mines in the Philippines. However, only 17 mines were inspected in this round, much lower than 27 in the first round. Therefore, in the second half of 2019, the direct impact of nickel mining in the Philippines is relatively small. At the same time, after the first round of review, the mine has begun to pay attention to the legitimacy of mining procedures.

The main sources of nickel supply are the Philippines and Indonesia. The earthquake in Indonesia and the resumption of export ban in Indonesia, as well as the resumption of 17 sound censorship in the Philippines, together with the earlier shutdown of a nickel mining plant in Vale, have caused concerns about nickel supply, which has led to a continuous surge in nickel prices. However, in the downstream demand, the new energy industry is temporarily resting, and the output growth rate of new energy vehicles is obviously declining. In addition, the actual consumption of stainless steel downstream is not as expected, the stock of society and steel mills is accumulating, and the price of stainless steel is under pressure. In summary, nickel price supply is expected to be tight, but downstream consumption is very weak, low nickel inventory is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is expected that nickel prices will remain strong in the short term and should not be overly optimistic in the long term.