This week (2026.01.12-01.16), the spot price of polyester bottle chips showed an initial increase followed by a decrease, with a decline within the week; According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the average sales price in East China was 6100 yuan/ton.
Reasons for price changes
Cost side (dominant): At the beginning of the week, due to the strong situation in the Middle East, crude oil drove PTA and MEG up, supporting bottle prices; On Thursday, the situation in Iran eased, Venezuela’s supply expectations increased, crude oil fell, PTA fell 33% to 5047, cost support weakened, and bottle flakes fell along. The aggregation cost is about 5592 yuan/ton, and the cost side has a high weight on the price impact.
Supply side: Weekly output of 334700 tons, slightly lower than the previous month; The capacity utilization rate was 72.27%, a decrease of 1.01 compared to the previous period; Partial equipment maintenance (such as Jiangyin’s 1.2 million ton equipment being shut down from mid January to March) has led to a shortage of spot goods in some areas, suppressing the decline.
On the demand side: downstream soft drink production accounts for 65-75%, oil factories account for 57%, and PET sheets account for 60%, all at a low level; Before the Spring Festival, there is a strong need to replenish inventory, with no centralized stocking, weak willingness to chase price increases, and weak transactions, which restricts price increases.
Industry pattern: By 2025, production capacity will increase by 11.2% to 22.28 million tons, with fierce competition, difficult to increase processing costs, and prices easily fluctuating with costs.
Future forecast
Business Society believes that short-term bottle tablet prices fluctuate with weak raw materials, with a reference range of 5900-6200 yuan/ton; Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and PTA, equipment maintenance progress, and downstream stocking rhythm.
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