This week (3.2-3.6), polyester bottle chips: unilateral strong rise, cost driven, futures led increase. As of March 6th, according to the price data of Shengyi Society, the mainstream spot average price of polyester bottle chips in East China is 7065 yuan/ton.
core driver
1. Cost side: Absolute dominance, skyrocketing across the entire line
Crude oil: As of March 6th, the main WTI crude oil contract has stabilized at $80 per barrel. This cost hurricane at the source quickly spreads downstream along the industrial chain. As the core raw material of PET, PTA has shown extremely aggressive performance, with the main contract closing at 5918.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41% again from the previous settlement.
Although the nominal price of PET bottle flakes has entered the “7″ mark, production enterprises are in a “passive follow-up” state. Due to the rapid increase in upstream raw material prices, the profit margin of PET bottle processing has been squeezed to the limit.
2. Supply: Low level operation, tight pattern
The production in February was 1.2314 million tons, a decrease of -11.93% compared to the previous month; The capacity utilization rate is around 66.48%.
This week’s load was 68.4%, slightly higher than the previous week but still low; Low inventory of spot goods and limited supply of low-priced goods.
Shipping in the Red Sea/Persian Gulf is obstructed, and exports and logistics are restricted, exacerbating local tensions.
3. Requirement: Prioritize basic needs and cautiously pursue higher ones
The peak season for downstream beverages/packaging has started, and the demand for essential products has stabilized; At high prices, the focus is on digesting inventory and purchasing on demand.
After the mid week surge, downstream resistance increased, and spot prices slightly rebounded on Friday.
Future forecast
Overall, the cost push caused by geopolitical factors is the core driving force behind the current PET bottle price shock of 7000 yuan/ton. As long as there is no substantial cooling of the situation in the Middle East, strong cost support will be difficult to prove.
Clear judgment: In the short term, PET bottle flakes will maintain a high volatility in the range of 7000-7500 yuan/ton.
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