1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market stopped falling and rebounded this week (1.19-23), with a significant increase this week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4560 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened this week, and the spot market has rebounded this week driven by the futures market. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the export volume has maintained growth. In addition, on the supply side, the PVC operating rate has slightly decreased this week, with some companies operating at rates below 50%. In addition, this is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side still maintains a relatively abundant level.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide in the market rebounded from a low level, and the market returned to an upward trend. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly increase of calcium carbide this week was 0.79%. The increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and PVC prices have rebounded.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, PVC supply and demand will remain stable. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a decrease in factory operating rates, and enterprise inventory is still in the stage of depletion. On the demand side, external demand remains strong, but there are expectations of a decline in downstream domestic production due to the approaching holiday season. In the later stage, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the price of PVC may show a volatile trend, making it difficult to have a strong trend. The market should view the current upward trend with caution.
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