Recently, urea quotation in Shandong and Hebei, the main producing areas, has been declining continuously. At present, the price of urea storage in Linyi, Shandong Province, varies from 2030 to 2050 yuan (ton price, the same below). Enterprises have yet to issue orders to implement. However, in recent years, there is less demand for Industry and agriculture, heavy downstream wait-and-see mentality, low purchasing intention, and the enthusiasm of traders to take goods again in the near future is relatively low, and more inventory is cleared.
Recently urea has been “out of gas”, but the price of Monoammonium is still rising. At present, the actual acceptance of 55% of powdered ammonium in Hubei has increased from 2000-2030 yuan to 2050-2100 yuan in the early period, while the actual acceptance of 58% of powdered ammonium in small factories has risen slightly to 1980-1990 yuan, from 2100 yuan in the early period to 2130 yuan in Hubei large factories, and has continued to rise to 2150 yuan in the near future, with an overall increase of 20-50 yuan. Anhui large plant 55% ammonium powder recently suspended orders, 55% ammonium powder factory quoted price in 2150 yuan, Sichuan large plant 55% ammonium powder factory quoted price after rising stability in 2050 yuan, not to accept orders for the time being.
Some insiders are confident that ammonium will continue to rise. Some insiders believe that although the price of Monoammonium is still rising, it is still too early for high phosphorus fertilizer. With the gradual decrease of demand, the market of Monoammonium is not expected. The following is a brief analysis of the favorable factors and the negative factors.
Good factors:
Restrictions on orders are pending. Recently, ammonium enterprises have not only consumed their stocks, but also received some orders. It is known that the pending orders can probably be executed until mid-early May. Recently, there is a shortage of shipments. In the active shipment of enterprises, some large factories in Hubei have issued pending orders and suspended receiving orders. Large factories in Sichuan, Anhui and other places have not yet received orders.
Start-up low, low inventory. At present, the overall start-up rate of Monoammonium is still around 50%, and only 50% of Monoammonium in the main producing area of Hubei Province. Large factories in Hubei, Sichuan and other places limit production mainly. Individual start-ups have not reached half-open. Henan and other enterprises stop production for various reasons, and some have to wait until the end of May to resume production. The overall inventory of enterprises is low, and some enterprises have basically consumed their inventory. At present, they sell with production.
Prices of raw materials have risen. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has risen sharply. The reduction of liquid ammonia in Anhui, Henan and Yunnan has led to the shortage and price increase in Hubei and other places. At present, the acceptance of liquid ammonia in Hubei is about 3250 yuan. It is known that the price of phosphate ore may also rise, mainly due to the good demand for ammonium in the near future.
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Short-term demand remains. Recently, the actual transaction of Monoammonium continues to rise slightly. Although the new price transaction is temporarily less, the demand still exists in the short term, the new single transaction of enterprises is still acceptable, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises still have a small amount of purchasing monoammonium plan.
The negative factors:
The demand for high phosphorus fertilizer is still early. The demand for high phosphorus fertilizer in autumn should wait until July and August, because ammonium enterprises consume stocks, resulting in large purchasing volume in the near future and early consumption of demand in compound fertilizer enterprises. This may slow down the demand for ammonium in May and June. The industry believes that the specific situation depends on the market situation at the end of May and the beginning of June, but at present, the demand in the later period should slow down.
Raw material sulfur callback. At the beginning of April, the price of sulphur rose to more than 1000 yuan, but recently due to the influence of external market and the slowdown of domestic demand, the price of sulphur dropped to less than 1000 yuan. At present, the price of granular sulphur in Yangtze River Port and Fangcheng Port has been lowered to around 985 yuan. The price of Puguang Sulfur Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Factory has also been revised back to 980 yuan and 860 yuan, respectively.
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Transportation was blocked in some areas. The construction of roads in Guangyuan area of Sichuan has led to obstruction of transportation. The areas affected include Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Shaanxi and other areas in Northwest China. The freight of ammonium monoxide has increased. For example, the freight of Yuncheng City in Sichuan Province increased from 120 yuan in the early period to 165 yuan in the near future, and the freight of Shijiazhuang City in Sichuan Province increased from 180 yuan to 220 yuan in the near future. If the price of Shijiazhuang Railway Station remains unchanged, the freight will rise. The price of ammonium has been reduced in disguised form, which has restrained the price increase of monoammonium.
To sum up, in the short term, the demand for ammonium is released ahead of schedule, and the demand is slowing down gradually in the near future. It is expected that ammonium may have a risk of callback in May and June. However, depending on the market situation at the end of May and the beginning of June, it is not excluded that the price of ammonium will continue to rise.
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