This week’s market review:
This week, driven by weak demand and overall weakness of the chemical sector, methanol futures prices first restrained and then rose, with a sharp drop in the focus. As of Friday’s close, MA1909 closed at 2439 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan/ton or 3.6 percent a week. The spot methanol in Jiangsu is 2 340 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton or 3.7%. The base difference of MA1909 is -99 yuan/ton (+1).
| PVA 0599 (PVA BF05) |
Fundamental analysis:
On the supply side, because the overhaul of methanol plant in Northwest China involves more capacity than compound production, the start-up load in Northwest China is 74.81%, and the ring ratio is decreased by 1.11%. In addition, some units in Shandong, Liaoning and other areas resumed operation, resulting in a slight increase in methanol start-up load throughout the country. The start-up load of domestic methanol unit is 66.58%, which is 0.11% higher than that of the previous year. For domestic plants, the 1 million ton/year methanol plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, stopped for overhaul on April 8 and is scheduled to restart next week. Inner Mongolia Rongxin 900,000 tons/ton plant stopped for 30 days on April 7. New Oda Banner, Inner Mongolia, Phase II 600,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to stop for 15 days on April 10. Inner Mongolia Yigao 300,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to start parking overhaul for 20 days on April 10. The 300,000 tons/year energy plant in Northwest Inner Mongolia is scheduled to be repaired on April 20. The start-up time of 800,000 tons/year methanol plant in Guilu, Qinghai was delayed. As for foreign installations, the commissioning and operation of Iranian Kaveh 2.3 million tons new installations have been unstable since the middle and late February, and are now in the process of parking maintenance. During the shutdown and maintenance of Marjan’s 1.65 million-ton methanol plant in Iran, another methanol plant is in stable operation. It is planned to stop for a short period of 7-10 days, and its contracted cargo is centrally queued for shipment. Inventories in coastal ports have declined this week, especially in Fujian and Guangdong. Overall coastal methanol stocks fell by 43,000 tons to 945,000 tons compared with the previous week. The methanol circulatable supply in coastal areas is estimated to be around 265,000 tons, which is more stable than the previous week. It is estimated that the arrival volume of Chinese imports will be 384,900-390,000 tons in the next two weeks, most of which will be concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang ports.
| PVA |
In terms of demand, the overall start-up load declined due to the increase of an olefin load in Shandong Province and the shutdown of the MTO plant in Qinghai Salt Lake. The average start-up load of domestic coal (methanol) olefin plant this week was 85.10%, down 0.4 percentage points from last week. Traditional demand, affected by safety inspection, some formaldehyde and dimethyl ether plants have been restored, but the overall progress is still slow. Acetic acid can reduce the shutdown load of some units.
Conclusion and suggestions for operation:
Domestic methanol market trend differentiation. Mainland market is still affected by environmental safety inspections, downstream factories are slow to resume work, and overall demand is weak. Later, with the gradual end of maintenance in Northwest China, the pressure of market supply and demand may increase. On the port side, port inventory continued to decline this week, but with the gradual resumption of overseas methanol overhaul facilities, the arrival of cargo to port in the future will concentrate or drag down the progress of depot at the port. Major MA1909 once fell below the lower edge of the oscillation zone and was temporarily supported above 2400. Fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short term. Short-term prices are expected to remain low and volatile, with a reference range of 2400-2600.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |