As of October 19, the mainstream price of white carbon black was about 5600 yuan/ton, and the price was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market remained stable, with stable upstream prices, general downstream procurement atmosphere, and fair overall market negotiation atmosphere.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 7152 in the morning, 1.79% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 7080. Short fiber raw material futures closed higher today, with PTA up 1.70% and ethylene glycol up 0.55%. The average price quoted on the domestic spot market of polyester staple fiber today is 8001 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous trading day, or 4.34% year-on-year.

Due to the activities of oil thieves and pipeline breakers, all major oil trunk lines in Nigeria have been closed, and the output in September fell nearly 25%. Today, the main forces of WTI crude oil futures and Shanghai crude oil futures rose slightly by 1.00% and 0.73% respectively (as of 16:25 Beijing time). Cost drove PTA and ethylene glycol futures to close higher today. Short fiber futures also rose today driven by stronger raw materials.

In the near future, Anhui and Yizheng plan to restart the repair of staple fiber devices, and the commencement of staple fiber will be improved; Downstream demand of staple fiber has slightly improved, but there is little change in commencement, and high inventory is not active in staple fiber procurement. Short fiber spot market trend under pressure.

In the future, polyester staple fiber may still fluctuate mainly along with the cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials and downstream orders.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 14, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and down 30.00% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 14, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25833.33 yuan/ton, 0.64% lower than the price of 26000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 40.84% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week, and the enterprise offer was stable as a whole. The price of raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly, and the overall cost of raw materials showed an upward trend. The cost played a certain role in supporting the price of R22. Affected by the fall in demand for R22 in the fourth quarter, the domestic price of R22 kept steady on the whole.

Since October, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has rebounded slightly from the bottom, the price of trichloroethylene has dropped slightly, the cost of raw materials has declined in shock, and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream demand has increased. Under the pressure of cost, the price of refrigerant R134a has declined slightly this week.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the refrigerant price fluctuated slightly this week. The prices of R22 and R134a rose and fell each other. The demand for refrigerant in the fourth quarter declined. The cost recovery has limited support for the overall price of R22 market in the future. The overall price of R134a will fluctuate slightly at the current level.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9425.00 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8816.67 yuan/ton, down by 6.45%. The price fell 11.12% year on year.

styrene

Styrene market prices fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fallen in shock, and this week the price continues to fall. The main reason is that the port inventory keeps rising, domestic styrene supply increases at the same time, styrene inventory pressure is large, it is difficult to support the styrene market, downstream demand recovery is poor, market transactions are light, and the spot price of styrene falls again and again.

In terms of raw materials, international crude oil futures fell for three days in a row, showing a downward trend. The fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor, and the price continues to fall. Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan/ton to 8000 yuan/ton before the festival. Recently, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8000-8200 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10300 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10200 yuan/ton, down 0.97%, down 13.80% year on year. PS downstream demand remains weak, and it is difficult to achieve significant volume in the market. In addition to the impact of low price offer, businesses may still sell at a small margin.

EPS prices fell this week. Overall transaction weakened month on month. At the beginning of the week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11300 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11100 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm was not high, the EPS market price was weak, the manufacturer maintained a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand was sluggish.

The domestic ABS market fell in shock this week. As of October 14, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12850 yuan/ton, up or down by – 1.15% compared with the price level at the beginning of the week. After the festival, the big factory raised its offer, but the buyer camp gradually showed resistance to the high price, and the price fell back soon after it rose.

Recently, the international crude oil market has stopped falling and rebounded, the downstream demand is expected to recover, and the supply and demand pressure of styrene has eased. On the whole, if the raw materials rise next week, the styrene market will follow the correction.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the TDI price in East China rose at a high level after the festival. As of October 13, the average market price in East China was 24366.67 yuan/ton, up nearly 4300 yuan/ton, or 21.38%, compared with the price of 20075 yuan/ton on September 30.

After the National Day, TDI prices continued to rise at a high level, with a one-day increase of 1300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of market trading, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and a small amount of follow-up is also just needed. However, the TDI price has risen continuously, why.

External market: large overseas supply gap and strong demand

The 300000 ton TDI unit of BASF Factory in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was shut down due to force majeure in March 2022.

The 250000 ton TDI unit of Hungary Wanhua Chemical will be overhauled in July 2022, and will operate under low load after restart in early September.

In August 2022, the 300000 ton TDI unit of German Malgenkostro plant encountered force majeure and has not been restarted.

The leakage of Beixi Pipeline has led to the shortage of natural gas in Europe and the restriction of factory commencement, which has once again aggravated the tension of TDI supply in the European market.

Domestic market: release of information such as factory sealing, device maintenance, limited supply of large factories, etc

On October 10, the market learned that Shanghai Covestro TDI was closed for parking, which is expected to take about a week;

On the evening of October 10, Wanhua Chemical released a notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the TDI device in Yantai Industrial Park;

On October 13, the market learned that the latest strike price of Shanghai Covestro TDI was raised by 2000 yuan/ton to 25700 yuan/ton for limited supply.

At the beginning of the month, the big factory listed the price information in October, giving the market a rising signal, and the traders’ offer rose. After the National Day, due to the impact of public health events in Xinjiang, the logistics transportation was slow, the delivery period of Xinjiang Juli was extended, and the market supply was tightened. During the week, the good news from the suppliers was stacked on top of each other. The market atmosphere was positive and the TDI price rose at a high level. Therefore, under the leadership of the supplier market, a sharp rise in TDI was inevitable.

In the future market analysis, TDI data engineers of the business agency believed that the overseas demand was strong, the focus of domestic factories tended to the export market, and many factories were limited in supply. TDI’s spot goods were tight, traders were rising at a high level, and they were reluctant to sell. Some closed orders were suspended, and the market was in a strong bullish atmosphere. It was expected that the future TDI market would continue to be strong and upward, and specific attention should be paid to the release of supplier information.