Commodity index: on March 26, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 104.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.93% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.80% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in March 2020, poly aluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers returned to work in good condition. The mainstream quotation in the domestic market: poly aluminum chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%) with tax quotation of about 1750-2200 yuan / ton, liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%) with tax quotation of about 350-450 yuan / ton, some of which have been reduced, The decrease range of solid is about 100-150 yuan / ton, and that of liquid is about 50 yuan / ton.

Upstream and downstream: according to the data of business agency, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China rose slightly this week. The quotation of Dezhou Maihua is 60 yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 10 yuan / ton; the quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, with a temporary stability; the quotation of Shanxi Wenshui is 230 yuan / ton, with a temporary stability; the quotation of Dezhou Shihua is 200 yuan / ton, with a temporary stability; the quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda is 420 yuan / ton, with a temporary stability; the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal.

Downstream: it is reported that most of the downstream water treatment projects are in the negotiation stage, and it will take some time for them to return to normal.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another. At present, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost has been normal. Before the year, the inventory was still in consumption. Some enterprises with higher inventory had slightly lower prices under the current weak demand situation.

Aftermarket forecast: the analysis of the business community believes that the current manufacturers start well, the downstream demand is light, if the market is weak. The existing supply of the manufacturer is sufficient. In the case of high inventory in the early stage, slight changes in upstream costs and general demand, the market of polyaluminium in the future will be stable and weak, and some manufacturers have certain price concessions.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of March 25, the price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 5400.00 yuan / ton, the cost end support collapsed, and the demand for polyester bottle chips has not yet shown any obvious signs of improvement.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: pet factory’s inventory pressure has been reduced, and the willingness to continue to reduce prices is cautious. The polyester bottle Market in East China is weak. Now, the main manufacturers offer around 5500-5600 yuan / ton, and the main market talks about 5200-5350 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the PTA Market of polyester raw materials maintains consolidation, with general cost support. Some bottle chip manufacturers offer lower prices, the focus of market negotiation is weaker, the downstream is mainly cautious, and the market trading is light.

Industry: on March 24, pet commodity index was 40.60, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 60.87% lower than the highest point of 103.76 on September 22, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that: downstream cautious wait-and-see, market trading light.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has maintained stable operation after a short rise. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2150 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2300-2450 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2080 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2350-2400 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton About RMB / T; about RMB 2450-2500 / T for delivery in South China.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: affected by the reduction of centralized maintenance, the price of domestic acetic acid rose briefly in the early stage, with an increase of about 50 / T. however, at present, the overall market still presents a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downstream market is dominated by consumption contracts, and the substantial demand of the market has not improved. With the recovery of parking maintenance, the market supply will be further improved. In order to reduce the subsequent inventory pressure, the enterprise intends to Let the profit ship.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market continues to decline, the consumer market declines, and the inventory in various regions accumulates. At present, the average price is about 1702 yuan / ton, down 15.82% compared with last month; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries continue to operate in a weak position after a short rise, with a large drop in price, weak market negotiation, and low demand in the downstream; with the continuous decline of international oil price and the downstream Due to the influence of factors such as the lack of market procurement, PTA market fell sharply, reaching the lowest value in ten years. Due to the rapid decline of cost side and the suppression of supply and demand, it is expected that the turning point of the rise is still difficult to come.

International: the acetic acid Market in North America has been affected by the continuous decline of methanol, with a sharp drop in price, which is about 595 US dollars / ton at present; the acetic acid Market in Asia has been affected by the overhaul of enterprises, with a significant drop in inventory, but the demand is still poor, with a current price of 285-340 US dollars / ton; the acetic acid Market in Europe is in a weak operation, with obvious pessimism, with a current price of 595 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, with the recovery of production of enterprises and the sharp decline of methanol price, the favorable factors in the early stage are gradually weakened. Due to the lack of improvement in the downstream market, the negotiation in the industry is short and the pessimism spreads, and it is expected that the market will be weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. On March 23, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1702 yuan / ton. The price was 15.82% lower than that of the same period last month and 27.86% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: affected by financial risks, domestic methanol spot continued to decline, with a sharp decline in the northwest of the main production area, and the price in Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi dropped to 1400-1550 yuan / ton; the consumption market fell synchronously. The methanol social inventory of ports in East and South China continued to increase, with a total inventory of 1031500 tons. Among them, the inventory of East China increased, and that of South China went to storage this week. The inventory accumulation in Jiangsu area is mainly due to the concentration of Taicang and Nanjing to the ship, but the pick-up volume in the week has not been significantly improved. The reason for Guangdong to go to the warehouse is that there are few imported ships this week. It is expected that the ships arriving at the port will be delayed due to the unloading at the last port.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is running low as a whole. The overall market started to improve, the supply increased significantly, the upstream methanol market continued to decline, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises decreased significantly, and the theoretical profit was considerable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, resulting in the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment, and the overall transaction was light.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market ended a one month continuous decline trend, with an overall 30-50 range increase. The 550000 ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang was shut down and overhauled as scheduled, which eased the situation of continuous oversupply in the market. The price offered by the supplier was mainly stable, and all parties in the market were full of wait-and-see atmosphere in the later period.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether fluctuated downward, and the trading atmosphere was weak. After the breakdown of OPEC production reduction negotiations, there has been no good news on the market, but bad news began to increase. It has a great impact on the downstream liquefied gas and dimethyl ether. At present, the price of the mainstream enterprises in the main producing area of dimethyl ether in Henan Province has dropped below 2600 yuan / ton. Although the main enterprises intend to support the market after the maintenance of Yima Kaixiang, the effect is expected to be effective, and the price will fluctuate according to the old low level after the short-term rise.

3、 Future forecast

Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran’s gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment is in crisis, which leads to the prominent pressure of domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants is panicked. Although the price has fallen to the historical low, there is little intention to copy the bottom and speculate. At present, the financial environment and the international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic market price of dry process aluminum fluoride remained stable this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 9166 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9166 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. In the near future, the situation of on-site manufacturers’ delivery has improved. Some on-site manufacturers have not resumed production. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, the purchase demand has increased, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite remains high. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported to some extent, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid remains high As of the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11500 yuan / ton. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride of most manufacturers remained stable, and some manufacturers will not open aluminum fluoride devices until April. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, and the price of aluminum fluoride is mainly stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business and chemical branch, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable at present, and the market price of downstream aluminum fluoride is stable as a whole. It is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will continue to be stable next week.