1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, the melamine market did not change significantly on the 23rd. In recent years, the operation rate of melamine plant has slightly decreased, but at present, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream demand has not been substantially improved, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. As of April 23, the average price of melamine enterprises was 5100 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 4.37% lower than that of April 1. On the 23rd, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 4600-5300 yuan / ton.

On April 22, the melamine commodity index was 54.84, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 45.16% lower than the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on April 22, the urea market in Shandong fell slightly, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the downstream was weak. The future market expected the urea price to fluctuate slightly. This week (4.20-23), the domestic liquid ammonia market fell slightly, most manufacturers reported stability, some manufacturers were affected by the inventory pressure, slightly reduced the quotation, and there was a downward action in the middle of the week, with the range of 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of liquid ammonia in the northern region is about 3000 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on April 22, 2020, among which the top three commodities are acetone (2.99%), ethyl acetate (1.21%) and acetic anhydride (0.73%). There are 19 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were ethylene (- 5.41%), styrene (- 3.56%) and mixed xylene (- 2.22%). The average price of this day was – 0.21%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the melamine market is expected to be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, from April 12 to 20, the propane market went up and down like a roller coaster. On April 12, the average price of the propane (Shandong) market was 3107.5 yuan / ton, and on April 20, the average price was 3175 yuan / ton. During this period, the propane price increased by 2.17%, while the amplitude of the earthquake reached 37.97%. Until April 21, the trend was stable.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: as of April 20, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group has no propane in stock, so the price is not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3350 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3300 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3150 yuan / ton.

On April 12-20, propane saw a sharp decline after a crazy rise, and the trading atmosphere of the market was obviously weakened. In the early stage, the rapid expansion of polypropylene, the raw material of respirator, led to the sharp expansion of propylene, while propane, as the upstream of propylene, took the opportunity to keep up with the expansion. Manufacturers in Shandong generally rose 750-1350 yuan / ton, which was too strong and lacked basic support. In just three days, it ushered in a rational callback. After skyrocketing, the downstream is more cautious and wait-and-see, the market entry mood is not good, the upstream shipment is blocked, and the inventory gradually increases. And then propylene ushered in a significant correction, propane fell with propylene, the market returned to rationality. Until April 21, prices gradually stabilized.

Propylene: on Saturday (11th), propylene was generally increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton, and on Sunday (12th), it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton. On Monday, after a weekend surge, the market may need to be digested. On the 13th, the price of most enterprises was roughly unchanged. On the 14th, the price of most enterprises dropped by 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them recovered to the price before the surge. On the 15th, the price dropped by 500-1000 yuan / ton, and on the 16th Georgia continued to decline by about 200 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price still fell by about 400 yuan / ton. On Saturday (18th), it made up for the drop. On Saturday, the market turnover was between 5850-6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was between 5850-6000 yuan / ton.

Latest CP price: Saudi Aramco announced in April that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $230 / T, down $200 / T from last month; butane $240 / T, down $240 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Future forecast

Last week (April 13-17), under the influence of downstream propylene, the propane market rose sharply and fell sharply. The downstream mentality was cautious, and the market was mainly on the sidelines. There was no obvious positive support in the international market. The manufacturer’s shipment was not smooth, resulting in the accumulation of inventory. With the price reduction, the terminal may have the expectation of replenishment, and the propane market is expected to adjust mainly in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt fell slightly in April. Since March, the price of cobalt fell sharply. However, since April, the decline of cobalt Market slowed down and the price of cobalt fell slightly. As of April 20, the price of cobalt was 247000.00 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from the average price of 251500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market situation

Sales volume of new energy vehicles

On April 10, the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that the production and sales performance of new energy vehicles in March was significantly better than that of last month, with a rapid growth rate on a month on month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed compared with February. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 50000 and 53000 respectively, a 3.8-fold and 3.0-fold increase on a month on month basis, a year-on-year decrease of 56.9% and 53.3%. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 105000 and 114000 respectively, down 60.2% and 56.4% year on year. Sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply. Sales of new energy vehicles picked up in March, but it was still far lower than expected, with a significant decline in demand. Cobalt market is bad.

Mobile phone production and marketing

According to the data of China Academy of communications, in March 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 21.756 million, down 23.3% year on year. From January to March 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 48.953 million, down 36.4% year on year. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand fell sharply. In March, the sales volume of mobile phones significantly recovered from that in February, but compared with the expected 5g mobile phone exchange trend, the performance of mobile phone market at this stage is far lower than expected, and cobalt market is relatively negative.

3、 Future prospects

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business agency, the performance of new energy vehicle market and mobile phone market has recovered to some extent in March, and the demand for cobalt market has recovered, the downward pressure of cobalt market has weakened, and the downward trend of cobalt price has slowed down. However, the performance of the new energy vehicle market is far less than that of the same period last year, and the global automobile market has fallen sharply, which has a certain negative effect on the domestic cobalt market. The growth of the sales volume of the mobile phone market, especially 5g mobile phones, is the main driving force for the expected increase of the demand of the cobalt Market in 2020, but the sales volume of the mobile phone market has not increased, on the contrary, it has fallen sharply, the demand of the cobalt market is far lower than expected, and the driving force for the rise of the cobalt price is insufficient. At the same time, in the international market, affected by the outbreak, the supply of cobalt is expected to decline, which is good for cobalt market. However, due to the slow growth of demand, the rising power of cobalt market is insufficient, and the rising period of cobalt price is uncertain. It is expected that the future cobalt market will be stable after shocks.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the quotation of Sinopec orthobenzene contract was stable this week, while that of orthobenzene was stable this week. As of April 17, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 4200.00 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton or 10.53% compared with 3800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The price is 37.31% lower than that of the same period last year. The market of orthobenzene has recovered.

2、 Market analysis:

After a period of bottoming rebound, the price of mixed xylene stabilized this week. As a whole, the price of raw materials of o-xylene rose this week, the cost of o-xylene rose, the momentum of o-xylene rising was great, which was good for the market of o-xylene. However, the price of mixed xylene tends to be stable, and the increase of o-benzene weakens.

Since April, the market of phthalic anhydride has recovered, and after 14 days, the price of phthalic anhydride began to rebound in retaliation. However, in terms of market demand, the phthalic anhydride market is stagnant, the downstream demand has not seen explosive growth, and the increase of ortho benzene market is limited.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of the business association, the domestic market has started gradually, the domestic demand has grown steadily, and the demand for o-xylene has picked up. However, due to the retaliatory rebound of phthalic anhydride price, the growth rate is too fast, which has certain harm to the rising of the market of ortho benzene in the future, and the driving force of the rising of ortho benzene in the future is insufficient. It is expected that the market of orthobenzene in the future will be mainly stable.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to rise. As of April 16, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method was 5100 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased substantially, the demand of plasticizer industry is normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride has gradually increased.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has continued to rise. At the beginning of April, the market price of phthalic anhydride hit a record low, but at the later stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is better than before, the delivery market of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is better, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. By the end of 14 days, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China had risen, but the high-end transactions in the market had been blocked. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4700-5400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4300-4600 yuan / ton. The main flow of quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4700-5100 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride in the market was still there, the market was improved, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec rose to 4200 yuan / ton. The market trend of imported phthalic anhydride in port area is stable, and the price is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in port area is general, and the price of phthalic acid external market declines. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the detailed discussion shows that the operation of phthalic anhydride equipment is basically normal, the supply of phthalic acid is stable, and the price of phthalic acid upstream raw material is affected by the rise of phthalic acid price The market price of anhydrides continued to rise.

The prices of phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, DOP raw materials and DOP enterprises in the lower reaches of DOP increased. DOP enterprises operated at low load and DOP manufacturers had more stocks. The price of DOP rose, the equipment of PVC enterprises started to operate at a low level, and the enthusiasm of customers’ procurement recovered. The price of plasticizer is rising, the market price of DOP is about 7100-7400 yuan / ton, the transaction of market plasticizer is picking up, the price trend of upstream ox is rising, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise in the later period.