1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on May 21 was 2680 yuan / ton, down 8.57% from the beginning of the month and 24.51% from the same period last year. On May 21, the LNG commodity index was 65.73, down 0.33 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 68.54% from 208.96, the highest on December 25, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The figure above shows the price trend of LNG in some regions in China. In May, the price of LNG in China fell continuously. It only rose briefly at the beginning of the month, and then began to fall continuously. Now it has fallen out of the historical low, with an average price of 2680 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 21, the LNG price of star energy in Inner Mongolia is 2620 yuan / ton, 400 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 2650 yuan / ton lower than that of Thailand in Inner Mongolia, 310 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 2700 yuan / ton lower than that of Sentai in Inner Mongolia, 280 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 2250 yuan / ton lower than that of numao Lake (east of Lanzhou), Guanghui, Xinjiang, 600 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 3000 yuan lower than that of Qinghua, Xinjiang Yuan / ton, 600 yuan lower than the beginning of the month; the price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy LNG is 2730 yuan / ton, 260 yuan lower than the beginning of the month; the price of shengdazhou LNG is 2650 yuan / ton, 380 yuan lower than the beginning of the month; the price of Dazhou Huixin energy LNG is 2870 yuan / ton, 430 yuan lower than the beginning of the month. Liquid prices in all regions have declined to varying degrees.

At present, the domestic LNG market is in the off-season, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Since the recovery of toll collection from the highway, the transportation cost has increased, and some coal hauling vehicles have been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the demand for vehicles in the gas filling station, and the demand for existing vehicles has steadily increased, but it still fails to meet the expectation, resulting in a high inventory of the liquid plant and a pressure drop in the price. At the same time, Huanggang, Hubei Province started operation, the terminal has a relatively dense shipping schedule in the near future, the supply of goods in the yard has further increased, and the LNG supply in the market is relatively loose, but the supply-demand relationship is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the market is still weak.

On May 20th, PetroChina West feed gas no longer continued the fixed price of 1.57 yuan / m3, and was adjusted to implement the step price mode according to the unit load. The benchmark price is 1.48 yuan / m3, the intake load is more than 80%, and the gas price is 1.332 yuan / m3. The more gas is used, the cheaper the feed gas price will be. This advantage increases the adjustable space for liquid price, temporarily alleviates the cost inversion situation of some liquid plants, and there is a small rebound signal in some areas, but domestic LNG is difficult to improve under the condition of insufficient demand follow-up. Moreover, with the convening of the two sessions in Beijing, production is limited and shut down in some areas, and industrial gas consumption is reduced again, which aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. The rebound of LNG in the future depends on the improvement of demand side.

In April, 16.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced, up 14.3% year on year, 3.1 percentage points faster than last month, with an average daily output of 540 million cubic meters. From January to April, 64.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced, up 10.3% year on year. In April, 7.73 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.0% year on year. From January to April, 32.33 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.5% year on year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 20, 2020, among which the top three commodities are power coal (2.97%), MTBE (2.86%) and liquefied gas (1.18%). There are four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were asphalt (- 1.14%), Brent crude oil (- 0.46%) and petroleum coke (- 0.44%). The average price of this day is 0.44%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business association, at present, there are plenty of goods in the market, some liquid plants have maintenance plans, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. The lower cost of raw gas boosted market sentiment, but domestic LNG market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to demand drag.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on May 20, the spot nickel price was 103133.33 yuan / ton, up 0.55% compared with the previous trading day, up 4.69% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 102600 yuan, followed by a narrow range of price fluctuations, closing at 102580 yuan, up 0.49%. LME3 ended 0.94% higher at $12375 at the end of the month.

2、 Market analysis

In the near future, nickel price fluctuated broadly, and downstream stainless steel consumption improved significantly, which brought good results to nickel price, and nickel price fluctuated slightly. At the supply side, the epidemic has an impact on Indonesia’s nickel, mainly focusing on the flow restriction of personnel and equipment transportation, affecting the construction progress of new projects in the future. The Philippines has relaxed the isolation measures since May 16, but due to the restrictions of personnel flow and port quarantine and isolation measures, the shipping efficiency has not been restored to the normal level. It is expected that the recovery of phenanthrene ore will be obvious until June, and the supply of nickel ore will be gradually relaxed. Tight supply also supports nickel prices.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: under the influence of the epidemic, since the second quarter, the port nickel mine has maintained the trend of going to the storage, the price of nickel mine has been strong to support the cost of nickel and iron, and the epidemic situation and crude oil problems have prolonged the shipping period. In the next two months, the domestic nickel mine supply is still tight to support the nickel price. Nickel price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term.

Market situation: after the May Day holiday, the port unloading difficulties of phenol Market and the good news of the equipment maintenance and other supply areas were released. The phenol market rose rapidly. At one time, the price in East China rose to 7000 yuan / ton, up 10% in the week after the holiday (as of May 10). However, the demand did not pick up. The market was obviously in conflict with the high price, and the intermediate traders had no intention to participate in it. The market rose sharply The market in East China fell to 6450 yuan / ton and fell rapidly after the sharp rise. For a while, the shipping volume in North China was controlled and the port stock was insufficient after the ship arrived at the port One point five Ten thousand tons, although the import source was supplemented in mid May, the overall phenol supply was still under no pressure. Phenol market rose again at the opening of this week. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listed price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market offer in East China is 6650-6700 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6850 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and surrounding Yanshan is 6900-6950 yuan / ton. This week, the market opened up 150-350 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comment: the main raw materials pure benzene and propylene market continued to rise, with strong cost support. First of all, look at the pure benzene market. Sinopec’s price of pure benzene has risen to 3250 yuan / ton. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil this week has stimulated a good atmosphere for domestic pure benzene negotiation. Some pure benzene enterprises in Shandong have raised their offer again. Up to now, the price of pure benzene is 3200-3650 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream factories is as follows: Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 3200 yuan / ton, Yangzi Petrochemical Company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, Hainan refining chemical company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, Wuhan ethylene company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, petrochemical company quoted 3500 yuan / ton, Beijing Bo petrochemical company quoted 3650 yuan / ton, Dongming Petrochemical Company quoted 3500 yuan / ton, Huifeng petrochemical company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, Jincheng petrochemical company quoted 3500 yuan / ton.

Another important raw material propylene market, the propylene market has maintained a unilateral upward trend since May 1st, and continued to rise steadily. Up to now, the main transactions in the propylene market are more than 6800 yuan / ton, and this month’s cumulative upward trend 15.88% The downstream market of propylene is broad and the plant operation rate is high. The demand for propylene is stable and the purchase is up. The propylene shipment is smooth. The current propylene inventory is still low and short-term Propylene will still maintain a steady upward trend.

The downstream market is firm. One of the important downstream markets, bisphenol a market, is affected by the upstream of the downstream PC, and the major markets are up slightly. The “helmet” policy stimulates the upstream of the PC market. However, the impact on the market of bisphenol A is not obvious, but most traders hold a low price attitude. In terms of bisphenol a plant, Sinopec Mitsubishi plant will restart after shutdown, and other major mainstream plants will not report temporarily The panel is mainly used for downstream devices or for household. At present, the quotation of bisphenol a market in East China is 9700 yuan / ton, the quotation of bisphenol a market in North China is 9800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of bisphenol a market in Huangshan is 9800 yuan / ton. The downstream resin factory is under normal operation, and the quotation of resin is slightly improved.

Future market forecast: in this week’s opening phenol Market, under the favorable situation of tight supply, the holders actively push up the market and gradually increase the offer. The supply pressure of the holders is not great and the mentality is positive. At present, the intermediate traders are cautious in hoarding goods. The terminal factories just need to buy into the main market and the actual transaction is average. The business community expects the phenol Market to steadily push up or consolidate in the short term. The market should pay more attention to the reality It is estimated that the reference offer of East China market is 6750-6800 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

On May 18, spot copper was 43296.67 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day and 11.7% from the beginning of the year, down 9.64% year on year. LME copper 3-month contracts rose 1.20% to $5247.5. Shanghai copper’s main contract soared to 43270 yuan, or 0.32%, in the morning.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the improvement of domestic industrial data, the market’s optimistic sentiment picked up slightly, copper futures rose slightly, but spot copper prices slightly recovered. Basically, the supply of copper goods is limited, and the downstream keeps rigid demand. Most transactions are mainly received by traders, with general activity. Peru gradually recovers its economy. Large mines take the lead in resuming construction. The speed of port collection and shipment is accelerated. The tight supply pattern of overseas mine ends is eased. Copper mine delivery is gradually recovered. However, port transportation and shipment still need to queue up. The short-term supply of copper concentrate remains tight. Domestic end consumption is improving. However, the global economy is declining, the epidemic situation is likely to be repeated, and there is pressure above copper price 。 However, the price of refined copper and waste gradually returned to normal, and the substitution effect of refined copper weakened.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of the business society think that: supply is tight to support copper price, domestic demand has improved, but affected by the global economy, the sharp rise of copper price is restricted, and copper price is expected to maintain the trend of strong shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate: About 2650% powder; about 2750% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2250-2380. The price of potassium sulphate in Southwest China has slowed down, but it is still at the top of the domestic market. The ex factory price of 52% water-soluble powder is about 2900 yuan / ton, while the external price is still over 3000 yuan / ton. The price of potassium sulphate in Northwest China is also slowing down, and the ex factory price of 50% powder is about 2450 yuan / ton. SDIC’s potash plant has entered the maintenance period in summer, and the current inventory can maintain normal supply and shipment. Some manufacturers of potassium sulfate in Qinghai water salt system said that they would adjust it after the new price of potash was determined. Some manufacturers have reduced the arrival price of 50% powder to 2250 yuan / ton, and temporarily expanded the scope of customers.

3、 Future forecast

The seasonal demand for potash fertilizer is low, there is still surplus in stock, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. With the overall low price of potassium chloride Market in the later period tending to be stable, potassium sulfate may be affected to some extent, the price will also be lowered, and the pressure of water salt potassium sulfate will gradually increase in the later period. Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: potassium sulphate is in a stable position in the short term, and the later stage mainly depends on the trend of potassium chloride.