1、 Price trend
According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on May 21 was 2680 yuan / ton, down 8.57% from the beginning of the month and 24.51% from the same period last year. On May 21, the LNG commodity index was 65.73, down 0.33 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 68.54% from 208.96, the highest on December 25, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The figure above shows the price trend of LNG in some regions in China. In May, the price of LNG in China fell continuously. It only rose briefly at the beginning of the month, and then began to fall continuously. Now it has fallen out of the historical low, with an average price of 2680 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 21, the LNG price of star energy in Inner Mongolia is 2620 yuan / ton, 400 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 2650 yuan / ton lower than that of Thailand in Inner Mongolia, 310 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 2700 yuan / ton lower than that of Sentai in Inner Mongolia, 280 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 2250 yuan / ton lower than that of numao Lake (east of Lanzhou), Guanghui, Xinjiang, 600 yuan lower than that of the beginning of the month, 3000 yuan lower than that of Qinghua, Xinjiang Yuan / ton, 600 yuan lower than the beginning of the month; the price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy LNG is 2730 yuan / ton, 260 yuan lower than the beginning of the month; the price of shengdazhou LNG is 2650 yuan / ton, 380 yuan lower than the beginning of the month; the price of Dazhou Huixin energy LNG is 2870 yuan / ton, 430 yuan lower than the beginning of the month. Liquid prices in all regions have declined to varying degrees.
At present, the domestic LNG market is in the off-season, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Since the recovery of toll collection from the highway, the transportation cost has increased, and some coal hauling vehicles have been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the demand for vehicles in the gas filling station, and the demand for existing vehicles has steadily increased, but it still fails to meet the expectation, resulting in a high inventory of the liquid plant and a pressure drop in the price. At the same time, Huanggang, Hubei Province started operation, the terminal has a relatively dense shipping schedule in the near future, the supply of goods in the yard has further increased, and the LNG supply in the market is relatively loose, but the supply-demand relationship is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the market is still weak.
|POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER|
On May 20th, PetroChina West feed gas no longer continued the fixed price of 1.57 yuan / m3, and was adjusted to implement the step price mode according to the unit load. The benchmark price is 1.48 yuan / m3, the intake load is more than 80%, and the gas price is 1.332 yuan / m3. The more gas is used, the cheaper the feed gas price will be. This advantage increases the adjustable space for liquid price, temporarily alleviates the cost inversion situation of some liquid plants, and there is a small rebound signal in some areas, but domestic LNG is difficult to improve under the condition of insufficient demand follow-up. Moreover, with the convening of the two sessions in Beijing, production is limited and shut down in some areas, and industrial gas consumption is reduced again, which aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. The rebound of LNG in the future depends on the improvement of demand side.
In April, 16.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced, up 14.3% year on year, 3.1 percentage points faster than last month, with an average daily output of 540 million cubic meters. From January to April, 64.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced, up 10.3% year on year. In April, 7.73 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.0% year on year. From January to April, 32.33 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.5% year on year.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 20, 2020, among which the top three commodities are power coal (2.97%), MTBE (2.86%) and liquefied gas (1.18%). There are four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were asphalt (- 1.14%), Brent crude oil (- 0.46%) and petroleum coke (- 0.44%). The average price of this day is 0.44%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of business association, at present, there are plenty of goods in the market, some liquid plants have maintenance plans, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. The lower cost of raw gas boosted market sentiment, but domestic LNG market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to demand drag.