1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on May 1 was 1962 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on May 31 was 1856 yuan / ton, with the price falling 5.39% in the month.

According to the data in the business club’s large list, on May 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2196 yuan / ton, on May 31, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2156 yuan / ton, and the price fell 1.75% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: this month, the monoammonium phosphate market was weak, and the price was stable and fell. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 1950 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: this month, the market demand for diammonium phosphate is insufficient, and the market trend is slightly lower. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2150-2200 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton. 64% of mainstream diammonium in Gansu Province is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton. The first station quotation of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang Province is about 2450 yuan / ton.

Upstream: the domestic sulfur market is stable and rising, and the port sulfur price is rising. However, there is not a large number of transactions in the market. The cargo holders in the port are not eager to ship, and the buyer also goes with the market. The quotation of domestic refineries is slightly adjusted. On May 31, the reference price of sulfur was 526.67, up 2.6% from May 1 (513.33). This month, the phosphorus ore market as a whole was weak, the market was weak, and the downstream support was insufficient. On May 31, the reference price of phosphate rock was 393.33, which was 3.28% lower than that on May 1 (406.67).

Downstream: the market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not clear, this month’s weak operation, the price fell slightly. Compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw material ammonium phosphate, with reduced demand and increased equipment maintenance. The north and South are close to the end of fertilizer preparation. In the short term, due to insufficient demand, the market will continue to be weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 1 rising commodity, 4 falling commodity and 0 rising and falling commodity in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities that rose were phosphoric acid (1.96%); the main commodities that fell were yellow phosphorus (- 7.82%), monoammonium phosphate (- 5.39%) and phosphate rock (- 3.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 3.26%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the raw material market of ammonium phosphate rose and fell in May, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is insufficient. Some orders of monoammonium phosphate are received in advance, and the inventory pressure is reduced. The domestic demand of DAP is reduced, the supply is reduced and the export competition is fierce. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will be weak and stable in the later period.

In May, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose steadily. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 5320 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 5980 yuan / ton, up 12.41% in the month, down 30.74% compared with the same period last year.

The market of cyclohexanone rose steadily. From the perspective of cost, the market of pure benzene fluctuated in a narrow range, forming a stable support on the cost side. From the supply side, the start-up of cyclohexanone off the shelf unit was on the low side in the month, Chongqing Huafeng was restarted in early May, Shandong Haili off the shelf unit was not exported from the end of April to the middle of May, the off shelf sales of Luxi Chemical decreased, the Bank of China cyclohexanone unit in Jining was restarted at the end of May, the price of phenol cyclohexanone was hung upside down, the phenol cyclohexanone plant was shut down for maintenance under the influence of cost factors, and the off the shelf inventory pressure of the plant in May was not large. In the downstream caprolactam market, the spot supply is tight and the profit is good, and the chemical fiber orders are continuous in the month, forming a good support for the demand of cyclohexanone. On the whole, the supply and demand side is good in the month, and the market presents a stable and rising situation.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: this month, the price of pure benzene in China is on the rise. In the month, due to the heavy inventory pressure in the East China market, the spot price rose first and then fell, but the price in the far month was driven by crude oil, the price rose and the transaction was active.

Caprolactam: the market of caprolactam rose rapidly in the first ten days of May, on the one hand, it was strongly supported by the cost end. On the other hand, it received the support of tight supply. After May 1st, the restart time of Tianchen Yaolong was slightly delayed, the restart time of orchid science and technology innovation was delayed, and Jiangsu Haili device failed to restart in May. In addition, the early short-term failure and load reduction concentration of Cangzhou Xuyang, Shenma, sanning, petrochemicals, Juhua, Yangmei, Shandong Haili and other units, while the polymerization plant started actively, leading to the tight supply of caprolactam in the early stage, and the seller actively increased.

Adipic acid: in May, the price trend of adipic acid continued the weak trend of last month. The price was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of business agency, the price of adipic acid turned red in May, but the monthly decline was only 0.61%. The dealers’ quotation was mainly up and down, mostly fluctuating in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of May 29, the mainstream quotation of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

*** There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

In the future, the short-term cost support is relatively stable, the profit of making cyclohexanone from pure benzene is fair, the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is relatively balanced, the inventory pressure of the factory is not large, and the price difference near 3000 yuan / ton of cyclohexanone caprolactam, considering the cost factor, the downstream chemical fiber procurement enthusiasm or decrease, the cyclohexanone analyst of the business society predicted that the cross plate operation of cyclohexanone in a short time. There is still uncertainty in the long-term chemical fiber purchase demand, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the raw material price and chemical fiber demand.

With the gradual strengthening of international crude oil price and the smooth promotion of domestic resumption of production, the price of chemical products also ushered in “spring”.

PVC price rose 23% in two months

On May 25, most of the chemical commodity prices in the domestic futures market strengthened. By the end of the afternoon, PVC main contracts rose 0.58% to close at 6070 yuan / ton in 2009.

Affected by novel coronavirus pneumonia, crude oil prices and global demand declined, PVC futures prices had a short-term crash in mid March to early April. However, as international crude oil prices recovered, PVC prices gradually recovered their previous decline.

From April 1 to now, PVC main contract in 2009 started up from 4950 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 23% in less than two months.

“As a commodity with strong financial attribute, PVC futures price has a significant impact on the spot market. In the near future, PVC price is active, which also drives the spot price to strengthen synchronously. ” Tong he, an analyst with business news agency, pointed out in an interview with securities times · e company.

As of May 22, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5700 yuan / ton to 6100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5980 yuan / ton ~ 6080 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 6030 yuan / ton ~ 6080 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6180 yuan / ton ~ 6200 yuan / ton, and the real deal can be negotiated. The spot price of domestic PVC continued to rise, the center of gravity moved up, the low-end price was less, and the mainstream price was around 6000 yuan, which boosted market sentiment.

“The weak price of PVC in the early stage makes the market have the phenomenon of partial profit hanging upside down. However, after the recent rise, PVC manufacturers are generally in the state of profit, and they have a strong mentality of pricing.” Tong he said that the export volume of PVC was large before, but the demand of overseas market affected by the epidemic is very weak, so the main focus of the current market is the domestic market. After April and may, infrastructure construction and real estate have also entered the peak season. The recovery of pipe and profile enterprises is fast, and the demand for PVC has been boosted. In addition, the demand for cable and medical industry continues to be strong, and the demand for other downstream products is still slowly recovering.

At the same time, some PVC production enterprises still have maintenance plans in the near future, the output is reduced, the social inventory continues to decline, the supply of goods in South China is still tight, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, some areas have the market for looting goods, the practitioners are optimistic, and the supply side is good for PVC price rising.

Strong price of various chemical products

In addition to PVC, the recent domestic chemical commodity prices have shown a warming trend. The price of raw materials has increased significantly, boosted by the recent concept of helmet demand.

According to Baocheng Futures Research Report, the price of some ABS helmet materials rose rapidly last week, with some brands rising by more than 1000 yuan / ton. PS and EPS also have some materials for helmets production, so market buying is also boosted. Styrene demand is expected to strengthen. With a notice from the Ministry of public security not forcing electric vehicles, styrene coolly fell back. On the whole, styrene continues to maintain a shock up state of two in and one out.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in last week’s list of commodity prices, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in rubber and plastic sector, including one commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were pet (5.38%), ABS (3.46%) and PVC (3.34%). There are two kinds of commodities with a decline in price on a month-on-month basis, and one kind of commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products with a decline are PP (melt blown) (- 9.3%) and PA66 (- 0.78%).

“Previously, the market had judged that after the outbreak, the gradual resumption of production in China will bring a certain demand for compensation. At present, the market has a rebound of replenishment. Judging from the commodity price trend in April and the first ten days of May, we can be sure that this trend has appeared. ” Talking about the factors of the recent strengthening of domestic chemical commodity prices, Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng futures financial research institute, told the securities times · e company that the rising of chemical commodity prices has a lot to do with the cost recovery brought by the recovery of international crude oil prices. In addition, the “two sessions” are currently held, and the market expectation for policies also has an incentive effect on commodity rebound.

Can chemical products “spring” last?

Is this trend of chemical commodity price recovery sustainable?

“At present, it is worth noting that the replenishment of chemical products demand brought about by the squeeze of orders in the early stage may have basically ended by the middle of May. If the chemical products in the later stage want to maintain the rising channel, it depends on the sustainability of demand replenishment.” According to Cheng Xiaoyong, the previous order squeeze mainly focused on the period of complete shutdown in February, with a total time of about one month. PMI’s orders in hand data has rebounded from March’s high, and after squeezing order delivery, the strength of catching up will be weakened. In terms of this logic, if the chemicals enter the ascending channel again, it needs more advantages.

He believes that the whole chemical industry has entered a stage of rebound caused by the demand supplement brought by the resumption of production. However, to say that it has completely entered the recovery stage, this definition cannot be made at present. The price rise of different varieties is closely related to the demand. PVC and other products are closely related to real estate infrastructure construction, so the strength of rebound is high. The price trend of chemicals in the later period depends on whether there are more boosting factors in the subsequent demand.

“At present, it is at the key point of switching between the old logic and the new logic. The global epidemic is still continuing. Although the possibility of negative oil price after the crude oil recovers is not very great, it will also encounter the ceiling after rebounding to $40 / barrel.” According to Cheng Xiaoyong, the current recovery of crude oil price is not caused by the recovery of overseas demand, but by the spontaneous production reduction of enterprises. The scale of spontaneous production reduction in the market is a little larger than the scale of the original agreement on production reduction. The rebound is a contraction of the supply side, not an increase in demand.

In view of the price trend of PVC products, Tong he thinks that the price of PVC is at a relatively high point at present, but at present, it includes macro policies and the convening of the national two sessions. In the short term, it is a favorable factor for PVC, and there is still some room for commodity prices to rise.

In May, polybutadiene rubber suffered a weak shock. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early May was 7800 yuan / ton, then rose to the monthly high of 7875 yuan / ton, and fell to 7712 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 1.12% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On May 30, the CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 23.17, which was flat with yesterday, 77.37% lower than 102.40 (2011-09-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.48% higher than 22.61, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In May, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was insufficient, and the pressure on the supply and demand side was still large. In May, the start-up of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was normal, the overall start-up rate was 60-70%, and the start-up rate was around 70% in the first and middle of this month. Although the start-up at the end of this month declined, the overall inventory pressure was still large. According to the monitoring of the business agency, by the end of the month, Shunding units such as Yanshan, Qilu, Maoming, Jinzhou, Daqing, Dushanzi, Sichuan, and Lande had been started normally; the early-stage shutdown of Yangzi Petrochemical was being restarted; Huayu, Shengyou and Fuxiang continued to stop. The downstream tire factories started to increase slightly, and more cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was purchased on demand. By the end of May, the operating rate of half steel tire was 62%, and that of all steel tire was 71%. According to the business agency, the output of synthetic rubber in January April 2010 was 2.067 million tons, down 5.1% year-on-year, while the output of tire outer tubes in January April 2010 was 218072000 pieces, down 17.4% year-on-year. From the data point of view, although the output of synthetic rubber has also declined at present, the output of tyres affected by the epidemic situation and export has declined more than that of the same period last year, and the pressure of supply and demand from the perspective of industrial chain is still large.

In May, the price of international crude oil rebounded sharply, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene raw materials rose with the trend. The cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber formed a certain support. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene rose in May in China. At the beginning of the month, the price of butadiene in China was 3890 yuan / ton, rising to a high of 4345 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, the price fell to 4184 yuan / ton, up 7.56% from the beginning of the month as a whole.

Future forecast: according to business analysts, although the price of raw materials has rebounded at present, the negative influence of demand is still strong. On the whole, if there is no maintenance plan for later petrochemical manufacturers or crude oil does not rise again, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will still be weak.

1、 Price trend

This week’s lead market (5.25-5.29) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 14418.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14381.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 0.26%.

On May 29, the lead commodity index was 87.52, down 0.23 points from yesterday, 34.69% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 17.27% higher than 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

In terms of futures market, the trend is weak this week. Affected by foreign events, the trend continues to fall this week, with a weekly drop of about 1%. Shanghai lead rose at the beginning of the week and then entered the decline channel. On Friday, it finally closed at 14165 yuan / ton, down about 320 yuan / ton.

Influenced by Shanghai lead, the price of domestic spot market remained stable on Monday, and continued to decline after Tuesday’s price rise. As of Friday, the price of spot market was around 14200-14350 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of only 0.26%. May is the traditional off-season of downstream lead batteries. At present, the stock of lead ingots in the spot market is relatively high, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly poor. In addition, the import of lead into the market this week, there are many sources of goods in the market. With the increase of starting load of manufacturers in Jiangxi and Yunnan, the supply of regenerated lead is better.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which silver (1.70%), aluminum (1.56%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (0.93%) are the top three commodities. There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were zinc (- 0.65%), lead (- 0.26%) and nickel (- 0.21%). This week’s average was 0.22%.

The business agency predicts that the favorable impact of the two conferences on policies will further affect the metal market next week, and the commencement of domestic industries will gradually get on the right track. The overall market environment is good. The spot lead market has sufficient supply in the near future, and some low-cost goods sources appear. In the short term, the low price of lead will mainly fluctuate. In June, some domestic lead ingot manufacturers have maintenance plans, and the supply will be reduced There will be a small support for market prices.