Author Archives: lubon

The off-season for consumption is approaching, and the PP market is returning to consolidation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was consolidating and operating in mid May, with most brand products experiencing narrow price adjustments. As of May 21st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7440 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.56% compared to the price level at the beginning of May.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In mid May, the US China talks released many positive signals such as the suspension of tariffs, and crude oil prices continued to rebound. At the same time, the decoupling of domestic propane trade is expected to gradually be lifted, and the cost pressure on PDH manufacturing enterprises may decrease in the future, but the differentiation of demand will hinder the growth rate. There are expectations of loose supply in the propylene sector, leading to price fluctuations and adjustments. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts in Europe have eased, the OPEC+production increase agreement continues, and the current situation of weak economy and demand still exists. Overall, in mid May, the prices of various PP raw materials fluctuated, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
In mid May, the load of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with small fluctuations, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level is almost the same as 77% in the first half of the year, with an average weekly total output of about 750000 tons. Although companies such as Juzhengyuan and Jinneng Chemical have maintenance plans, the restart of Lanzhou Petrochemical has basically smoothed out the production capacity lost during interval maintenance. In addition, with the production of 1.4 million tons of new capacity in the next quarter, there is a clear expectation of loose supply in the future. Although the total domestic inventory has decreased to 860000 tons, it is still at a high level. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
In mid May, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season, while stocking maintained a weak and rigid demand situation. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises has returned to the off-season level first. With the passing of the small peak in material usage, the release speed of PP demand in fields such as construction and agriculture has slowed down. Under the influence of the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the United States in the early stage, market confidence has been strengthened, and there is a high expectation of a rebound in PP export consumption in the future. The export resistance of downstream PP products in China has decreased. However, the industry still needs to go through a process of simplification to offset some of the positive factors. The current buyers’ purchasing operations are still cautious and biased towards scattered small orders, although there has not been a significant increase in new orders in the market. Overall, the performance of the PP demand side in mid May was average.
Future forecast
In mid May, the domestic PP market prices were consolidating. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. The industry has abundant supply, with slight inventory digestion, and consumption entering the off-season level. The current outcome of the China US talks still has a positive impact on the upstream and downstream of PP, but the market is dominated by supply and demand, and the increase is not as expected. It is expected that the PP market will enter a consolidation weak market in the short term.

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Formic acid shipments increase, prices plummet significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% formic acid in China has experienced a significant drop recently. As of May 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society formic acid was 2500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.71% within 5 days and 26.47% within 30 days.
On the supply side, top companies are all operating at high rates. There is sufficient supply on site.
In terms of demand: The main demand for formate salt market is average, and there is an overall urgent need for replenishment. The demand in the leather industry is weak, with small inquiries in the terminal market being the main focus, and trading is sluggish. It is expected that the demand market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation in the short term.
In terms of cost: The market position of methanol has been consolidated. As of May 20th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.3% within 5 days; The sulfuric acid market is running smoothly. As of May 20th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society is 595 yuan/ton, and there has been no increase in the past 5 days.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the recent high formic acid production rate, high inventory, and cost decline will lead to weak formic acid prices in the near future. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

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Adhesive short fiber finishing, stable price

Last week (May 12-18, 2025), adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly executed preliminary contracts, and the adhesive short fiber market was consolidating and operating, with prices remaining stable. The upstream raw material market is not performing well, while the downstream market is holding onto rigid demand procurement in multiple dimensions. The support from both the cost and demand sides is weak, and the release of newly signed orders in the market is limited. Operators mainly execute preliminary contracts, and the market price of adhesive short fibers is stable and organized.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 18th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous week’s price.
In terms of cost: Last week (May 12-18, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolution slurry, a slight rebound in the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali, a continuous decline in the market price of sulfuric acid, a narrow decline in the market price of raw materials, and a slight decrease in the average production cost of adhesive short fibers.
Supply demand: During the week, some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have increased their operating rates, resulting in an increase in industry supply. The tourist cotton yarn market has a strong atmosphere of observation and price stalemate. Insufficient orders have been placed in the terminal market, and downstream yarn companies still have a certain amount of raw material inventory. Coupled with high finished product inventory, a small number of orders have been signed on demand, and there has been no improvement in demand. As of May 18th, the price of 30S cotton yarn spun by ring spinning in Jiangsu region is around 17375 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market may operate weakly and steadily, the auxiliary material liquid alkali market may have an upward trend, and the sulfuric acid market or the overall market remains stable. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will be inconsistent next week, and the cost support will be average.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; Downstream yarn factories mainly consume raw material inventory and have a weak willingness to replenish raw materials. They may maintain rigid procurement, making it difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market will perform poorly next week.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may experience weak consolidation, and downstream yarn market procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. The expected trading atmosphere in the market is flat. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements next week, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13300 yuan/ton for acceptance.

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Supply and demand improvement&futures market linkage: PVC prices rise this week

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market reversed its decline this week (5.12-16), and prices rebounded significantly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4782 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.87% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere improved this week, reversing the downward trend since May. On the one hand, driven by the futures market, the spot market has significantly improved and prices have rebounded. On the other hand, the market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand. This week, the PVC production rate remained stable, and there was no significant increase in supply. The production rate remained at a balanced level, but market transactions have significantly improved. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
Cost side: The price of calcium carbide in the market has not changed much this week, with a slight decline. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide has slightly decreased by 0.62% this week. The main reason for the high price decline is limited cost support, and the upward trend of PVC prices in this round is mainly driven by supply and demand. Although there is no positive news on the cost side, the increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will remain stable in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers is expected to remain stable in the middle and late stages. Although the inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals in the later stage. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

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Cost supported adipic acid market rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in mid May, favorable factors hit, and the domestic adipic acid market rebounded, with a two-day increase of over 2%. Due to the significant decline in the previous period, the overall increase was close to 1%. On May 9th, the average market price of adipic acid was 7166 yuan/ton. On May 15th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7233 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93%.
Cost support: Domestic adipic acid market continues to rise
In mid May, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid rose one after another, leading to improved demand in the end plastic industry and continuous price increases for adipic acid manufacturers. The domestic adipic acid market has seen an improvement in transactions and a rebound in the market. As of May 15th, the average market price of adipic acid has fallen to 7100-7400 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of May, with the support of rigid demand in the terminal industry and an upward trend in raw material prices, the market for adipic acid will continue to fluctuate and rise in the future.

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