On June 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.45, down 0.32 points from yesterday, down 53.01% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 16.58% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5400-5500 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the market is weak. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6000 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be about 5750 yuan/ton.

On June 11, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 11th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price talks in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen, up to 11 days, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has slightly declined. As of 11 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The rising price trend of cruise raw materials has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

Market Review

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise this week. The average price of dichloromethane in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 3100 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 3100 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.65% in the week.

quotations analysis

Product: This week, due to the tight supply of dichloromethane market as a whole, the quotation of enterprises continued to rise, enterprises and traders shipped smoothly, but the downstream market demand is still flat, mostly just needed. At present, the quotation of bulk water remittance in Shandong is around 3150 yuan/ton, 3600-3700 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 3550 yuan/ton in Jiangxi. In terms of start-up, at present, 50% of Jinling chemical plant is in operation; Jinmao Dongying stops and overhauls until the end of June; 60% of Shanxi chemical plant is in operation; Jiangsu science and culture plant is in normal operation; Jiangxi science and culture plant is in normal operation, etc.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic natural gas market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is low. At the beginning of the week, the average market price is 3543 yuan/ton, the average weekend price is 3526 yuan/ton, with a drop of 0.47% in the week. The supply of liquid chlorine market is tight, the downstream market demand is weak, and the overall performance of the industry is stable. Enterprises overreport 400-700 yuan/ton. Domestic R410a market shocks and adjustments, refrigerant downstream market just needs, market trading atmosphere is still acceptable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that there is still a big gap in the supply side of the dichloromethane market, which is difficult to make up in the short term. The downstream market just needs to buy, which is good for supporting dichloromethane prices. The dichloromethane market is expected to soar in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic toluene Market as a whole was weak last week. The price of toluene fell compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the price of enterprises declined and remained stable at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5112 yuan per ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5002 yuan per ton, with a decline of 2.16%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices fell earlier this week. Due to the influence of the Dragon Boat Festival holidays on the weekend, the mainstream turnover in the market is around 4950 yuan/ton. Toluene manufacturers are losing money. Port stocks in East China are around 53,000 tons, up 0.16 million tons from 51,300 tons on May 30 (last Thursday). Spring inspection of domestic toluene factories has been completed, parking devices have been started, and the market supply has increased. Some downstream units of toluene were put into operation in July, and it is expected that demand side will restrict the rise of toluene price in June.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, affected by the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and trade wars, European and American crude oil futures fell to their lowest level since January this week. Brent crude oil range was between $60.63 and $64.49 per ton, with a weekly decline of about 5.99%.

On the downstream side, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is declining, downstream PTA plant is unstable, upstream cost surface oil prices continue to decline, naphtha and MX are difficult to support, cost demand is double negative, short-term PX price is weak; on the TDI market, end users are mostly stockpiling in the market at present, demand has been obviously overdrawn, follow-up market is difficult to say optimistic, while TDI suppliers are large. After bulk delivery, inventory pressure is likely to weaken. Under the supply-demand game, the TDI market ends weakly and steadily. Overall demand is constrained by the rise in toluene Market prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that in general, the market of toluene is still expected to be weak next week. Focus on whether US crude oil can sustain $50/barrel, vulnerable shocks are more likely; downstream PX device starts, the market mainly focuses on Sinochem Hongrun PX device starts, but at present other major downstream purchasing intentions are general, the buying atmosphere is insufficient, inventory continues to be high, the market is in a stalemate stage.

On June 5, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 5th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is temporarily stable.

Recently, domestic nitric acid prices have risen, with the market price of 1760 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The rising trend of nitric acid prices has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has risen slightly, and the price quoted by manufacturers in northern areas has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The price of raw materials in the upstream is rising, which has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.