According to media reports, since the beginning of 2019, the price of disperse dyes has come to an end, and related products have witnessed two rounds of increases on January 1 and February 12. Recently, the transaction of disperse dyes has been gradually active, and a new round of increase was welcomed on March 18.

At present, the dyestuff demand peak season has come, dyestuff demand of printing and dyeing enterprises will increase, and this year, the stock of printing and dyeing enterprises and distributors before the Spring Festival has decreased compared with previous years, which will further increase dyestuff rigidity demand of printing and dyeing enterprises. It is expected that the factory price of disperse dyes will continue to rise in the first half of this year, and the performance of industry companies is expected to improve. Relevant companies include Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Shares, Jihua Group, etc.

Last weekend, Dow Chemical, the silicone giant, announced an overall increase in the prices of siloxane, polymers, sealants and silicone rubber, up to 10%, with the new price coming into effect on April 1. Other silicone manufacturers and traders, such as Xinyue, Wake, KCC and Maitu, have been following up the price increase, ranging from 5% to 10%.

Institutional data show that in the first week of March, the domestic silicone market transaction price increased by about 300 yuan/ton. Last week, the transaction price continued to rise by 500 yuan/ton.

Wake Chemicals is responsible for organosilicon business executives told reporters that organosilicon prices have risen all the way since the Spring Festival this year, especially upstream, with different varieties, with an average increase of 10% to 15%.

According to the analysis, the price increase of silicone originates from the rising downstream start-up rate and considerable stock reserve. It is said that the stock of many large downstream factories has been increased to the end of March, resulting in compact single factories row orders, low inventory, organic silicon intermediate DMC quotation continued to pull up.

Baichuan information data show that since March, the start-up rate of domestic organosilicon monomer device 3 has gradually increased, and at present, the start-up rate of domestic devices has been maintained at more than 80%. As of March 14, the total production capacity of single unit units in 14 major domestic monomer production enterprises was about 3.035 million tons.

“At present, the monomer enterprises start work normally, but the inventory is still at a low level. With the active downstream orders, the peak season of superimposed demand is gradually coming, and the price probability of silicone continues to rise. Yang Owen, an analyst at Chuancai Securities, said.

The downstream of silicone industry chain also transfers cost pressure through price increase. Following the price increase letter issued by silica gel enterprises at the end of February, only half a month later, some silica gel enterprises issued another price increase letter last week, announcing the price increase of their products.

“With the construction and other industries start to improve, the downstream products of silicone entered the peak demand season in March.” Pu Qiang, an analyst at the Resource and Environment Research Center of Guojin Securities (600109), believes that after a rapid decline in the previous period, the price of silicone products has fallen to a historic low. At present, downstream enterprises have a good desire for low-price purchasing, and the demand for purchasing has also rebounded. The industry is in a state of booming supply and demand. The overall price of products has rebounded, and the profit margin of enterprises has been restored.

“At present, the enterprises are fully started, the market is booming both in supply and demand, the inventory is at a low level, and the downstream orders are in good condition.” Li Wenjing, an analyst at Open Source Securities, predicts that the market will continue to warm up as the peak demand season approaches.

Analysis of Coal Transport Railway and Port Operation around Bohai Sea

Last year, 2.38 billion tons of coal were transported by national railways, an increase of 10.3%. Among them, the Daqin Line completed 451 million tons of cargo, Shuohuang Line completed 316 million tons of cargo, Mongolia-Hebei Line completed 54.05 million tons, Wari Line completed 33.95 million tons, all increased year on year.

This year, China’s economic construction continues to develop rapidly, urbanization is speeding up, electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents is expected to maintain growth momentum, and coal demand remains growth momentum. This year, it is expected that the Daqin Line will deliver 455 million tons of goods, the Shuohuang Line will complete 32-330 million tons of goods and the Mengji Line will complete 7-80 million tons of goods.

Looking back last year, the Da-Qin line completed 451 million tons of cargo, of which 401 million tons were flowing to the Bohai Rim Port and the rest to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Power Plant. In sub-ports, the Daqin line flows to 203 million tons of coal in Qinhuangdao Port, 123 million tons in Jingtang Port and 74.29 million tons in Caofeidian Port.

Last year, Guotou Jingtang Port completed its coal throughput of 5.39 million tons, mainly relying on the Daqin-Cao Railway Line, all of which come from the Daqin Railway. The total coal throughput of Beijing-Tang Laogang is 32.14 million tons. It mainly relies on the Daqin-Qiancao-Luangang Railway Line, and the gathering ports are all from Daqin Line. The 36-40 Luan berth in Jingtang Port has a coal throughput of 40.81 million tons. It mainly relies on the Daqin-Qiancao-Luangang Railway Line, and the gathering ports are all from the Daqin Line.

Last year, CITIC completed 71.3 million tons of coal throughput in Caofeidian Port, 34.39 million tons in the second phase of Caofeidian Coal and 22.65 million tons in Huaneng Caofeidian Port. The above coal resources come from 74.29 million tons of Daqin line and 54.05 million tons of Mengji line.

Last year, the Shuohuang Railway completed 316 million tons of freight traffic, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year; the annual coal traffic exceeded 300 million tons for the first time. Coal mainly flows to Huanghua Port and Tianjin Nanjiang Coal Terminal, and part of it flows to the power plants along the line. Last year, Huanghua Port completed coal throughput of 203 million tons, while Shuohuang-Huangwan Line formed a supply support for Tianjin Shenhua Coal Terminal. Last year, Tianjin Shenhua Coal Terminal completed coal throughput of 45.1 million tons.

This year, the planned shipment volume of Daqin Line is 455 million tons. Affected by the competition between Mongolia-Hebei Line and Shuohuang Line, part of Inner Mongolia’s resources flow to Mengji and Shuohuang Line, resulting in increased market competition pressure. In addition, the construction of Qinhuangdao Port, the supporting port of Daqin Line, without follow-up coal terminal in Hong Kong, has limited the annual coal shipment volume of Qinhuangdao Port to 18-210 million tons, and the possibility of a substantial increase is very low. In the next few years, the annual traffic volume of Daqin Railway will remain basically 450 million tons, with little room for increment.

This year, the volume of goods shipped on the Shuohuang Line is expected to be limited compared with last year, reaching 320-330 million tons. The throughput of its supporting port, Huanghua Port, has increased slightly from last year. This year, the coal throughput of Huanghua Port and Shenhua Coal Terminal in Tianjin is expected to reach 21.1 million tons and 45 million tons respectively.

This year, the increment of the Mengji Railway Line is between 2000 and 30 million tons, and its supporting ports, Caofeidian Port III, are relatively abundant in transport capacity; the designed transport capacity of the three ports is 200 million tons, and the coal throughput of the three ports completed last year is 125.34 million tons, and the throughput will continue to increase.

With the increasing proportion of natural gas in energy consumption, coal bed methane and other unconventional oil and gas resources have great potential to supplement.

Coalbed methane (CBM) is a hydrocarbon gas occurring in coal seams, mainly composed of methane, adsorbed on the surface of coal matrix particles, partially dissociated in coal pore or dissolved in coal seam water. It is an associated mineral resource of coal and belongs to unconventional natural gas.

The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development and Utilization of Coal-bed Methane (Coal Mine Gas) proposed that by 2020, two or three industrial bases of coalbed methane should be built; the extraction capacity of coalbed methane will reach 24 billion cubic meters, of which the surface production of coalbed methane is 10 billion cubic meters and the utilization rate is more than 90%; the extraction rate of coalbed methane is 14 billion cubic meters and the utilization rate is more than 50%; the installed capacity of coal-bed methane power generation is 2.8 million kilowatts, and the 80 thousand households.

Dominant geometry

“China is one of the countries with the richest reserves of coalbed methane in the world, but due to the limitation of mining technology, the production of coalbed methane needs to be improved.” Randeep S. Grewal, president of CBM Exploration and Development and Producer G3 Exploration Co., Ltd., told First Finance and Economics: “China has large reserves of coal resources. Before mining, it is necessary to extract CBM, otherwise it will endanger the safety of miners. In addition, even if the coal mine is not mined, CBM will naturally slowly escape into the atmosphere and become one of the sources of greenhouse gases.

It is known that if CBM is directly discharged into the atmosphere, its greenhouse effect is about 21 times that of carbon dioxide. As a fuel, its calorific value is equal to that of natural gas, and it is a clean energy which can be mixed with natural gas. The gas explosion rate of coal mine will be reduced by 70% to 85% if gas is extracted before coal mining.

Open data show that China’s CBM reserves account for about 15% of the global total, ranking third in the world, behind Canada and Russia. However, due to the complex geological environment, coal seams are fragile, faults are serious and permeability is low, there are many technical challenges.

“In the course of more than 20 years’development in China, we have seen that many foreign and local enterprises are interested in CBM, but many companies have left this field because of technology and other reasons.” G3 Exploration Co. Ltd. developed LiFabric technology, which allows drilling bits to cross multiple faults in a single well through a drilling solution for sieve pipes beneath fragile coal seams, Grivo said.

At present, G3 Exploration Co., Ltd. has eight blocks in China, mainly located in Shanxi, Jiangxi, Anhui and Guizhou. It has 559 billion cubic feet of 2P reserves and 2386 billion cubic feet of 3P reserves. Among them, 47% of the participants in Chengzhuang District, Shanxi Province, and 53% of the partners in Petroleum. 147 wells are expected to be drilled in the southern Shizhuang block of Shanxi Province in cooperation with CNOOC. The way of cooperation is to sign the product sharing contract, arrange different operators according to the contract, and operate through JMC.

“Two of the eight blocks have been commercialized. At present, 1 600 wells have been completed, of which 500 wells have been sold. In the next 12 and 18 months, more gas will be supplied. Some of the coalbed methane produced at present will enter the pipeline of West-East Gas transmission, and some will be used in power plants and downstream gas stations.” Grivo said.

Recently, calls for the extension of OPEC and its allies’existing oil production cuts to the end of this year have intensified. The Joint Ministerial Production Reduction Supervisory Committee of OPEC and allies, which oversees the performance of oil-producing countries, is scheduled to meet in late March in Azerbaijani. Meanwhile, the major oil producers, led by OPEC, will meet in Vienna from April 17 to 18 to review the current production reduction plan. At present, the market generally believes that the joint production reduction measures of OPEC and non-OPEC countries will continue until the end of 2019, but because of the deterioration of the global economic environment will lead to the reduction of oil demand and other factors, oil prices will not rise significantly in the future.

Consider extending the cut-off agreement

Saudi Arabia proposes to extend the existing oil production reduction agreement until the end of 2019, according to a source close to OPEC quoted by the Russian Tass Agency and the International Telegraph Agency. The news pushed up international oil prices on the 12th. By the end of the day, light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange had risen 0.14% to close at $56.87 a barrel, while London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery had risen 0.14% to close at $66.67 a barrel.

The Tass news agency reported that Saudi Arabia preferred to maintain existing provisions or “a more relaxed quota for production cuts”. The International Telegraph Agency revealed that the major oil producers, led by OPEC, will meet in Vienna from April 17 to 18 to consider whether to extend the cut-off agreement until the second half of this year, and that countries will meet again at the end of June to discuss production issues.

According to the confirmation of the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijani, Russian Energy Minister Nowaka confirmed that he would attend the 13th Joint Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and Allied Countries in Baku, capital of Azerbaijani, from 17 to 18 March, which would discuss the current level of production reduction.

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Khalid Falkh, said on November 11 that OPEC-led production cuts are unlikely to end by June. Another Saudi official also said the country planned to keep crude oil production well below 10 million barrels a day in April and cut exports to less than 7 million barrels a day to ease the problem of excess oil supply. Karsten Fritsch, an analyst at the German Commercial Bank, said this showed Saudi Arabia’s determination to maintain the balance of the oil market by keeping oil supplies tight.

On December 7, last year, OPEC reached an agreement with non-OPEC oil-producing countries to reduce the production of crude oil by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1, 2019, on the basis of last October’s production, with a preliminary set period of six months. Saudi Arabia’s target output is about 10.3 million barrels per day.

But according to foreign media reports, Saudi oil production in January was 10.24 million barrels per day, fell to 10.13 million barrels per day in February, and will further decline to 9.8 million barrels per day in March.

Previously published OPEC February report showed that from December last year to January this year, OPEC has achieved the largest reduction in output for two consecutive months, with Saudi Arabia leading the way. Falh promised to increase production cuts, suggesting that Saudi Arabia’s output would be nearly 500,000 barrels a day lower than the quota by March this year. According to a survey released last week by S&P Global Platz, OPEC output fell to its lowest level in nearly four years in February.

Falkh has been advocating an extension of the cut-off agreement from the beginning of this year to the end of the year. Farleh said on February 27 that before reaching a reduction agreement at the end of last year, “OPEC and its allies” experienced a significant increase in production, which directly led to the supply of crude oil did not decline, but the stock of crude oil increased sharply. “We are committed to balancing the market, and according to the market outlook, we must continue to control production in the second half of the year,” Fallich said. But at the same time, we will continue to be flexible and make decisions based on assessing market conditions.

Insufficient momentum for continued oil price rise

Since this year, the two major international oil prices have changed their declining trend in the fourth quarter of last year and both have risen by more than 20%. However, in a recent survey conducted by Reuters, respondents expected the average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2019 to be $66.44 per barrel, lower than the expected $67.32 a month ago. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), a statistical agency affiliated to the U.S. Department of Energy, released a short-term energy outlook report on December 12, predicting that the global average price of Brent crude oil in 2019 will be $63 per barrel, and will fall to $62 per barrel in 2020, much lower than the $71 per barrel in 2018. Some analysts believe that such expectations mean that oil prices will not rise much this year.

Market participants believe that the current level of international oil prices reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market. Before the emergence of new stimulus factors, the possibility of a sharp rise in crude oil prices is minimal. Richard Gori, head of Asia operations at JBC Energy in Austria, believes that current oil prices are in a “pleasant” price range for both oil producers and consumers.

As far as the relationship between supply and demand is concerned, on the one hand, the supply of crude oil decreases and increases mutually; on the other hand, the growth rate of crude oil demand may slow down.

Over the past two months, OPEC’s output has declined sharply and the action of oil-producing countries to reduce production has been further strengthened, which is an important factor in maintaining stable oil prices. However, crude oil production in the United States and Canada is still rising.

On the demand side, the demand for international crude oil has decreased due to the expansion of new energy applications and other factors. Relevant agency data show that U.S. manufacturing data is weak, and crude oil demand in the U.S. market is now weak at the end of last year. In addition, international agencies’expectations for economic growth this year have been lowered, and global economic growth in 2019 will be slower than in 2018, which will reduce demand expectations for crude oil. OPEC forecasts that global economic growth will not exceed expectations this year and that global demand will fall to 30.59 million barrels per day in 2019. Gene McGillian, an analyst at Traditional Energy, said concerns about slowing economic growth and reduced oil demand had put pressure on international oil prices, which could offset the boost from OPEC’s crude oil supply cuts.

Overall pattern or change of international oil and gas industry

Later this year, the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia in exports of petroleum products such as oil, gas condensate and gasoline, CNN reported. Reported that, driven by the boom of shale industry, the United States will become the world’s major exporter of oil and gas condensate. Driven by the shale industry, U.S. oil production has more than doubled in the past 10 years, reaching its highest level ever.

EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 12.3 million barrels per day throughout 2019 and increase to 13 million barrels by 2020. Meanwhile, EIA expects net imports of crude oil from the United States to fall to 1 million barrels per day in 2019 and further to fall to 100,000 barrels per day in 2020. EIA believes that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States is expected to become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.

On November 11, Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at Cambridge Energy Week: “The second wave of the shale oil revolution in the United States is coming, which will affect the overall pattern of the international oil and gas industry.” Birol pointed out that since 2018, the United States has led the growth of global oil supply. By the end of 2024, U.S. oil exports are expected to increase to 9 million barrels a day, exceeding Russia’s, approaching Saudi Arabia’s level, and diversifying the global oil supply side.