On September 26, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 105.18% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level. The average domestic fluorite price was 2877.79 yuan/ton as of the 26th day. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For fluorite market, purchasing on demand, fluorite went on the spot. The goods are in poor condition and the fluorite market price is stable for the time being. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton. Fluorite price trend remained low.

The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite market has been slightly lower. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,100 yuan/ton as of 26 days. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 22, the phosphate ore market has been running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations have quoted prices for 30% of domestic grade phosphate ores at an average price of 330-430 yuan per ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the phosphorus ore market has not fluctuated and continues to operate steadily. At present, the phosphorus ore market transaction is stable. Enterprises supply old customers’orders sporadically. The atmosphere of new orders transaction is slightly light. Some mining enterprises plan to stop production and reduce production. In the near future, the market digests inventory mainly to reduce production and maintain stable quotation. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou is 370 yuan/ton (including tax), the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 350 yuan/ton (including tax), and the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fanshan Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd. in Hebei Province is 530 yuan. / Tons (including taxes), 28% phosphorus ore from Liushugou, Hubei, quoted 420 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: The market of yellow phosphorus is stable for the time being, the stock is near the end before National Day, and the downstream supply is mainly sporadic. The net phosphorus turnover refers to 18500-20000 yuan per ton. Phosphoric acid market is supported by raw material cost, with upward intention, but the downstream is cautious to wait and see, with limited acceptance of high price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that: in the short term, it is expected that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate steadily.

Price data

According to the data of business associations, the market price of sulphur in East China declined slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of granular sulphur was 596.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of granular sulphur was 580.00 yuan/ton. The average price of granular sulphur dropped 16.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, it fell by 2.79%, 55.42% compared with the same period last year. The light soda commodity index on September 20 was 89.23, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.29% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic sulphur market continued to be weak, and refineries in different regions continued to decline according to their own shipments. As of the 20th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong area of Sinopec is around 580 yuan/ton, while that of liquid sulfur is 490-570 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in North China is 480-530 yuan/ton, that of liquid sulfur is 450-490 yuan/ton, and that of solid sulfur is stable; that of solid sulfur in East China is 620-700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 550-670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week’s price.

Industry chain: The price trend of downstream sulfuric acid Shandong market slightly declined this week, with a weekend quotation of 216.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.98% lower than 223.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 57.10% lower than the same period last year. This week, the price of the main sulphuric acid producers in Shandong fell slightly, the inventory of the producers was small, the downstream demand was small, the downstream acid market was weak, and the market price is still expected to decline.

Industry: At present, the domestic sulphur market demand is low, the stock consumption in Hong Kong is slow, there is no information guidance for the internal and external market, and the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing is weak. In the absence of information guidance in the market and the weak intention of the buyer, the market atmosphere is strong, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, and the hollowness of the business is obvious.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market lacks information support, the enthusiasm of on-site negotiations is weak, the mindset of the operators is mainly impasse, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to continue weak consolidation.

Price data

Petroleum coke prices rose slightly this week (9.16-9.20). According to the data from the business associations’list, the average price of petroleum coke products in domestic refineries was 1 238.20 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week, 1 242.20 yuan per ton at the end of the week, up 4 yuan per ton in the week and down 0.32 percent in the week.

The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on September 20 was 96.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.90% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 44.45% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke shipments are stable this week, prices remain stable as a whole, and some enterprises fluctuate slightly.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was $54.85 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $58.13 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 5.98%; Brent crude oil was $60.22 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $64.40 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 6.94%. Saudi Arabia’s oil equipment was attacked early this week and the market rose in panic. Since the attack, the situation has stabilized. Saudi Arabia has not reduced its oil exports, and American inventories have increased. International oil prices have soared and fallen.  Downstream: The trading of calcined coke is stable this week, the demand of downstream carburant market is still optimistic, and the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminium market is relatively stable.  According to business association data, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of September 20 was 14296.67 yuan per ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). Among them, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities rising are liquefied gas (7.87%), Brent crude oil (6.94%) and WTI crude oil (5.98%). ) There is a total of 1 kind of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and diesel oil (-0.77%) is the product of the decline. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that the market price of petroleum coke has risen slightly this week. At present, refinery stocks are low. Carbon enterprises basically take delivery according to plan. The market demand of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminium is stable. With the National Day holiday approaching, refineries have been actively clearing their warehouses in the near future. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will be stable in the near future. Some enterprises will fluctuate slightly. The price range is about 1200-1300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has risen sharply in recent days and slowly declined. At the beginning of this week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7 850 yuan per ton per week; Tuesday was 8 04yuan per ton per week; at the end of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7 904 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69% and a weekly fluctuation of 1.96%. The price of propylene jumped sharply on Monday. The price of propylene on Sunday (September 15) was 7673 yuan / ton, and it jumped 4.31% on Tuesday (September 17).

II. Analytical Review

Products: The prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1, 2, 3-5 and 6-8 respectively, slightly decreased by 50 yuan/ton on September 10, increased by 50 yuan/ton on September 11 and stabilized by crude oil on December 15. The prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1, and increased by 12-15. The range jumped up, rising about 300/ton on 16 and 17 days, and the price was flat on 18 days. Enterprise prices slightly declined on 19 and 20 days. At present, the market turnover is around 7850-8150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7850 yuan/ton. The inventory enthusiasm of the refinery has been improved, and there are more profit concessions.

Industry chain: upstream, due to the impact of last weekend Saudi Arabia incident, international crude oil production fell sharply in the early stage, market prices continued to rise, Saudi crude oil recovered well, international crude oil prices dived again, resulting in the linkage of propylene market up and down. On the downstream side, downstream manufacturers are cautious in purchasing, mainly at low prices. This week’s polypropylene futures prices fluctuated with crude oil. Spot prices rose steadily with a 7-day increase of 1.92%. However, domestic polypropylene factories in many areas are expected to implement the production restriction order. There are many expectations of polypropylene plant shutdown. Later, it is likely to continue the trend of shock adjustment, which has no significant positive or negative impact on propylene. The oleic acid price has been stable and has no effect on the propylene market for the time being; the propylene oxide price has been rising slowly, with a 7-day increase of 2.56%, but the propylene market is limited by the possibility of a slight drop in the high level in the later period; while the propylene oxide market has risen sharply, with a weekly increase of 10.26%, and a 7-day increase of 13.16%, which is obviously favorable. Propylene market; while the market for n-butanol was slightly volatile, with a weekly increase of 0.49%, mainly high-level consolidation, stable market shipments, little impact on propylene; the market for isooctanol rose this week, with a weekly increase of 2.45%, slightly favorable to the propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that overall, the decline of international crude oil after soaring has limited benefits for the propylene market; downstream procurement is cautious, although the market is mainly slightly rising, but the propylene market is expected to continue to decline in recent days.