Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20746.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.
September aluminum price forecast
Aluminum prices in September are expected to remain volatile overall. Mainly based on the medium to long term perspective, in a situation where supply is relatively stable or growing, demand growth is slow, and macroeconomic uncertainty is high, aluminum prices lack the motivation to continue to rise significantly. The specific factors are as follows:
Macroeconomics: Although the US economic data is still performing well, the global economy still faces many uncertainties, such as the uncertain path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which may have a certain impact on aluminum prices.
Fundamentals:
Short term macro positive news: The US GDP data for the second quarter has been raised, business investment has grown significantly, and the consumer market has shown some vitality, providing macro level support for aluminum prices. Moreover, with a preference for macro sentiment, investors’ optimism outweighs concerns about the uncertainty of the interest rate cut path, and the influx of funds into the market may drive up aluminum prices.
Supply side: Some alumina enterprises, such as a certain alumina plant in Guizhou, have undergone maintenance, resulting in a short-term decrease in supply and providing some support for aluminum prices.
Cost support: Although there are fluctuations in the cost of alumina and other materials, they can provide some overall support for aluminum prices, limiting their downward potential.
Restrictive factors:
Demand side: The downstream operating rate of domestic aluminum has slightly rebounded, but consumption growth is limited. The demand growth in fields such as construction, automobiles, and photovoltaic profiles is not strong, especially in the photovoltaic industry where demand is weak, which poses a certain constraint on the rise of aluminum prices.
Inventory factors: The social inventory of aluminum and LME aluminum ingot inventory are showing an increasing trend, leading to increased inventory pressure and to some extent restraining the rapid rise in aluminum prices.
Conclusion: Short term aluminum prices are dominated by macroeconomic favorable factors and are expected to receive more support, showing a strong and volatile trend. However, due to constraints from demand and inventory factors, the upward trend is limited.
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