I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since last Friday (10.11), the domestic methanol market has been surging and falling back. As of October 15, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2352 yuan / ton. The price is 12.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 28.92% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the methanol inventory in Northwest China is not high, and the price is firm; the methanol market in Bohai Rim region is generally traded, and the market is mainly on the sidelines; the methanol delivery in Huaihai region is not good, and the methanol market price in some regions has a significant decline; the methanol market in Central China is slightly traded, and the mentality of traders is weak; the downward trend of futures has significantly depressed the spot price of the port. The demand for downstream olefins is stable. Although the inventory of methanol manufacturers in Northwest China is not high and the price remains firm and consolidated, at the current high price level, the downstream users in consumption areas such as Shandong mainly consume raw material inventory, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. Under the pressure of weak overall transaction, the prices of some manufacturers around Bohai Sea and Huaihai sea are reversed. On the port side, the futures went down, the port spot fluctuated with the market, and the operator’s mentality was negative, and the transaction was not good.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is on the lookout for consolidation. The weak market of raw methanol is dominated by consolidation, and the cost support continues to weaken. There is no obvious negative effect on the formaldehyde Market for the time being. The offer of formaldehyde industry is temporarily stable. At present, the transaction atmosphere in most regions is mainly light, and it is difficult to boost the delivery. In the short term, the domestic formaldehyde market may be stable, medium and small weak.

Influence of formaldehyde on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde in the business association, the price change trend of methanol and formaldehyde is basically the same from September 15 to October 6, and the price change range of formaldehyde is the same as that of methanol in the whole community. As an important downstream of methanol, the price of formaldehyde has shown a downward trend since Oct. 7. The downward trend of methanol is slightly behind that of formaldehyde, but the overall trend remains the same. It is expected that the price of methanol will also decline.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market continues to be weak. Under the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, downstream users mostly just need to receive goods, and spot market transactions are weak. In this context, some enterprises mainly engaged in spot sales still have the expectation of increasing inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to be sharp, the low-level competition of suppliers is fierce, and the atmosphere of short market is strong. Tianjin Bohua Yongli reduced the negative, while Jiangsu Thorpe stopped unexpectedly for a short time, which had no significant impact on the market. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Influence of acetic acid on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and acetic acid in the business association, the price change trend and range of the two are basically the same. The acetic acid market is light, and the methanol market will also be affected by the negative under the condition of low downstream demand.

Dimethyl ether: the market price of dimethyl ether is generally stable, the high price manufacturers call back, the market demand is not large, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. The average price of DME in North China is 3580 yuan / ton, which is 17 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous working day. The overall price of the regions along the Yangtze River and southwest China has increased by about 30 yuan / ton, while that of Hebei has declined, while that of other regions is mainly stable.

Influence of dimethyl ether on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether, the price change trend and range of them are basically the same. The domestic market price of DME is stable as a whole, and the price of some high-priced manufacturers in Hebei Province has dropped. The industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude, but there are many manufacturers who have been operating steadily and secretly, and some of them have made profits. In the near future, some of the parking manufacturers have not yet started, and their production capacity will gradually increase. In addition, the methanol cost support is insufficient, the methanol market will decline, and the market demand for dimethyl ether is not high. It is expected that the domestic market price of DME may fall in the short term.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: in the later stage, the downstream delivery is poor, and the demand side support is weak, but at the same time, the low inventory support price in the upstream main production area is strong, with some support. The methanol analysts of the business community expect that the domestic methanol market will be stagnant in the short term, and some areas will have a downward pressure. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to downstream mentality, safety supervision, operation of olefin unit, port inventory, freight level and futures trend.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market fell sharply this week by 4.83%. At present, the quotation in Henan is around 3050-3100/ton; Shandong is about 3200-3350 yuan/ton; Hebei is about 3350-3450 yuan/ton; Shaanxi is about 2950 yuan/ton; Jiangsu is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton; Zhejiang is about 3350-3450 yuan/ton. Around 3,400-3,500 yuan per ton in South China.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: Domestic acetic acid continued to weaken this week, the industry started at a high level, the overall starting rate maintained at about 90%, affected by the poor delivery of National Day, enterprises in order to alleviate warehouse pressure and yield more profits to ship, but the downstream market started flat, cautious buying, more wait-and-see attitude, in this state, further stimulate acetic acid enterprises to reduce the quotation to ease the pressure of competition in the industry.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol enterprises have low inventories, downstream market replenishment is active, enterprise shipments are not pressurized, rising by 3.29% in a week, currently about 2,386 yuan/ton; domestic acetate and vinyl acetate industries are more stable in a week, acetic acid prices fall, resulting in inadequate cost support and poor downstream demand, PTA market is expected to remain soft in the short run; The downstream demand is limited, and the recent centralized overhaul of enterprises has led to a reduction in spot supply, which to some extent alleviates the downstream space.

International: This week, the supply of acetic acid in North America will be reduced due to Celanese parking, and it will run at a high level within a week. At present, it is about 610 US dollars/ton; the overall market of acetic acid in Asia is flat and the price is stable, currently 435-465 US dollars/ton; and the supply of acetic acid in Europe will be somewhat tight, with a slight increase in the week, and the current quotation is about 660 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Acetic acid analysts of business associations believe that the acetic acid market continues to weaken. Although Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Thorpe have reduced their negative operation, the overall spot supply of the market is abundant and the downstream market is just in poor demand. Competitive pressures of enterprises around the world have increased and they have yielded profits to ship. Although the raw material methanol market remains high, it has no significant positive support for acetic acid prices; the downstream market and export performance are low. There is no sign of warming up in the short term. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will remain weak in a short time.

Price Trend

II. Market Analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate 50% powder mainstream factory price 2800-3100 yuan/ton, 52% powder factory price 2900-3200 yuan/ton, South China price is higher, preferential range is 50-100 yuan. Qinghai water-salt system powdery potassium sulfate mainstream arrival quotation is about 2550-2600 yuan/ton, the transaction is limited, the actual transaction can be discussed.

Luo Potassium plant resumed production. At present, the pre-market stock is still waiting to be shipped. 51% of the powder arrival price is 3100 yuan/ton, 52% of the powder arrival price is 3150 yuan/ton, 51% of the actual regional transaction price is about 2750 yuan/ton, 52% of the powder is about 2800 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: After National Day, the market of potassium fertilizer is not good, and the price of potassium sulphate is stable. Generally speaking, the potassium sulfate market lacks favorable support, unless the industry start-up rate can be significantly reduced, the market is unlikely to improve in the short term.

I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

The average price of industrial lithium hydroxide as of October 11 was 70666.67 yuan per ton, which was the same as that of October 10. The market was stable for the time being, down by 0.93% compared with September 11, according to the data from the business associations’list.  The mainstream price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market was 68000-74000 yuan/ton on November 11.

II. Market analysis:

Product: The market of lithium hydroxide was stable on the 11th. At present, the quotation for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai is 68,000 yuan/ton, for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Oujin is 70,000 yuan/ton, for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Chen lithium material and for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai is 69,000 yuan/ton, and for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Zigong Tongfarong is 74,000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price decline of lithium carbonate in the upstream has slowed down gradually, and weak consolidation is dominant. In the downstream traditional lubrication industry, the market demand is relatively stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Lithium hydroxide analysts at business associations believe that the recent slowdown in upstream lithium carbonate has some support for lithium hydroxide. Lithium hydroxide supply is abundant, downstream demand is relatively stable, manufacturers actively shipped, the pressure of new orders can not be ignored. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

On October 9, the rare earth index was 374 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 62.60% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 38.01% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 4.055 million yuan/ton, 2.325 million yuan/ton and 6.95 million yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 317,500 yuan per ton; the price of dysprosium oxide has dropped 20,000 yuan per ton to 1.815 million yuan per ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 382,500 yuan per ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan per ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 4.055 million yuan per ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys is down 20,000 yuan per ton to 1.815 million yuan per ton.

Recently, some prices in rare earth market have declined. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The prices of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides have declined. Heavy rare earth prices have continued to fall for two consecutive days. In recent years, the inquiries for Pr, Nd and Nd oxides have declined, the price of light rare earth oxides has slightly declined, and the recent market light rare earth merchants are poor, the recent market turnover is general.  The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic materials enterprises are weak in buying after the holiday because of the surplus of pre-holiday purchasing, and the decrease of rare earth price compared with the earlier period. They have strong wait-and-see sentiment. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separating enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are supplied normally, and the price trend of rare earth market is small. Recently, there has been a strong wait-and-see sentiment among large enterprise groups on the market. The rare earth market is in a general market and the turnover is at a low level.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the State Council inspection team went to Jiangxi rare earth enterprises to inspect. This inspection closely centered on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, and focused on the strong blockades and pain points reflected by the people and the market subjects, so as to promote the implementation of various tasks from point to point. In addition, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments should take effective measures to improve the management mechanism, strengthen the industrial restructuring and standardization, speed up the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, effectively play the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and shrink the supply of raw mineral resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry. Domestic stakeholders are waiting for good news from the policy and the reserve.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental protection inspection will not decrease in the near future. In addition, the domestic order of the rare earth industry will be rectified, and the supply of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi will be kept at a low level. However, the demand of the lower reaches of rare earth has not improved in the near future. It is expected that some prices of the rare earth market will remain at a low level.