In May, the prices of polyethylene in various sales links continued to fall, prices continued to fall, linear and low-pressure injection moulding appeared “7″ low price. Low prices stimulated some middlemen and downstream replenishment, the market rebounded rapidly on the 17th, turnover improved, and petrochemical stocks quickly digested. However, after replenishing the warehouse, the 22nd returned to silence, and high-end prices began to fall. Polyethylene may start a new round of decline on the 24th due to crude oil plunge and the downward trend of linear futures.

First of all, domestic maintenance devices will start one after another. Lanzhou Petrochemical PE plant is scheduled to restart on June 20; Yuneng Chemical Full Density Plant is scheduled to stop on May 8 and start at the end of May; Jilin Petrochemical Linear Plant is scheduled to stop on May 14 and restart on May 28; Maoming Petrochemical Full Density Plant is scheduled to stop on May 11 and start-up time is pending; Pucheng Clean Energy Full Density Plant is scheduled to stop on May 17 and restart around June 11. There are few new overhaul devices. There is no new overhaul device except the 450,000 tons low-voltage unit planned for July in Yan’an Energy and Chemical Industry, Shaanxi Province. Following the start-up of Jiutai energy plant, the first 350,000 tons linear plant of Zhongan Coal Chemical Company is scheduled to start in June 2019.

Secondly, demand continues to be off-season, the demand for plastic film ends, enterprises shut down mainly, individual enterprises maintain sporadic production or stage start-up, mainly functional plastic film. The demand for plastic film is light, the order follow-up is insufficient, and most enterprises have stopped or staged production. Some high-end film follow-up, mainly EVA sunlight film and PO film, some large and medium-sized enterprises maintain a small or stage production, the start-up rate generally varies from 1 to 3%. In June, all products were still in the off-season of demand, and the domestic wheat harvest season came one after another.

Thirdly, the macro-level is negative. Internationally, the conflict of trade wars persists. The market is worried about the negative impact of trade wars on economic growth and the growth rate of global demand. From the perspective of crude oil supply and demand pattern, Iran, Venezuela and OPEC cut-off agreements affect the supply of crude oil, while OECD lowered the growth expectation of crude oil demand, there are uncertainties in the supply and demand side of crude oil, and crude oil maintains a short-term oscillation pattern.

Domestic side: Facing the escalation of trade war, the domestic government has raised counter-cyclical adjustment to cushion the downward pressure of the economy; domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy actively release positive news, increase support for infrastructure and consumer side, which is conducive to smoothing the change of demand side.

Overall, although the market is concerned about the global economic downturn and obvious changes in demand side, a series of domestic policies have been issued to hedge the impact of peripheral markets. Overall, there are certain uncertainties in macro-level, and the emotional impact on commodities is slightly neutral.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the price of domestic cis-butadiene rubber rose slightly this week (5.20-5.24). At the beginning of the week, the price was 11312 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the price was 11362 yuan/ton, up 0.44%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (5.20-5.24) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price increased by 300 yuan/ton, as of May 24, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price increased by 11500 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: China imported 557,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2019, a decrease of 4.13%. From January to April 2019, China imported 212.8 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices rose slightly this week, the cost side supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the business association, butadiene was 8081 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8370 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 3.58 percent on the whole.

Demand: According to the statistics bureau, the output of domestic rubber tyres in April 2019 was 73.758 million, down 0.8% from the same period last year; the output of domestic rubber tyres in January-April was 26.633 million, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has risen slightly, which supports the price of synthetic rubber, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber is weak, and the overall negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber is formed. In the later period, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will maintain a narrow fluctuation.

First, the price trend

The price of Trichloromethane in China continued to rise this week, with 2780 yuan/ton at the start of the week in Shandong, and an average price of 2930 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 5.4%, according to business’s bulk data monitoring.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Product Reason: This week, the domestic trichloromethane market is affected by the strong demand for downstream refrigerant, the price continues to rise, the current Shandong region Chloromethane quote 2930-2960 yuan/ton or so, Jiangsu region quoted 4000 yuan/ton or so: Jiangxi quote 3700 yuan/ton or so.

In terms of construction, jinling chemical plant to resume production, the current construction of about 80%, dongying jinmao full load operation, Luxi chemical plant started 60%, Jiangsu Liwen Plant started normal, Jiangxi Liwen plant normal operation and so on. Industrial chain: Upstream, this week the domestic methanol market performance is strong, local prices continue to move up. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market in 2288 yuan/ton, the weekend reported 2342 yuan/ton, the increase of 2.36% in the week, the price is 23.18% lower than the same period last year, the liquid chlorine market supply and demand two weak, the overall performance is stable, enterprises more than 300-600 yuan/ton.

Downstream, R22 refrigerant market in the high season, the overall performance is better, the market trading active, is the Enterprise Scatterwater Factory reported 18500-18800 yuan/ton. Industry: According to business price monitoring, in the 20th Week of 2019 (5.20-5.24) commodity prices rose and fell in the chemical sector a total of 17 kinds of goods, including more than 5% of the total number of goods 1, accounting for the sector of 1.4% of monitored goods; the top 3 of the goods were Trichloromethane (5.4%) , Butadiene (3.57%), fluorite (3.28%).

A total of 28 items fell in the ring, a total of 6 products fell above 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the number of goods monitored in the sector, and the first 3 of the decreases were TDI (-15.15%), sulfuric acid (-8.79%) and polymerized MDI (-7.2%).

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society Methane chloride Data analyst believes that the current Trichloromethane market supply gap has gradually eased, the industry supply and demand two strong, trading atmosphere is good, it is expected that in the future a short period of time methane chloride market high strength.

May 22 The PX Commodity Index was 60.00, the same as yesterday, down 41.41% from 102.4 at the highest point in the cycle (2013-02-28), up 31.72% from its lowest 45.55 point on February 15, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to date). According to statistics, 23rd domestic market price trend of xylene, the field installation of Pengzhou petrochemical Plant stable operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Fuhai invasive aromatic device driving a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refining Plant Maintenance, Hengli petrochemical PX device put into production, other devices temporarily stable operation, As a result of the new installation of domestic paraxylene market supply normal, the market price trend of xylene is temporarily stable. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is around 80%, May 22 in the Asian region, the market price of xylene is 3 U.S. dollars/ton, the closing price is 838-840 U.S. dollars/ton FOB Korea and 857-859 U.S. dollar/ton CFR China, more than 50% of domestic needs to import,

The low price of foreign plate has a certain negative effect on the domestic market price of xylene, and the price trend of xylene in the field is stable. May 22 U.S. WTI crude oil July futures market prices fell, reported 61.42 U.S. dollars/barrels, a decline of 1.71 U.S. dollars, Brent crude oil July futures prices fell, reported 70.99 U.S. dollars/Barrels, The decline of 1.19 U.S. dollars, crude oil price trend decline, for the downstream petrochemical product prices lost a certain cost support role, the xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market stability, PTA price 23rd trend small decline, east China’s average price in 6000-6100 yuan/ton near self-mention, as of 22nd domestic PTA start rate in about 83.7%, polyester industry start rate of about 87.5%, downstream production and sales rate to maintain a high, But the PTA market price is slightly lower, and the late PX market price is expected to be slightly lower.

According to business price data monitoring, as of May 22, 1.2D viscose staple Fiber Domestic factory price of 12388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21%, the decline of 412 yuan/ton, compared with the same period last year, decreased by 18.49%, a decrease of 2812 yuan/ton, the decline was large to surprising.

Mid-end Factory quotation 11900-12300 yuan/ton, high-end factory quotation 12400-12800 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price discount of 200-300 yuan/ton. Upstream cotton short velvet domestic market price to maintain stability, local small rise.

Cotton oil plant Start-up rate is low, resulting in cotton short velvet production is very low, support cotton short velvet market, has long been affected by environmental protection inspection, downstream start rate has been low, and imported short velvet price is low, manufacturers purchase high-priced short velvet discreet, market transactions Limited, suppress domestic short velvet prices, expected short-term or volatile finishing. Due to the recent serious loss of viscose staple fiber price, some factories have been discontinued in a small area. Among them, Nanjing chemical Fiber recently announced that since the second half of 2018, Viscose staple fiber market continued to be depressed, the company Viscose staple fiber product sales difficulties, inventory continued to rise, the company decided to temporarily cut off from now on the inspection of the inventory. The company will determine the recovery time according to the adhesive staple fiber market situation, the estimated shutdown time does not exceed three months.

Since October last year, Nanjing Chemical Fiber has been shut down the annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of viscose filament production line, the end of last year completed the transfer of the ownership of the Orchid (Nanjing) stake in all the relevant procedures, no longer hold the LAN Jing (Nanjing) equity. Downstream 30S Cotton yarn as of May 22, Shandong region factory average price of 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.46%, decreased by 850 yuan/ton, compared with the same period last year decreased by 9.19%, the decline of up to 1842 Yuan/ton. Most of the factory quotes are more concentrated, the mid-end factory quoted 17500-18000 yuan/ton, high-end factory quotes 18100-18800 yuan/ton. By the further deterioration of Sino-US trade relations, market pessimism permeated, the domestic yarn market almost all fell, some yarn type prices fell sharply.

First at home and abroad cotton prices plummeted, yarn costs with the same drop; second, cotton yarn futures prices plunged sharply; third, Chinese and foreign yarn inventory hit an all-time high, leading to the recent yarn market bearish overlay. To sum up, upstream cotton short velvet prices have been crushed, viscose from the second half of 18 began to produce enterprise product inventory continued to rise, production capacity concentrated, resulting in the viscose staple fiber market oversupply, late start rate decline, downstream yarn is also internal, spot futures all the decline, coupled with the current Sino-US trade relations, bearish textile industry, Forcing many people in the industry to withdraw from the adhesive market. The late adhesive is expected to continue to decline, the actual transaction price in the vicinity of 12000 yuan/ton.