In May, the prices of polyethylene in various sales links continued to fall, prices continued to fall, linear and low-pressure injection moulding appeared “7″ low price. Low prices stimulated some middlemen and downstream replenishment, the market rebounded rapidly on the 17th, turnover improved, and petrochemical stocks quickly digested. However, after replenishing the warehouse, the 22nd returned to silence, and high-end prices began to fall. Polyethylene may start a new round of decline on the 24th due to crude oil plunge and the downward trend of linear futures.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
First of all, domestic maintenance devices will start one after another. Lanzhou Petrochemical PE plant is scheduled to restart on June 20; Yuneng Chemical Full Density Plant is scheduled to stop on May 8 and start at the end of May; Jilin Petrochemical Linear Plant is scheduled to stop on May 14 and restart on May 28; Maoming Petrochemical Full Density Plant is scheduled to stop on May 11 and start-up time is pending; Pucheng Clean Energy Full Density Plant is scheduled to stop on May 17 and restart around June 11. There are few new overhaul devices. There is no new overhaul device except the 450,000 tons low-voltage unit planned for July in Yan’an Energy and Chemical Industry, Shaanxi Province. Following the start-up of Jiutai energy plant, the first 350,000 tons linear plant of Zhongan Coal Chemical Company is scheduled to start in June 2019.
Secondly, demand continues to be off-season, the demand for plastic film ends, enterprises shut down mainly, individual enterprises maintain sporadic production or stage start-up, mainly functional plastic film. The demand for plastic film is light, the order follow-up is insufficient, and most enterprises have stopped or staged production. Some high-end film follow-up, mainly EVA sunlight film and PO film, some large and medium-sized enterprises maintain a small or stage production, the start-up rate generally varies from 1 to 3%. In June, all products were still in the off-season of demand, and the domestic wheat harvest season came one after another.
| PVA |
Thirdly, the macro-level is negative. Internationally, the conflict of trade wars persists. The market is worried about the negative impact of trade wars on economic growth and the growth rate of global demand. From the perspective of crude oil supply and demand pattern, Iran, Venezuela and OPEC cut-off agreements affect the supply of crude oil, while OECD lowered the growth expectation of crude oil demand, there are uncertainties in the supply and demand side of crude oil, and crude oil maintains a short-term oscillation pattern.
Domestic side: Facing the escalation of trade war, the domestic government has raised counter-cyclical adjustment to cushion the downward pressure of the economy; domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy actively release positive news, increase support for infrastructure and consumer side, which is conducive to smoothing the change of demand side.
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
Overall, although the market is concerned about the global economic downturn and obvious changes in demand side, a series of domestic policies have been issued to hedge the impact of peripheral markets. Overall, there are certain uncertainties in macro-level, and the emotional impact on commodities is slightly neutral.