Market situation: after the May Day holiday, the port unloading difficulties of phenol Market and the good news of the equipment maintenance and other supply areas were released. The phenol market rose rapidly. At one time, the price in East China rose to 7000 yuan / ton, up 10% in the week after the holiday (as of May 10). However, the demand did not pick up. The market was obviously in conflict with the high price, and the intermediate traders had no intention to participate in it. The market rose sharply The market in East China fell to 6450 yuan / ton and fell rapidly after the sharp rise. For a while, the shipping volume in North China was controlled and the port stock was insufficient after the ship arrived at the port One point five Ten thousand tons, although the import source was supplemented in mid May, the overall phenol supply was still under no pressure. Phenol market rose again at the opening of this week. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listed price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market offer in East China is 6650-6700 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6850 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and surrounding Yanshan is 6900-6950 yuan / ton. This week, the market opened up 150-350 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comment: the main raw materials pure benzene and propylene market continued to rise, with strong cost support. First of all, look at the pure benzene market. Sinopec’s price of pure benzene has risen to 3250 yuan / ton. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil this week has stimulated a good atmosphere for domestic pure benzene negotiation. Some pure benzene enterprises in Shandong have raised their offer again. Up to now, the price of pure benzene is 3200-3650 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream factories is as follows: Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 3200 yuan / ton, Yangzi Petrochemical Company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, Hainan refining chemical company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, Wuhan ethylene company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, petrochemical company quoted 3500 yuan / ton, Beijing Bo petrochemical company quoted 3650 yuan / ton, Dongming Petrochemical Company quoted 3500 yuan / ton, Huifeng petrochemical company quoted 3250 yuan / ton, Jincheng petrochemical company quoted 3500 yuan / ton.

Another important raw material propylene market, the propylene market has maintained a unilateral upward trend since May 1st, and continued to rise steadily. Up to now, the main transactions in the propylene market are more than 6800 yuan / ton, and this month’s cumulative upward trend 15.88% The downstream market of propylene is broad and the plant operation rate is high. The demand for propylene is stable and the purchase is up. The propylene shipment is smooth. The current propylene inventory is still low and short-term Propylene will still maintain a steady upward trend.

The downstream market is firm. One of the important downstream markets, bisphenol a market, is affected by the upstream of the downstream PC, and the major markets are up slightly. The “helmet” policy stimulates the upstream of the PC market. However, the impact on the market of bisphenol A is not obvious, but most traders hold a low price attitude. In terms of bisphenol a plant, Sinopec Mitsubishi plant will restart after shutdown, and other major mainstream plants will not report temporarily The panel is mainly used for downstream devices or for household. At present, the quotation of bisphenol a market in East China is 9700 yuan / ton, the quotation of bisphenol a market in North China is 9800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of bisphenol a market in Huangshan is 9800 yuan / ton. The downstream resin factory is under normal operation, and the quotation of resin is slightly improved.

Future market forecast: in this week’s opening phenol Market, under the favorable situation of tight supply, the holders actively push up the market and gradually increase the offer. The supply pressure of the holders is not great and the mentality is positive. At present, the intermediate traders are cautious in hoarding goods. The terminal factories just need to buy into the main market and the actual transaction is average. The business community expects the phenol Market to steadily push up or consolidate in the short term. The market should pay more attention to the reality It is estimated that the reference offer of East China market is 6750-6800 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

On May 18, spot copper was 43296.67 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day and 11.7% from the beginning of the year, down 9.64% year on year. LME copper 3-month contracts rose 1.20% to $5247.5. Shanghai copper’s main contract soared to 43270 yuan, or 0.32%, in the morning.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the improvement of domestic industrial data, the market’s optimistic sentiment picked up slightly, copper futures rose slightly, but spot copper prices slightly recovered. Basically, the supply of copper goods is limited, and the downstream keeps rigid demand. Most transactions are mainly received by traders, with general activity. Peru gradually recovers its economy. Large mines take the lead in resuming construction. The speed of port collection and shipment is accelerated. The tight supply pattern of overseas mine ends is eased. Copper mine delivery is gradually recovered. However, port transportation and shipment still need to queue up. The short-term supply of copper concentrate remains tight. Domestic end consumption is improving. However, the global economy is declining, the epidemic situation is likely to be repeated, and there is pressure above copper price 。 However, the price of refined copper and waste gradually returned to normal, and the substitution effect of refined copper weakened.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of the business society think that: supply is tight to support copper price, domestic demand has improved, but affected by the global economy, the sharp rise of copper price is restricted, and copper price is expected to maintain the trend of strong shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate: About 2650% powder; about 2750% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2250-2380. The price of potassium sulphate in Southwest China has slowed down, but it is still at the top of the domestic market. The ex factory price of 52% water-soluble powder is about 2900 yuan / ton, while the external price is still over 3000 yuan / ton. The price of potassium sulphate in Northwest China is also slowing down, and the ex factory price of 50% powder is about 2450 yuan / ton. SDIC’s potash plant has entered the maintenance period in summer, and the current inventory can maintain normal supply and shipment. Some manufacturers of potassium sulfate in Qinghai water salt system said that they would adjust it after the new price of potash was determined. Some manufacturers have reduced the arrival price of 50% powder to 2250 yuan / ton, and temporarily expanded the scope of customers.

3、 Future forecast

The seasonal demand for potash fertilizer is low, there is still surplus in stock, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. With the overall low price of potassium chloride Market in the later period tending to be stable, potassium sulfate may be affected to some extent, the price will also be lowered, and the pressure of water salt potassium sulfate will gradually increase in the later period. Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: potassium sulphate is in a stable position in the short term, and the later stage mainly depends on the trend of potassium chloride.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market trend of PA6 in the first ten days of May was positive, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of May 14, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 11366.67 yuan / ton, up 9.65% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam upstream of PA6, caprolactam market rose due to tight spot supply. The average ex factory price of caprolactam liquid in China on May 14 was 9833 yuan / ton, up 8.46% a week, according to the data in the bulk list of business associations. Boosted by the rise of crude oil and foreign market, the focus of domestic pure benzene market is stronger. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene and the price of pure benzene rose steadily. At present, the supply of caprolactam in China is tight, there are few spot products, and the enterprises are actively pricing up. In addition, the price of caprolactam continues to rise due to the rising price of raw materials. As part of the enterprise equipment is about to restart, the supply side will ease, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: PA6 market in China rose strongly in early May, and the spot prices of various brands rose. The supply of upstream caprolactam is reduced, and PA6 cost end is strongly supported. Downstream demand is still weak, PA6 consumption speed improvement is limited, and actual transaction is not good. PA6 market is expected to adjust in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on May 13 was 5200 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from last Wednesday (6 days), and 11.83% from the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On May 12, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 111.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 22.30% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: in May, domestic demand basically recovered, phosphoric acid shipments were in good condition, downstream inquiries increased, and the support of raw material end yellow phosphorus was acceptable, so the trend of phosphoric acid market became stronger. At present, in the peak season of chemical fertilizer, most phosphoric acid manufacturers in some areas produce and use their own products. They are reluctant to sell. As a result, local sources of goods in the field are tight, and the offer is up. On May 22, the two sessions in Beijing, some regions may have plans to suspend production, which will boost the market atmosphere. On the whole, the phosphoric acid market is stable and moving slightly, and the willingness of the buyer to push up is enhanced, and the trend of phosphoric acid is stronger. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of May 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi is about 5150 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing is about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of Hubei is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: Recently, the phosphate ore market is still stable, and the overall market is weak. The trading atmosphere is general, so it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will still be in the main consolidation and operation in the short term. Since May, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been temporarily stable, and the quotation range of the market is relatively small, among which the enterprises with short supply of goods have a slight trend of strong price, but the overall turnover of the market is not many new orders, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and the traders mainly wait and see. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 12, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are caprolactam (9.19%), acetone (3.85%) and ethylene oxide (3.17%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were propane (- 2.95%), hydrofluoric acid (- 2.53%) and chlorinated paraffin (- 2.05%). The average price of this day is 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the business, social and chemical branch, the cost end support of the phosphoric acid market is acceptable at present, the delivery pressure of manufacturers is reduced, the supply of goods in some regions is tight, the willingness of merchants to push up is enhanced, and other regions are still on the lookout. It is expected that the trend of the phosphoric acid market will be stable and small in the short term, with consolidation as the main trend.