1、 Price trend
The average price of phosphoric acid in China on May 13 was 5200 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from last Wednesday (6 days), and 11.83% from the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On May 12, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 111.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 22.30% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
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Products: in May, domestic demand basically recovered, phosphoric acid shipments were in good condition, downstream inquiries increased, and the support of raw material end yellow phosphorus was acceptable, so the trend of phosphoric acid market became stronger. At present, in the peak season of chemical fertilizer, most phosphoric acid manufacturers in some areas produce and use their own products. They are reluctant to sell. As a result, local sources of goods in the field are tight, and the offer is up. On May 22, the two sessions in Beijing, some regions may have plans to suspend production, which will boost the market atmosphere. On the whole, the phosphoric acid market is stable and moving slightly, and the willingness of the buyer to push up is enhanced, and the trend of phosphoric acid is stronger. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of May 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi is about 5150 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing is about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of Hubei is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5400 yuan / ton.
Industrial chain: Recently, the phosphate ore market is still stable, and the overall market is weak. The trading atmosphere is general, so it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will still be in the main consolidation and operation in the short term. Since May, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been temporarily stable, and the quotation range of the market is relatively small, among which the enterprises with short supply of goods have a slight trend of strong price, but the overall turnover of the market is not many new orders, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and the traders mainly wait and see. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 12, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are caprolactam (9.19%), acetone (3.85%) and ethylene oxide (3.17%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were propane (- 2.95%), hydrofluoric acid (- 2.53%) and chlorinated paraffin (- 2.05%). The average price of this day is 0.27%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the business, social and chemical branch, the cost end support of the phosphoric acid market is acceptable at present, the delivery pressure of manufacturers is reduced, the supply of goods in some regions is tight, the willingness of merchants to push up is enhanced, and other regions are still on the lookout. It is expected that the trend of the phosphoric acid market will be stable and small in the short term, with consolidation as the main trend.
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