The domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market price was 1627 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and then rose, which remained stable on the whole. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 1.40%, and the price decreased by 24.93% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic methanol market showed regional differences. In Northwest China, some units were shut down for maintenance, and some upstream factories were reluctant to sell. In addition, the price of methanol futures rose, and the manufacturers actively pushed up, but the overall transaction atmosphere was general. In terms of inventory, the port and inland warehouses accumulated again this week, and the import volume remained at the level of million tons in the later stage, so it was hopeless to go to the warehouse in the short term Inventory continues to suppress methanol price; demand side mainly maintains stability, and it is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The overall high inventory impact maintenance is good, and the domestic methanol market is in a volatile situation.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market was narrowed down. During the week, raw material methanol continued to decline in a narrow range, which further tightened the cost of formaldehyde, and the theoretical profit of the enterprise was meager. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the start-up of downstream plate plants was significantly weakened, and formaldehyde enterprises mostly followed the load reduction operation; after the festival, due to the influence of high temperature and rain, the operating load of downstream plate plants continued to be low, so the demand for formaldehyde was significantly reduced, and formaldehyde enterprises ushered in the traditional off-season.

Acetic acid: domestic acetic acid market rose sharply this week. With the return of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday to the market, manufacturers began a new round of contract delivery, with relatively low inventory and stable downstream demand, which gave strong support to the market, while the optimistic market situation of acetic acid gave support to suppliers.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market was stable as a whole, and the price did not change significantly. The production and sales of dimethyl ether enterprises in Henan’s main production areas are basically balanced this week. Most enterprises have no greater inventory pressure, but the overall digestion of terminal liquefied gas is general. Even if there is a narrow increase in the price, it still does not strongly stimulate the enthusiasm of the terminal to take goods. Most short-term small order replenishment is mainly used. Gas ether price difference is still small, terminal demand for dimethyl ether is general.

On the whole, methanol is constrained by high inventory, and supported by cost and crude oil. Methanol analysts of business agency expect that the domestic methanol market will maintain a narrow adjustment in the short term.

In June 2020, the market price of ethanol will be higher and higher. According to the monitoring of business agency, the market price of ethanol is 5775 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 5975 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 3.46% within the month and an increase of 11.39% compared with the same period last year.

The domestic ethanol market fluctuated upward this month, and the production enterprises remained firm under the influence of the high level of corn upstream. The price of raw corn auction continued to rise to a high level with a large premium. Under the influence of the change of rules and the increase of central reserve, the price of the fifth corn auction fell, with a small drop. The overall price remained high, and the production cost of enterprises increased. Large factories continued to implement export orders and domestic downstream purchase orders this month, and the inventory of large factories remained basically low At the same time, small factories are reluctant to sell raw materials at a high price, so they are limited in delivery.

In terms of logistics, the logistics price is stable this month, with the price of 200 yuan / ton from Jilin to Dezhou, Shandong, 320-350 yuan / ton from Heilongjiang to northern Jiangsu, 230-240 yuan / ton from Henan to Hubei, and 250 yuan / ton from Henan to Anhui. There is little change in shipping price.

In terms of raw materials, corn: the price part of the five temporary storage auctions has been implemented, with high price, high premium and high transaction rate. Ethanol enterprises actively purchase raw materials and deliver them to high prices. The cost of ethanol enterprises is high. The price of Northeast China is maintained high under the support of cost, inventory and orders.

Ethyl acetate: in June, the domestic ethyl acetate Market showed a large continuous upward trend, with an overall increase of 350-400 yuan / ton. At present, the raw material ethanol continues to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, while the downstream demand for ethyl acetate is relatively stable. It is mainly rational to purchase high price ethyl acetate. Under the pressure of short-term cost of ethyl acetate, it will remain high, and we will see whether the raw material side can continue to support in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, although the state intervenes, the price of corn will remain high under the influence of supply in a short period of time. The production cost of enterprises will be high. The orders of large factories in July will continue to be implemented. Jilin large factories have maintenance plan, but it is a round inspection. Business agency ethanol analysts predict that the domestic ethanol market is mainly narrow.

According to the data of the business agency, the weekly average quotation of domestic industrial grade formic acid is 1816.67 yuan / ton. The overall formic acid market this week is relatively stable, and the market price is not adjusted much.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a relatively stable trend. The price remained in the early stage. After the market stabilized, the current price fell back from the price at the beginning of the year. However, due to the lack of export power, the storage capacity was in a saturated state. In recent months, most manufacturers gradually adjusted their prices. In terms of equipment: the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, the device operates normally, and the shipment is acceptable. This week, the supply of formic acid market is fair, and all enterprises have inventory. In terms of price: this week, the quoted price of enterprises has been basically maintained at around 1816.67 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of formic acid is about 1350-1700 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is between 1950-2800 yuan / ton. Due to the high freight cost or source production cost in East China, the quotation is high. As of Friday (July 3), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1700 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1450 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1350 yuan / ton; Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. had quoted 1700 yuan / ton of 85% formic acid net water.

The domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products mainly runs smoothly, with partial consolidation. At present, the market of urea and methanol is general, and the price rises slightly, and the overall supply still slightly exceeds the demand. The domestic caustic soda market is running at a high level, and the upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the demand for leather and pesticide industries of downstream products is relatively cold, and there is not much receiving.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data analyst of the business society, the overall price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China is relatively stable. Recently, the inventory of dealers is fair, the downstream demand is relatively cold, and the enterprise’s shipment is not much. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This month, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong Province rose first, then fell and then rose again: the quotation first rose from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1680.00 yuan / ton on June 13, with an increase of 2.23%, and then fell to 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25, which was 3.37% lower than that on June 13. However, near the end of the month, urea price had a slight rise, and the quotation rose again from 1623.33 yuan / ton on June 25 to 1643 on June 30 33 yuan / ton, up 1.23%, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month. On the whole, urea market has ups and downs this month, with an upward trend at the end of the month. The urea commodity index on June 30 was 76.43.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the price of liquid ammonia dropped and then rose. The quotation first fell from 3033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2966.67 yuan / ton on June 11, then rose to 3116.67 yuan / ton on June 21, and finally closed at 3066.67 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of liquid ammonia rose by 33.34 yuan / ton in June, and the price at the end of the month was 6.69% lower than that of the same period last year;

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose first and then fell. The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose first and then fell. The quoted price first rose from 2470.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2503.33 yuan / ton on June 11, and then dropped to 2450.00 yuan / ton on June 30. On the whole, the price of liquefied natural gas in June fell by 20 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 27.66% lower than that in the same period last year. Overall, the urea cost support in this month is strong.

In this month, the quotation of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, which was 5066.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic melamine operating rate was about 55%. The price of melamine was stable, the cost of raw materials increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the production profit decreased.

From the supply side, the actual output of urea in June was 4.6512 million tons (daily average of 155000 tons), up 3.02% year-on-year. However, the operating load rate of domestic gas head urea enterprises was 74.79%, with a month on month decrease of 3.90% and a month on month increase of 1.36%.

From the perspective of demand: in June, there were some agricultural topdressing phenomena in North China and East China, with a slight increase in agricultural demand and a general enthusiasm for stock preparation; while in terms of industrial demand, the market trading atmosphere was not warm and the follow-up of manufacturers’ new orders was fair, and the demand in other regions was general. After the middle of June, the urea market showed obvious signs of weakening, with an average drop of 70-100 yuan / ton on the 24th. On the 20th-24th, some factories increased their orders for the Dragon Boat Festival, and even fell at the rate of 20-30 yuan / ton per day.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of July, the market price of urea may rebound about 30-50 yuan / ton. Urea analysts at the business club believe that after entering July, the continuous rainfall will make the demand of agricultural topdressing in southern China frequent. After the middle of July, the topdressing of corn in Lianghe and other places in Shandong Province began to start, and the compound fertilizer plants began to operate. The industrial demand for low nitrogen and high phosphorus fertilizers began to produce. The demand in July was not pessimistic, and the potential demand remained in the later stage. However, since July, urea enterprises that have been overhauled in the early stage have started operation one after another. It is difficult to be optimistic about the gradually rising operating rate and returning to the daily volume of more than 150000 tons. In addition, the amount of topdressing in summer is far less than that of spring ploughing, and the area of fertilizer used in the downstream is relatively small, and most dealers have prepared fertilizer in the early stage. Therefore, the driving force of urea price upward in July is insufficient. It is expected that the price rebound of urea market will be within 30-50 yuan / ton, and the increase in some regions will not last too long. Urea may not be able to recover from the dead in July.

In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, acetone market experienced a long downturn in the first quarter. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average price of acetone in China was 5500 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was 4050 yuan / ton, with the market down by 26.36%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 to 3750 yuan / ton on March 31, with a drop of 30.56% in the East China market.

Average price trend of acetone in national market from 2019 to 2020

Looking back on the acetone market in 2019, there is no bottom line. At the beginning of April 2019, the market once fell to the “2″ period, setting a new record low. In the second half of 2019, the market improved and rose to more than 6000 yuan, finally out of the dark moment. However, in 2020, the whole bulk industry was affected by the epidemic situation. Acetone, as a chemical product, was no exception. At the end of the first quarter, the lowest point of the East China market was 3750 yuan / ton.

Average price trend of acetone in East China market in the first half of 2020

In the second quarter of 2020, the domestic epidemic situation improved, enterprises returned to work and production, and the market activity gradually increased. Acetone, as a petrochemical product and an important raw material of disinfectant isopropanol, broke through the situation and innovated in the second quarter, reaching the peak in history. However, it is hard to find the unattainable 10000 yuan acetone. In contrast, 2020 is the time to witness the history.

In the first quarter, under the influence of the epidemic, crude oil plummeted, demand was depressed, logistics was limited, and external processing plants were shut down, and the acetone market plummeted. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average price of acetone in China was 5500 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was 4050 yuan / ton, with the market down by 26.36%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 to 3750 yuan / ton on March 31, with a drop of 30.56% in the East China market.

In the second quarter, first of all, WTI and Brent soared by 25% in a single day due to the possibility of a production reduction agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price of 3240 yuan / ton) on the 10th, an increase of 32.4% The market rose from 3700 yuan / ton to 4900 yuan / ton on the 10th day, up 32% in a few days. At this time, the overseas epidemic broke out, and the demand for disinfectant isopropanol increased sharply. Acetone, as its raw material, was increasing day by day. However, the Hong Kong stock reached a low level of 37000 tons. Therefore, under the situation of raw material pure benzene ascending and import shortage, acetone ushered in the first boost.

Secondly, the propylene market rose sharply in the middle of April. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking Shandong market as an example, the daily price increase of propylene enterprises on April 12 was more than 1000 yuan / ton, up 35.02%, and some enterprises even skyrocketed 5000 yuan / ton, with an increase of nearly 100%. From the perspective of the propylene acetone industrial chain, the increase in cost promoted the rise of acetone again, and isopropanol accumulated at this time With export orders scheduled to the end of May, the market demand is favorable and the future is expected. With the stimulation of the sharp rise of raw material propylene and the continuous favorable demand, the acetone factory concentrated on increasing 1000-1100 yuan / ton, which made the largest increase in history, and the market growth was far more than expected. The acetone market in East China rose to 6000 yuan / ton. Acetone ushered in a second boost.

Thirdly, in May, the spread of overseas epidemic situation reduced the source of imported goods, delayed unloading after arrival, and the acetone market was in short supply; the manufacturers controlled the volume of shipment, the industrial chain recovered in a centralized way, and other downstream demand of the terminal was gradually recovered, and the acetone market rose again. In May, the acetone market rose again to over 8000 yuan, a three-year high. After that, the news of factory shutdown for maintenance and quantity control and external delivery spread. At that time, the market heard that xisa chemical, Changshu Changchun and Sinopec No.3 well had overhaul plans in June, but there was still no shipping time to port. The market supply side rose again to the top of the storm, and acetone rose sharply to 9300 yuan / ton on the last trading day of May. In June, the acetone market reached a new high again. Within three days, acetone rose by 10%, easily breaking through 10000 yuan. Looking back on the history of nearly ten years, the market in the fourth quarter of 2013 was close to 10000 yuan, and in 2011, the market broke through 10000 yuan. As of June 10, the offer in East China was 11200 yuan / ton, that in South China was 12200 yuan / ton, and that in North China was 12000 yuan / ton.

At the end of the second quarter, after reaching a new high, acetone gradually fell back. After the acetone market broke through 10000 yuan, except for isopropanol plant, other downstream industries were in a loss state. Under the high cost pressure, bisphenol A and MMA plants kept falling negative, MIBK factory was shut down completely. With the rapid rise of acetone, isopropanol with large demand also had to push up again. High isopropanol was unsalable overseas, and more disinfection substitutes were put on the shelf, and isopropyl alcohol was on the shelf The overseas orders of alcohol were under pressure, and the reduction of factory orders also began to reduce the operating rate and the demand for acetone decreased. Acetone market also had to be rationally lowered. As of the end of the month, the acetone market fell again by 10000 yuan, and the acetone market in East China reached 9400-9600 yuan / ton. Although some factories were shut down for maintenance, the 10000 yuan acetone market in China has gone forever.

Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China

In July, the operating rate of acetone plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, in late July, the operating rate is expected to pick up, and the supply is relatively sufficient. At present, the cost of 9000 yuan / T acetone for downstream is still high, and most industries are still in a loss state. From the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the market for acetone will inevitably continue to decline under the favorable demand and unfavorable supply conditions. It is estimated that the acetone market will reach 8000-9000 yuan / ton in July.