1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices fell slightly in the second half of June. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 16 was 10466 yuan / ton, while that on June 30 was 10400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.64%.

On June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 52.31, down 0.33 points from yesterday, 47.69% from 100.00 points (2017-03-02), and 32.77% higher than the lowest 39.40 points on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to March 1, 2017 to now)

2、 Market analysis

As of June 30, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9600 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the plant normally started up, accepted and delivered. Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10750 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year unit normal start-up, acceptance delivery. Fujian Shenyuan caprolactam liquid listing price 11000 yuan / ton, settlement price 10900 yuan / ton.

In the second half of June, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a downward trend. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 300 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 400 yuan / ton for two consecutive weeks. The port inventory is high, the speed of delivery is slow, and the inventory pressure is difficult to release. Shandong refining enterprises inventory increase, driving prices continue to fall.

In the second half of June, the performance of downstream PA6 was average, and the business offer was deadlocked, and the shipment situation declined. At present, the domestic operating rate is fair. Although the increase of overseas plasticization consumption demand is good for domestic enterprises to remove inventory, the recent follow-up of downstream factory orders is slow, the reaction to high price goods is general, and the main purpose is to prepare goods on bargain.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the current upstream raw materials and downstream prices fell, cost support weakened, downstream demand weak, leading to caprolactam market is not good. It is expected that caprolactam market will fall steadily in the future, and it is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Acrylic acid market fell in June. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, as of June 29, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7700 yuan / ton, which was 10.47% lower than that on June 1 (8600 yuan / ton), and increased by 6.94% on a three-month cycle.

At the beginning of June, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 8600 yuan / ton. The shutdown of some plants increased, the supply of local market was limited, and the overall demand of downstream was good. The price of raw material propylene was firm, and the price of acrylic acid increased steadily. On the 4th, the price rose to 8666.67 yuan / T, and then began to stabilize. During this period, the price of raw propylene declined, but the plant operating rate was low, and propylene On the 15th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was lowered to 8233.33 yuan / ton, the price of raw material propylene rose slightly, some maintenance units recovered slowly, the overall operating rate of downstream was slightly increased, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the price of acrylic acid was stable. On the 18th, the price of raw propylene continued to rise, but the downstream demand was relatively light, so the demand was on demand The average price of acrylic acid in East China fell to 8166.67 yuan / ton on the 19th, and stabilized on the 22nd. The average price of acrylic acid in East China fell to 7733.33 yuan / ton. The downstream participation was not high, and the trading volume was light. On the 23rd and 24th, the stock preparation was basically completed before the festival, and the atmosphere was slightly clear On the 29th, the market price was slightly reduced to 7700 yuan / ton, with sufficient spot supply and downstream purchasing on demand.

Statistics of weekly operating rate change of acrylic acid enterprises:

On June 29, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to rise. According to the price of business agency, Shandong propylene market increased by about 250 yuan / ton in a week at the beginning of June, and there was an obvious correction in the price in the middle of June, with a cumulative decrease of 350 yuan / ton in the seven days of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and rose again. Last Friday, June 19, the price had risen 350-450 yuan / ton. The price remained stable at the weekend, with a total drop of about 250 yuan / ton from the 22nd to 26th. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the price rose again from the 27th. Today, it still rose by 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6750 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers are now under low inventory pressure, some units are out of service, crude oil prices have risen slightly, and the downstream market operating rate is ideal. It is expected that the propylene price will still rise slightly in the near future, which is good support for acrylic acid.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts from the business community believe that the current price of raw material propylene continues to rise to support costs, the market spot supply is sufficient, and downstream procurement is on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price and the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

According to the data of business agency, as of June 28, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 14030 yuan / ton, up 4.00% compared with the average market price of 13490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (June 1), and up 24.93% compared with the average market price of 11230 yuan / ton in the year (March 24).

The price difference between domestic and foreign countries affects the export and import volume

In May 2020, China exported 382900 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%..

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 119145 tons of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum materials in May, slightly lower than the six-year high of 121025 tons hit in March, 12.3% higher than that in April and 164.8% higher than that in the same period last year.

Aluminum ingots are obviously removed from social inventory

On June 15, the social stock of electrolytic aluminum in China has dropped to 767000 tons, and the stock of domestic aluminum ingots as of June 18 was 75.3 tons, a decrease of 34000 tons compared with last week. It is reported that some domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not been fully restored since the reduction of production in late March. Some other enterprises have increased the supply of aluminum water, which has reduced the spot supply of aluminum ingots.

In July, the spot aluminum price may stand at 14000

Support basis:

1. In May, the output of metallurgical grade alumina was 5.581 million tons, and the daily average output of metallurgical grade alumina was 180000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.54%. From January to may, the cumulative output of metallurgical alumina was 27.142 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.19%.

The possibility of sharp decline of domestic alumina in a short period of time is not very likely, and the recent price continues to move well, which is supported by the cost side brought by alumina and favorable for aluminum price.

2. The supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have been effectively improved. Although July August is the off-season of traditional aluminum consumption, it is expected that the demand for construction, home appliances and medical industry will still be good in July. The ultra-high pressure in the new infrastructure construction and the gradual recovery of automobiles will also drive the demand for aluminum, and the demand for aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is large.

Rollover factors:

1. Since the middle and last ten days of April, the aluminum price has recovered greatly, and the profit of aluminum ingot manufacturers has gradually recovered. In Shanxi, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places, new production capacity has been put into production, and supply side variables have increased.

2. Risk of secondary outbreak.

Later focus:

Real estate completion cycle and policy support for wire and cable industry

On June 24, the cryolite commodity index was 68.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.79% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.52% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price trend of domestic cryolite market is temporarily stable. The average price of cryolite market in Henan Province was 5600 yuan / ton on the 24th, down 11.58% year on year. At present, the factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 4800-6000 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 5000-6800 yuan / ton. The factory starts normal operation, has sufficient inventory, and is mainly waiting for operation.

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite is temporarily stable. At present, the average price in the domestic market is 2755.56 yuan / ton. The supply of goods within the site is normal, and the sales situation is general. The enterprise reflects that the inquiry situation has increased in the near future, and the price or arrangement of fluorite in the later stage is upward. In the downstream aluminum industry, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has not fully recovered since the reduction of production in mid March, the spot supply of domestic aluminum ingots has been reduced, and the later aluminum industry continues to operate mainly in shock.

According to the cryolite product analyst of business association, cryolite enterprises are operating normally with sufficient inventory at present, but the downstream demand is relatively flat, and the manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate weakly and stably in the short term, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

On June 23, the market price of propylene oxide rose slightly. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises as of June 23 was 10100 yuan / ton, up 1% compared with yesterday, 13.06% compared with June 1 (8933.33 yuan / ton), and 8.99% compared with May 23.

Supply and demand: at present, the epoxy propane manufacturers have no pressure on delivery temporarily, and the attitude of price fixing is still there. The downstream is enthusiastic about rising. Before the festival, there is a small amount of replenishment demand, and the market climate is fair.

Raw materials: as of June 22, the market price of propylene in Shandong began to fall. According to the price of the business agency, the propylene market in Shandong increased by 250 yuan / ton in one week at the beginning of June, and there was a significant correction in the price in the middle of June, with a cumulative drop of 350 yuan / ton in the seventh day of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and picked up again. On June 19 last Friday, the price has risen 350-450 yuan / ton in a row. At the end of the week, the price remained stable. Today, the price dropped again by about 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market turnover is between 6780 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 6800 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, but the delivery situation is general.

Downstream: according to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 22, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in the mainstream region was around 11900 yuan / ton, up 6.57% compared with the price on June 1. As of June 22, the downstream soft foam polyether, under the cost pressure, passively follows up the raw material propylene oxide, and the downstream new order follows up generally.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, at present, the market price of raw material propylene starts to fall and the cost support is weakened, but the propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure for the time being. Some of the downstream products are in stock before the festival, and there is a certain support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will digest the increase and wait for operation.