In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, acetone market experienced a long downturn in the first quarter. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average price of acetone in China was 5500 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was 4050 yuan / ton, with the market down by 26.36%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 to 3750 yuan / ton on March 31, with a drop of 30.56% in the East China market.
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Average price trend of acetone in national market from 2019 to 2020
Looking back on the acetone market in 2019, there is no bottom line. At the beginning of April 2019, the market once fell to the “2″ period, setting a new record low. In the second half of 2019, the market improved and rose to more than 6000 yuan, finally out of the dark moment. However, in 2020, the whole bulk industry was affected by the epidemic situation. Acetone, as a chemical product, was no exception. At the end of the first quarter, the lowest point of the East China market was 3750 yuan / ton.
Average price trend of acetone in East China market in the first half of 2020
In the second quarter of 2020, the domestic epidemic situation improved, enterprises returned to work and production, and the market activity gradually increased. Acetone, as a petrochemical product and an important raw material of disinfectant isopropanol, broke through the situation and innovated in the second quarter, reaching the peak in history. However, it is hard to find the unattainable 10000 yuan acetone. In contrast, 2020 is the time to witness the history.
In the first quarter, under the influence of the epidemic, crude oil plummeted, demand was depressed, logistics was limited, and external processing plants were shut down, and the acetone market plummeted. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average price of acetone in China was 5500 yuan / ton, and on March 31, it was 4050 yuan / ton, with the market down by 26.36%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton on January 1 to 3750 yuan / ton on March 31, with a drop of 30.56% in the East China market.
In the second quarter, first of all, WTI and Brent soared by 25% in a single day due to the possibility of a production reduction agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price of 3240 yuan / ton) on the 10th, an increase of 32.4% The market rose from 3700 yuan / ton to 4900 yuan / ton on the 10th day, up 32% in a few days. At this time, the overseas epidemic broke out, and the demand for disinfectant isopropanol increased sharply. Acetone, as its raw material, was increasing day by day. However, the Hong Kong stock reached a low level of 37000 tons. Therefore, under the situation of raw material pure benzene ascending and import shortage, acetone ushered in the first boost.
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Secondly, the propylene market rose sharply in the middle of April. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking Shandong market as an example, the daily price increase of propylene enterprises on April 12 was more than 1000 yuan / ton, up 35.02%, and some enterprises even skyrocketed 5000 yuan / ton, with an increase of nearly 100%. From the perspective of the propylene acetone industrial chain, the increase in cost promoted the rise of acetone again, and isopropanol accumulated at this time With export orders scheduled to the end of May, the market demand is favorable and the future is expected. With the stimulation of the sharp rise of raw material propylene and the continuous favorable demand, the acetone factory concentrated on increasing 1000-1100 yuan / ton, which made the largest increase in history, and the market growth was far more than expected. The acetone market in East China rose to 6000 yuan / ton. Acetone ushered in a second boost.
Thirdly, in May, the spread of overseas epidemic situation reduced the source of imported goods, delayed unloading after arrival, and the acetone market was in short supply; the manufacturers controlled the volume of shipment, the industrial chain recovered in a centralized way, and other downstream demand of the terminal was gradually recovered, and the acetone market rose again. In May, the acetone market rose again to over 8000 yuan, a three-year high. After that, the news of factory shutdown for maintenance and quantity control and external delivery spread. At that time, the market heard that xisa chemical, Changshu Changchun and Sinopec No.3 well had overhaul plans in June, but there was still no shipping time to port. The market supply side rose again to the top of the storm, and acetone rose sharply to 9300 yuan / ton on the last trading day of May. In June, the acetone market reached a new high again. Within three days, acetone rose by 10%, easily breaking through 10000 yuan. Looking back on the history of nearly ten years, the market in the fourth quarter of 2013 was close to 10000 yuan, and in 2011, the market broke through 10000 yuan. As of June 10, the offer in East China was 11200 yuan / ton, that in South China was 12200 yuan / ton, and that in North China was 12000 yuan / ton.
At the end of the second quarter, after reaching a new high, acetone gradually fell back. After the acetone market broke through 10000 yuan, except for isopropanol plant, other downstream industries were in a loss state. Under the high cost pressure, bisphenol A and MMA plants kept falling negative, MIBK factory was shut down completely. With the rapid rise of acetone, isopropanol with large demand also had to push up again. High isopropanol was unsalable overseas, and more disinfection substitutes were put on the shelf, and isopropyl alcohol was on the shelf The overseas orders of alcohol were under pressure, and the reduction of factory orders also began to reduce the operating rate and the demand for acetone decreased. Acetone market also had to be rationally lowered. As of the end of the month, the acetone market fell again by 10000 yuan, and the acetone market in East China reached 9400-9600 yuan / ton. Although some factories were shut down for maintenance, the 10000 yuan acetone market in China has gone forever.
Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China
In July, the operating rate of acetone plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, in late July, the operating rate is expected to pick up, and the supply is relatively sufficient. At present, the cost of 9000 yuan / T acetone for downstream is still high, and most industries are still in a loss state. From the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the market for acetone will inevitably continue to decline under the favorable demand and unfavorable supply conditions. It is estimated that the acetone market will reach 8000-9000 yuan / ton in July.
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