1、 Overall trend

On January 17, the LLDPE commodity index was 70.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.12% from 117.56 (2013-12-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.69% from 69.91, the lowest point on September 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On January 17, LDPE commodity index was 62.74, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 44.64% from 113.33 (2013-12-08), and up 0.63% from 62.35, the lowest point on January 12, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On January 17, the HDPE commodity index was 63.36, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 38.08% lower than the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week (1.13-1.17) the ex factory price of polyethylene showed a narrow adjustment, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business agency was about 8062.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7816.67 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7350 yuan / ton. As of January 17, the prices of LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a stable trend this week, while the prices of LDPE showed a stable upward trend this week. Although the ex factory price of petrochemicals has not changed significantly, the overall market price of PE has fluctuated and increased, with most of the price increases ranging from 50-200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the linear futures rose in shock, which boosted the market mentality, and the price of merchants’ offer moved up. But Tuesday’s continuous decline in futures, to a certain extent, depressed the enthusiasm of the downstream market, coupled with the weak trend of international crude oil, merchants offered profits. The Spring Festival holiday is coming. Downstream factories are going to have holidays one after another. Terminal demand is weak, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak.

Import and export: the total import volume of PE in November 2019 is 1456300 tons. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 451900 tons, HDPE is 708600 tons and LDPE is 295800 tons. The total export volume of PE in November 2019 is 25900 tons. Among them, LDPE export volume is 7300 tons, HDPE export volume is 15300 tons and LLDPE export volume is 3300 tons.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, the downstream factories are going into the holiday state, the demand will gradually reduce, the shipping of merchants will be blocked, and the market atmosphere will continue to wait and see. Petrochemical stocks fell to a low level and supply side pressure weakened. It is expected that the future market will continue to be weak in the short term, with narrow adjustment as the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on January 16,PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 6800.00 yuan / ton, and the pet market fluctuated in a narrow range this week.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: polyester bottle Market in East China narrow finishing. At present, the offer of mainstream manufacturers is around 6700-6800 yuan / ton, and the market spot mainstream negotiation is around 6500-6650 yuan / ton. Zhejiang wankai’s latest offer is 6800 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory 6800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: polyester raw materials PTA Market narrow range finishing, general cost support, bottle chip manufacturers offer temporary stability, market negotiation focus is low-end. Downstream cautious wait-and-see, market trading light.

Industry: on January 15, PET commodity index was 51.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.72% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.10% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
3、 Future forecast

PET analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is low, and the main thing is to watch carefully.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on January 1 was 5350 yuan / ton, and on January 15 it was 5333.33 yuan / ton, which slightly decreased by 0.31% in half a month, up 23.55% compared with the same period last year. On January 14, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.58, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 9.60% from 128.96 (2019-07-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.90% from 91.15, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid market is weak and stable in the near future. The price of raw materials is stable for the time being, and the phosphoric acid market is also stable. The stock up of downstream enterprises before the festival is basically completed, and a few enterprises replenish goods sporadically. At present, the phosphoric acid market is generally traded, and the enterprise is still in good condition. Near the end of the year, the logistics has been shut down in succession, the factory is off in advance, and the phosphoric acid market is temporarily stable. According to the monitoring of business association, as of January 15, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5700 yuan / ton. The enterprise adjusted the price according to itself.

Industry chain: the domestic phosphate ore market continues to maintain a weak finishing operation, and the price of phosphate ore is lower than that just in winter. Yellow phosphorus spot is tight, yellow phosphorus trading gradually decreases towards the end of the year, mainly stable. The phosphate market remained stable for the time being, with limited market start-up.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 14, 2020, among which the top three commodities are acetone (4.08%), R22 (1.87%) and polyformaldehyde (1.86%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products are propane (- 2.50%), ammonium chloride (- 1.56%) and mixed xylene (- 1.22%). The average rise and fall of this day is 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the preparation of the downstream phosphoric acid before the festival is basically completed, and a small number of enterprises make up sporadically. Near the end of the year, the logistics has been shut down and the factory is about to have a holiday. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain weak and stable in the near future.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province on the 14th was 4566 yuan / ton, up 1.86% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is higher than the previous one. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4300 yuan / ton, which is higher than that of the last time. Market demand has improved.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol market, the domestic methanol market rose strongly last week. The average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week was 2097 yuan / ton, and 2207 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 5.24% in the week.

3、 Future forecast

The raw material methanol market is good, supporting the polyoxymethylene market. The polyoxymethylene analyst of the business club thinks that the festival demand will be boosted, and polyoxymethylene may be increased.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2215.00 yuan / ton, down 8.47% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the January 10 potassium chloride commodity index at 70.32.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2180 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.