1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, zinc prices plummeted after the opening on February 3. On February 3, the spot price of zinc was 17683.33 yuan / ton, and the price of zinc fell by 800 yuan / ton, or 4.72%. Zinc prices plummeted, zinc market bearish obvious.

2、 Market trend analysis

Market of domestic zinc enterprises

During the Spring Festival and the anti epidemic period, most of the zinc smelting enterprises were in normal production or had personnel on duty, and some enterprises resumed work on February 10. However, due to the limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to deliver goods; in terms of raw materials, most smelting enterprises have inventory from January to February, and the supply of raw materials is stable. Affected by the logistics and transportation, the situation of finished products piling up in the plant area often occurs. In the downstream, most of the galvanizing plants went to work on February 10. The sales situation of zinc ingots was poor, and the social inventory of zinc ingots increased a lot. In general, the supply of zinc is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price of zinc is under great pressure.

International LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that during the Spring Festival, the price of zinc in LME market plummeted. The pessimism spread in zinc market, and zinc price plummeted all the way. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market’s demand for zinc is expected to decline, and it is bearish to the macro-economy. The market’s risk aversion psychology is prominent. Financial customers mainly short and maintain their value, and the future market is bearish.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business association, believes that during the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the logistics and transportation are limited, the zinc enterprises are difficult to ship, the zinc smelter’s finished product inventory is often overstocked, the downstream customers stop production frequently, and the downstream demand drops; in terms of supply, the zinc smelter generally has inventory to maintain normal production, and there are more on duty personnel during the Spring Festival, and the zinc ingot production is basically normal, The supply of zinc ingots is sufficient, and the social stock of zinc ingots has increased significantly; the outbreak of the epidemic, the market risk aversion mentality is prominent, financial customers mainly short and maintain the value, the external quotation fell sharply during the Spring Festival, increasing the negative pressure on the domestic zinc market. Generally speaking, affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for zinc ingots has declined for a short time, the risk aversion psychology of zinc city is prominent, zinc market is short more, the supply of zinc market is normal, the stock of zinc ingots has increased, the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc market is prominent in the short term, the power of zinc price rising is insufficient, and it is expected that zinc price will rise difficultly in February, with a large downward pressure.

1、 Price trend

Price increase of regions from the beginning of January to the 31st of January

Zhejiang 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2800-2900 yuan / ton 7.69%

Jiangsu 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2650-2700 yuan / ton 10.42%

Shandong 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 12.5%

Henan 2300-2350 yuan / ton 2400-2450 yuan / ton 4.35%

Hebei 2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 10%

South China 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2700-2750 yuan / ton 3.85%

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise in January, with an average price of 2483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2750 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 10.74% in the whole month.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: due to the Early Spring Festival holiday in 2020, affected by the factors such as stock arrangement and downstream stock preparation of enterprises before the festival, the overall stock position of domestic acetic acid market continues, and there is a certain shortage of spot supply, so the price of acetic acid continues to rise, and during the Spring Festival, all acetic acid enterprises still maintain a relatively high rate of operation. Affected by the recent pneumonia epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the traffic and logistics around the country are limited, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth, and the market supply may decline.

Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol market is in shock and consolidation, and the pre festival market transaction is stagnant, at present, about 2242 yuan / ton; in the downstream, acetate, vinyl acetate and PTA industries are gradually entering the off-market period, with a good degree of stock before the festival, which is good for the price support of acetic acid, but with the extension of the Spring Festival and the development of pneumonia, the end of the market will be no longer good for the support.

International: at present, the international acetic acid market is affected by the high price of raw materials methanol, and the price of acetic acid is firm, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 750 / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 340-395 yuan / ton; the current price of acetic acid in Europe is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetate analysts of the business association, due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the impact of the pneumonia epidemic, the domestic acetic acid market is still flat, the downstream market and traders have a high degree of completion of goods preparation before the festival, and it is difficult to improve the demand to a large extent in the short term. In addition, due to the Limited Logistics and transportation, it is expected to run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 566 yuan / ton on January 13 and 565 yuan / ton on January 21, with a price drop of 0.29%. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on January 21 is 47.28, which is the same as yesterday, 55.51% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.00% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: near the Spring Festival, at present, the ammonium sulfate Market is light running, and the price fluctuation is not big. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-730 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the price of raw materials is stable, and the market is unchanged. Lower reaches compound fertilizer enterprise market weak reorganization. The holiday is coming and the demand for products is weakening. Some enterprises are overhauled during the Spring Festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17) in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the chemical industry sector, the top three commodities rising are acetone (4.08%), acetic acid (3.92%) and dichloromethane (3.63%). There are 24 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are glycol (- 5.93%), propane (- 5.26%), and ammonium chloride (- 3.91%). This week’s average was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association think that the market trend of ammonium sulphate before the festival is weak and the transaction is limited. Coking grade ammonium sulphate is in weak shock operation, and domestic grade ammonium sulphate is mainly transported in port. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 503.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average ex factory price of 503.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 64.88% from last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market was in weak and stable operation, the port inventory was high, there was a lack of information guidance in the field, the downstream construction was low, and the main thing was to wait and see, and the price was in shock and consolidation operation. At present, the supply and demand of sulfur market is weak. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the downstream demand is in a low state, and the delivery performance of refineries in various regions is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the festival atmosphere is strong, and the market is mainly stable. Refineries in various regions adjust their quotation according to their own delivery situation in the week, including the quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in East China is stable, and the price of liquid sulfur in Shandong is reduced by 30 yuan / ton Meanwhile, the price of solid and liquid sulfur in refineries in North China was reduced by 30 yuan / ton at the same time.

Industry chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is light in terms of investment, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Although there are downstream enterprises preparing goods before the festival, the overall market is still weak in terms of supply and demand, with limited support. The domestic market is operating in a differentiated way, with local market ups and downs showing each other. The acid companies also maintain stable shipments, keep inventories at a reasonable level, and have no obvious intention of price adjustment. Some of the main acid plants in Shandong continue to raise their acid prices, while others remain on the sidelines. Due to the weather, there are certain limitations in transportation. In addition, with the Festival approaching, acid companies dare not adjust their prices rashly, and the market is mostly stuck. Considering the impact of environmental protection and weather, there will be no obvious change before the year, and the later period will be acid market or weak finishing.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business club, at present, the market demand is low, the port inventory is still high, the mainstream factories are well stocked, the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, the attitude of the operators is different, and the market is expected to run stably, depending on the situation of the factories in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP market in mid January was stable and declined, with some brands down. As of January 19, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7516.67 yuan / ton, down 1.53% from the beginning of the week.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been generally stable this week. Influenced by the international crude oil, the domestic propylene price has rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. At present, the market turnover is about 6850-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7150-7200 yuan / ton. Recently, some domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units have been shut down to reduce the load, and the supply is still tight. On the upstream side, the recent international crude oil price is unstable, with a significant decline, but recently the crude oil price has picked up slightly, which has a certain impact on the propylene market. In general, the crude oil market has a limited range of changes, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. However, the shutdown situation of the unit is still the same, and the supply is still tight, so it is expected that the propylene market will be relatively cold in recent days, and the price will be mainly stable.

Product: this week’s high propylene market slightly callback, the cost side of PP support is OK. Near the Spring Festival, domestic petrochemical plants are actively reducing inventory and the price has been reduced. Two oil inventory low, market demand with the completion of pre Festival replenishment and began to weaken. The quotation of the merchants is loose, some of them have started to pre sell the goods after the festival, and the downstream is preparing to stop work for holidays, and the terminal delivery is light. The market performance is calmer and there is a phase of contradiction between supply and demand before the festival. This week, PP weak consolidation, spot prices have decreased.

3、 Future forecast

PP analyst of business club thinks: PP analyst of business club thinks: domestic PP spot market presents weak consolidation market in January. The upstream propylene market is acceptable, which has certain support for the cost side. The stock up of downstream plants before the festival is basically over, and petrochemical plants actively reduce inventory and price before the festival. The company sells or starts to pre sell at a profit. The quotation is loose and the profit is transferred. It is expected that PP market will enter a stable stage before the festival in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the change of propylene market at the cost end in the near future.