Weak downstream demand, narrow adjustment of PE spot market price (1.13-1.17)

1、 Overall trend

 

On January 17, the LLDPE commodity index was 70.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.12% from 117.56 (2013-12-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.69% from 69.91, the lowest point on September 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

On January 17, LDPE commodity index was 62.74, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 44.64% from 113.33 (2013-12-08), and up 0.63% from 62.35, the lowest point on January 12, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

PVA 2699

On January 17, the HDPE commodity index was 63.36, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 38.08% lower than the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week (1.13-1.17) the ex factory price of polyethylene showed a narrow adjustment, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business agency was about 8062.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7816.67 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7350 yuan / ton. As of January 17, the prices of LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a stable trend this week, while the prices of LDPE showed a stable upward trend this week. Although the ex factory price of petrochemicals has not changed significantly, the overall market price of PE has fluctuated and increased, with most of the price increases ranging from 50-200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the linear futures rose in shock, which boosted the market mentality, and the price of merchants’ offer moved up. But Tuesday’s continuous decline in futures, to a certain extent, depressed the enthusiasm of the downstream market, coupled with the weak trend of international crude oil, merchants offered profits. The Spring Festival holiday is coming. Downstream factories are going to have holidays one after another. Terminal demand is weak, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak.

PVA

 

Import and export: the total import volume of PE in November 2019 is 1456300 tons. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 451900 tons, HDPE is 708600 tons and LDPE is 295800 tons. The total export volume of PE in November 2019 is 25900 tons. Among them, LDPE export volume is 7300 tons, HDPE export volume is 15300 tons and LLDPE export volume is 3300 tons.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, the downstream factories are going into the holiday state, the demand will gradually reduce, the shipping of merchants will be blocked, and the market atmosphere will continue to wait and see. Petrochemical stocks fell to a low level and supply side pressure weakened. It is expected that the future market will continue to be weak in the short term, with narrow adjustment as the main trend.

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