1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3716.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 10 was 3240 yuan / ton, down 13.45% in the first ten days of January, up 45.39% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the LNG commodity index was 79.86, down 0.82 points from yesterday, down 61.78% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.99% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 10, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3220 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2300 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd 3250 yuan / ton. Liquid prices rose and fell in all regions, and fell as a whole.

Market analysis: after entering January, the decline of liquefied natural gas has not stopped, all the way down, falling 13.45% in the first ten days of January. In recent days, there are rain and snow in many places in the north, and there is the intention of going down to the south. As a result, the road is not smooth, LNG shipment is blocked, the manufacturer’s inventory is on the high side, and the liquid price continues to fall. For a long time, it may face shutdown. At present, most of the lower reaches purchase nearby, and some areas have a rising market. However, the terminal acceptance capacity is limited, but in fact, the delivery is average. In the tide of large-scale price reduction, Henan region has been outstanding in recent days, with continuous increase and fair trading. The main reason is that the temperature drops suddenly, the demand increases, and the supply of foreign products decreases, which leads to the rise of liquid price in Henan against the trend. However, the overall supply and demand of the market is difficult to balance, and the market is still weak. At present, it is close to the annual pass. Factories and schools are off in advance, and gas consumption is reduced. Upstream liquid plants are eager to ship, and the price reduction in some areas is slightly large, or even the price is adjusted twice a day. In the demand side dominated market, the terminal demand directly affects the LNG price. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand is reduced, the wait-and-see mood of the industry is increased, and the LNG price may further decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and dimethyl ether (2.05%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 6.45%), WTI (- 5.54%) and Brent (- 4.71%). This week’s average was – 0.69%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of the business association, the terminal demand is limited at present, and the northwest region and Inner Mongolia region have a large decline. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand has declined, and the wait-and-see mood of the operators has increased. It is expected that there will still be a reduction in the short term.

In recent years, China’s import volume of crude oil by sea has grown rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 10% in 2013-2018. During this period, with the promotion of diversified development of China’s import of crude oil, OPEC countries’ share in China’s import volume of crude oil by sea has declined. In any case, although OPEC’s crude oil exports have been under pressure in recent years, its share of China’s crude oil imports is stabilizing.

OPEC: important

China is an important driving force of global crude oil shipping trade. China’s import volume of crude oil shipping increased from 254 million tons (5.1 million barrels / day) in 2013 to 412 million tons (8.3 million barrels / day) in 2018, accounting for 20% of global crude oil shipping trade. The suppliers of China’s crude oil imports are widely distributed, but 75% of China’s crude oil imports in 2013 came from OPEC countries, which is higher than the proportion of OPEC in the global crude oil marine exports in the same year (64%).

Since 2013, China’s crude oil imports from OPEC and non OPEC countries have increased year by year (see chart this month). During 2013-2018, China’s total import of OPEC crude oil increased by 33%, while the export volume of OPEC countries increased by only 3% over the same period. Although the implementation of production reduction agreements since 2017 has limited the growth of OPEC crude oil exports, and supply of some countries has been interrupted due to the impact of sanctions, China’s crude oil imports from OPEC have continued to increase in recent years. This is mainly supported by the “oil for loan” agreement between China and Angola and the further cooperation between China and Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, more OPEC crude oil is shipped to China due to the decline of US crude oil imports.

Non OPEC: a rising star

However, since the annual compound growth rate of China’s crude oil imports from non OPEC countries reached 20% in 2013-2018 (compared with 6% in OPEC countries), the share of China’s crude oil imports from OPEC fell sharply in 2013-2017, only 62% in 2018, close to the global share of OPEC crude oil exports. Among the major non OPEC suppliers, Russia’s crude oil exports to China have increased significantly in recent years. Due to the growing demand for local refineries in China and the growing preference for Russian crude oil, Russia’s share of China’s crude oil import by sea increased from 2% in 2013 to 8% in 2018. Meanwhile, China imported 12% of its crude oil from Brazil and the UK in 2018 (only 2% in 2013). In 2017 and the first half of 2018, China’s imports of crude oil from the United States also increased (a total of 12 million tons of US crude oil were imported in 2018).

Stable?

However, the contraction of OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports seems to have slowed down in the near future, from 64% in 2017 to 62% in 2018, and relatively stable at 61% in January October 2019. This year, for the first time in the past six years, China’s imports of crude oil from OPEC countries exceeded those from non OPEC countries (despite a decline in imports from Iran and Venezuela). This is mainly due to the fact that after Saudi Aramco signed supply contracts with some private refineries in 2018, the crude oil imported from Saudi Arabia by China this year increased 62% to 64 million tons year on year. At the same time, the “trade war” between China and the United States has also led to the shift of China’s crude oil imports to some OPEC countries.

In short, in recent years, China’s crude oil import shows a diversified development trend, but OPEC’s share in China’s crude oil import is becoming stable. China is an important export destination of OPEC, but the preliminary agreement reached in the “trade war” between China and the United States recently and OPEC may further reduce production next year. The proportion of OPEC in China next year deserves close attention.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

The average price of acrylic acid as of January 8 was 8133.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of January 7, up 2.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On August 8, the main quotation of acrylic acid in China was 7300-9300 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market was stable on August 8. Acrylic acid market spot supply is limited, downstream just need to purchase, inquiry enthusiasm has improved, the overall market is stable. At present, the price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed on a case by case basis. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market of propylene in Shandong continued to rise on August 8. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, and on January 7, it began to rise again. Today, the enterprise price is still slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is about 6950-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business club believe that in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, and the cost support has been strengthened. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable and positive in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream and mainstream market conditions.

On January 6, the rare earth index was 338, down 1 point from yesterday, 66.20% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point, 271, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 367000 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide are 280000 yuan / ton, 1715000 yuan / ton, 332500 yuan / ton and 291000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 359000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1685000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market has declined. The domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, the export of heavy and rare earth are normal. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply has decreased, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth has declined slightly. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of business news agency predict that the intensity of domestic environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in the near future. In addition, the domestic export market of rare earth industry has been supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a better way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will fluctuate mainly.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price slightly declined and quoted 48751.67 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from the previous day, up 4.12% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main market hit a high of 49010 yuan at the beginning of the day and then came back to 48760 yuan at the end of the day, down 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, copper price fluctuated in a narrow range. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, and the strong performance of the employment market stopped the decline of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the downward pressure of the global economy is large, and the demand outlook of the copper market is still worried. In addition, the recent recovery of copper inventory in Shanghai has put pressure on the copper price. However, the easing of international trade tensions and the reduction of the Central Bank of China’s reserve have also resulted in the tight supply of upstream copper mines, and the copper processing fee TC At a low level, the copper price formed part of the support.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business agency believe that the domestic production reduction has not yet been implemented, and the copper in the period is in a downward trend under the background of the lack of good news. However, there is a certain support for copper market fundamentals, copper prices continue to decline or limited space to maintain a narrow range of volatile trend.