1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on July 23, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6487.5 yuan / ton, up 3.8% compared with the beginning of the month, 2.98% higher than that of the previous month, and 3.64% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the PVC market first rose rapidly, all the way up, and then began to moderate callback after the middle of the year. The stronger futures in this month led to a strong rise in the spot market. However, under the condition of insufficient follow-up at the lower demand side and no significant change in fundamentals, the continuous rise lacks support. After a continuous increase of 5.36% in the first ten days of July, it is normal for the PVC market to enter into a rational callback stage, but the range of adjustment is not large, and the manufacturers’ attitude of supporting prices remains unchanged. Recently, the spot market of PVC has stabilized, and the rainy weather in the South has restrained some demand. Therefore, the market trading is relatively flat. Some manufacturers sell goods at a profit, and most of the downstream companies supply goods on demand. Due to the tight supply of goods in some areas, the pre-sale is good, and the operators have a calm and wait-and-see attitude. At present, the demand side support is still in place, and the social inventory is also continuing to be removed. In addition, there are good supports such as maintenance by manufacturers, tight local supply and rising costs. It is not easy to be too pessimistic for a short-term rational callback.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 23, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 type calcium carbide was around 6350-6650 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6500-6600 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 6420-6500 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6520-6600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6620-6680 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease in quotations.

In terms of futures, the V2009 contract opened at 6545 on Thursday, with the highest price of 6630, the lowest price of 6520 and the closing price of 6540, down 55 or 0.83%. The trading volume was 164000 hands, an increase of 41000 hands. The position was 162000, decreased by 2440.

In terms of demand, July is in the off-season of consumption, and the downstream enterprises are generally in general. In addition, in the rainy season in the south, the downstream enterprises’ operating rate has declined. They do not stock up a large number of PVC products which continue to go up. Their enthusiasm is not high. They mainly focus on just needed procurement, and a small amount of replenishment. The start-up of enterprises such as pipes and profiles is at a medium level. The demand of medical industry is good, and other product industries still perform poorly. Overall, PVC market demand has fallen, but the support is still in, only the strength is weakened.

Statistical data show that from January to June, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC reached 10.051 million tons, which was 0.55% lower than that of 10.1065 million tons in the same period of 2019. The average monthly apparent consumption was about 1.6752 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year.

In terms of supply, there were not many maintenance and repair enterprises in July, and the early maintenance enterprises had resumed work, the output was increased, and the market supply pressure was not great. The supply of goods in South China was still tight, and there was no pressure on sales. Most manufacturers were pre-sale orders, and their confidence in supporting prices was enhanced. With the arrival of imported goods in the later period, maintenance enterprises resume production, increase production capacity, and put in new production capacity, the supply is increasingly abundant.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in June 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.631 million tons, up 2% compared with the same period last year; from January to June 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 9.688 million tons, down 3.2% compared with the same period last year.

Crude oil: on July 22, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.90/barrel, down $0.02. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $44.29/barrel, down $0.03. Oil prices remained almost unchanged on Wednesday, after data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and Wednesday’s EIA data also showed an unexpected increase in crude and distillate stocks. In addition, tensions between China and the United States have risen.

Ethylene, the overall trend of ethylene is rising slightly in the near future. As of July 22, CFR closed at $795-805 per ton in Northeast Asia and $700-710 in South East Asia. The market price of ethylene in Europe is FD, northwest Europe closed at 754-764 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 695-703 US dollars / ton. The price is 335-353 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the recent market situation of ethylene in Europe and America is mainly stable and rising, the demand of the whole ethylene market is fair, the trading atmosphere is general, and the increase is small. Oil prices continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at $40, and the market was in a state of anxiety. The implementation rate of production reduction in many countries exceeded 100%. This is the supply and demand side of the Lido bottom crude oil market. The formation cost of ethylene is supported, and the ethylene price is currently at a low level, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will mainly rise next.

Calcium carbide, in late July, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. As of the 23rd, the main calcium carbide manufacturer’s factory quotation was 2530 yuan / ton, up slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has declined, the decline is limited. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, and the calcium carbide production capacity is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is relatively tight. The later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late July.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current PVC futures fluctuate and fall, and the spot market fluctuates slightly. Some enterprises make profits to ship goods, and the transaction atmosphere turns weak. Although the demand in the off-season is not high, the support is still there, and the short-term maintenance is still good. It is expected that the trend of PVC will fluctuate slightly, and it is possible to continue to callback. It is also necessary to pay attention to the futures trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable after rising this week, with a slight decline over the weekend, with the weekly low price of 6785 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6870 yuan / ton at the weekend, and 6876 yuan / ton on Wednesday and Thursday, with a weekly increase of 1.25% and a weekly amplitude of 1.34%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price dropped by about 250 yuan / ton. From the 12th to the 16th, the price dropped by 150-200 yuan / ton. Since the third round of rise on 18th, the price has risen about 150 yuan / ton. In recent days, most of the prices are stable. The market transaction is between 6800 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6800-6850 yuan / ton. Now propylene manufacturers shipping general, inventory pressure is not big.

On July 23, crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on propylene.

Recently, PP futures market was weak, spot price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.68%, which may have a little negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market this week to maintain stability, the impact on propylene is not big.

Propylene oxide market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 3.64%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin remained stable this week, and fell by 1.36% at the end of the week, which had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price remained stable in the first half of this week, and rose in the second half, with a weekly increase of 2.10%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

Octanol market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 2.12%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market showed a steady downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 2.23%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

Phenol in East China rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 1.79%.

East China acetone has a slight decline this week, with a weekly decline of 3.54%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: Generally speaking, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, but the shipment is general, the crude oil price is slightly increased, the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, the PP market is relatively calm, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading is stable. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still in the upper limit of the oscillation range, so it is expected that propylene prices will generally decline in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, due to the poor demand, the East China ethyl acetate market began to decline gradually. As of July 22, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5570 yuan / ton, down 0.9% compared with the same period last week and 3.72% higher than that of the same period last month.

At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic ethyl acetate Market as a whole. The demand in the downstream market is weak, and the supply exceeds the demand in the industry. However, the overall performance of the upstream market is strong, and the pressure on the production cost of enterprises is obvious, and the market performance is stagnant.

In terms of raw materials, the overall supply and demand game of acetic acid market, and the fluctuation of some enterprises’ devices led to a slight rise in prices, but the overall market still tends to be stable. With the expected increase of future supply, there is a possibility of a decline in the long term. The ethanol market continued to rise, and the price of raw material corn supported the rise of ethanol price. Some enterprises did not make an offer and the market supply was tight.

Internationally, the overall performance of international ethyl acetate is relatively stable, among which the port price of European market is about 740 euro / ton; the port price of North American market is about 650-670 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the spot supply of domestic ethyl acetate Market is stable, the downstream demand is limited, and the market transaction is insufficient. Although the cost side support is strong, the situation of oversupply in the industry is difficult to ease, and it is expected to operate stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, as of July 21, the average price of maleic anhydride in China was 6433 yuan / ton (including tax), and the overall market was stable, with a decrease of 0.52% compared with the average price of 6533 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

On July 21, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 60.60, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 51.00% from the highest point of 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 18.41% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: at present, the domestic price of maleic anhydride continues to rise, the transaction center of various markets moves up, the spot supply in the industry is tight, some middlemen offer high prices, and the main production areas have the intention to continue to increase the price of new orders, driving the surrounding market up.

Industrial chain: affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of hydrobenzene market continued to decline, and the market was still reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene market may remain stagnant, and the hydrobenzene market fundamentals are still under pressure; the downstream unsaturated resin market is in a horizontal direction, with strong market wait-and-see sentiment, and with maleic anhydride, the cost pressure is becoming increasingly obvious.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of the business agency, the current market of maleic anhydride is rising continuously, and Nanxun is the dominant source of goods in various regions. Enterprises are reluctant to sell more prices, and it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will be firm in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the contract quotation of Sinopec o-benzene was stable in July. As of July 20, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4500 yuan / T in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month and 24.41% lower than that of the same period in 19 years. The price of o-benzene is lower than that of the same period in 19 years.

Price trend of raw materials

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price fell in July, the raw material cost of o-benzene decreased, the o-benzene market was negative, and the future market of o-xylene was bearish.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price fell in July, and the phthalic anhydride market fell all the way. The downstream of o-benzene was lower, the demand for o-benzene decreased, and the market of o-benzene was negative.

Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, the upstream and downstream market of the o-xylene industry chain both fell in July, which had a greater negative impact on the o-xylene market and increased the pressure on the decline of o-benzene. The external price of o-benzene decreased slightly, which was negative for the domestic market of o-benzene. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene is unfavorable, and the downward pressure on the future market of o-benzene increases. It is difficult to maintain the stability of o-benzene market, and it is expected that the market of o-benzene will decline in the future.