1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on May 13 was 5200 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from last Wednesday (6 days), and 11.83% from the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On May 12, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 111.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 22.30% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: in May, domestic demand basically recovered, phosphoric acid shipments were in good condition, downstream inquiries increased, and the support of raw material end yellow phosphorus was acceptable, so the trend of phosphoric acid market became stronger. At present, in the peak season of chemical fertilizer, most phosphoric acid manufacturers in some areas produce and use their own products. They are reluctant to sell. As a result, local sources of goods in the field are tight, and the offer is up. On May 22, the two sessions in Beijing, some regions may have plans to suspend production, which will boost the market atmosphere. On the whole, the phosphoric acid market is stable and moving slightly, and the willingness of the buyer to push up is enhanced, and the trend of phosphoric acid is stronger. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of May 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi is about 5150 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing is about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of Hubei is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: Recently, the phosphate ore market is still stable, and the overall market is weak. The trading atmosphere is general, so it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will still be in the main consolidation and operation in the short term. Since May, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been temporarily stable, and the quotation range of the market is relatively small, among which the enterprises with short supply of goods have a slight trend of strong price, but the overall turnover of the market is not many new orders, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and the traders mainly wait and see. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 12, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are caprolactam (9.19%), acetone (3.85%) and ethylene oxide (3.17%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were propane (- 2.95%), hydrofluoric acid (- 2.53%) and chlorinated paraffin (- 2.05%). The average price of this day is 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the business, social and chemical branch, the cost end support of the phosphoric acid market is acceptable at present, the delivery pressure of manufacturers is reduced, the supply of goods in some regions is tight, the willingness of merchants to push up is enhanced, and other regions are still on the lookout. It is expected that the trend of the phosphoric acid market will be stable and small in the short term, with consolidation as the main trend.

On May 11, the PX commodity index was 32.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 68.75% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 till now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 8, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 2 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 470-472 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 490-492 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 40% of PX needs to be imported in China. Recently, affected by the rise of crude oil price, the external price trend of PX fluctuated, and the price trend of PX market was temporarily stable.

As of August 8, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 26.17 yuan / barrel, up $1.34. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was $30.97/barrel, up $1.51. The daily output of oil and gas condensate in Russia fell to 9.5 million barrels in the first five days of May, the first time since August 2009 to fall below 10 million barrels. Although the latest data shows that the daily output of Russian natural gas, including natural gas condensate, is only 1.296 million tons, it only lasted for a few days, This shows that Russia is fulfilling its commitment to reduce production under a global agreement. The rise of crude oil price has certain cost support for downstream petrochemical products, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price trend of domestic PTA spot market is volatile. As of May 11, the market average price is 3400-3500 yuan / ton, and PTA price slightly increased. On the premise of overseas resumption of work and crude oil production reduction, oil price is supported, but the short-term excess pressure of crude oil is hard to ease, and there is still pressure for oil price rebound; under the support of device maintenance and demand, domestic PX supply and demand margin is improved, but under the high storage pressure, the price is still suppressed, and the overall cost end support is limited. In terms of supply and demand, there is no sign of improvement for the terminal. In May, the pressure of polyester stock accumulation is large, and the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is still prominent. The expectation of stock accumulation is maintained, and the processing fee is expected to be reduced. Overall, in May, it was still suppressed by “three highs” (high startup, high inventory and high profit), and the price center fluctuated with crude oil, while the domestic p-xylene price trend was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the crude oil price trend is rising, the downstream PTA market price is slightly higher, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved. The business analysts believe that the PX market price may or will be stable temporarily.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the spot nickel price this week shows a trend of first restraining and then rising. The weekend price is 102066.67 yuan / ton, up 0.49% from 101566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 3.71% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this week, the main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 98960. After the price rose, it fell into shock. On Friday, it closed at 101720, up 1.77% in the week. Lennie closed at $12295 at Friday’s closing, up 2.93% on the week.

After the festival, the price of stainless steel rose actively in the downstream, and the nickel market also recovered the decline during the May Day holiday. Due to the recent rise of nickel, iron and nickel ore price, the increase of raw material cost, the increase of steel plant price, and the decline of stainless steel social inventory in April, the centralized release of demand, if stainless steel profits and production scheduling can be stable in the current position, or even with the continuous expansion of demand, it is a strong support for nickel products. LME nickel inventory was basically stable this week.

Since April, the price of ferronickel has risen significantly, from 872.5 yuan / nickel point in early April to 955 yuan / nickel point this week. The recovery of ferronickel price is the main support for the price rise of nickel ore. if ferronickel still maintains a large upside down state of early profits, some manufacturers continue to buy ore with weak production intention, and the possibility of price rise is small. According to the latest research results, nickel iron still decreased in April, but with the high price of iron holding steady in May and the ore end easing, the output will pick up.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: raw material price support plus active price increase of stainless steel plant, stainless steel price remains strong, and the downstream current acceptance is acceptable, and transaction is relatively active. Therefore, if stainless steel keeps a good market, its purchase and consumption of nickel will also be at an ideal level, which is relatively hard to be broken, so although the current macro environment is still difficult to support a sharp rise in price The price of nickel still tends to increase. It is predicted that the short-term fluctuation of nickel is relatively strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of April 30, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 5800 yuan / ton, which is 266 yuan / ton lower than the average market price of 6066 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1), or 4.40% lower.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in April, the butanone market fell as a whole. In early April, the market inquiry atmosphere was cold. Affected by international public health events, the market export restriction increased, foreign trade orders decreased, domestic downstream demand was low, the overall market demand was reduced, and the factory could not bear the inventory pressure. The factory lowered the factory price of butanone one one after another. On March 3, the factory reference price of butanone fell below 5900 yuan / ton The market of China butanone recovered briefly, and the overall quotation of the market was slightly increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is still strong, and there are few transactions in the market. In addition, the sharp drop in crude oil also depresses the mentality of the industry. Under the condition of reduced supply, it is difficult to stop the market decline. On the 20th, the domestic market fell again, falling all the way to the end of the month. As of the 30th, according to the data of the business association, the market was supervised The test shows that the average ex factory price of butanone is 5800 yuan / ton, which is about 300 yuan / ton lower than the market price at the beginning of the month, with an overall decrease of 4.4%.

Industrial chain: in April, liquefied gas rose first and then fell. The overall trend is still greatly affected by international crude oil. In the first half of the month, CP fell in the civil market of liquefied gas, but the decline was less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market, and crude oil closed up. In addition, the demand for downstream storage and replenishment was relatively positive, the market atmosphere was good, the factory shipped smoothly, the inventory was ok, and the price was continuously increased. On the 12th, driven by the sharp rise of propane in Shandong Province, the price of liquefied gas rose sharply, only 15.21% on the 3rd. However, the upward trend lacked substantial benefits, and then ushered in a rational decline. In the second half of the month, the civil market of liquefied gas fell mainly, propane fell sharply, the liquefied gas market returned to rationality, and the price fell in a step-by-step manner. International crude oil suffered another setback on the 14th, and continued to decline sharply on the 20th. The news weighed on the market mentality, while the downstream mentality was cautious and wait-and-see. The manufacturer’s shipment is blocked continuously, the inventory is increasing gradually, and the successive profits are used to stimulate the shipment. On the 23rd, under the favorable rebound of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market pushed up slightly, but on the 27th, the global crude oil inventory remained high, the market was still worried that the reduction of production was not enough to offset the decline of demand, the international oil price fell sharply, and liquefied gas followed the decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis by the Data Engineer of the business agency, since 2020, the domestic market demand for butanone has been in a low state. In February and March, the export orders of the butanone market are relatively large. Although the export volume has increased, it has not been able to drive the domestic butanone market. The main reason is still related to the demand of the domestic downstream market. In April, the export orders decreased, and the market fell into a low state again. It is expected to be out in the short term Export orders may decrease again. If domestic demand fails to recover in time, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to be weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

In April 2020, the domestic antimony ingot market fell at the end of the month, with the average price of 38125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 37125 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2.62%.

On April 30, the antimony commodity index was 51.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.49% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.00% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony trioxide in this month is lower along with the price of antimony ingot. As of the 30th, 99.5% is 33500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% is 35000 yuan / ton.

Domestic market: this month, the antimony ingot Market remained basically stable, and the price was lowered only once in the middle of the month. Due to the influence of foreign conditions, the domestic and foreign market demand remained weak throughout April, and domestic buyers and sellers were still waiting. In terms of price, as of the 30th, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots is RMB 35500 / T, 1 × antimony ingots is RMB 36000 / T, 0 × antimony ingots is RMB 37000 / T, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is RMB 33000 / T.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 7 commodities in the price up and down list of bulk commodities in April 2020, including 7 commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 31.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are aluminum (11.16%), copper (8.73%) and nickel (8.40%). There are 14 commodities with a decline of more than 5% month on month, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are silicon metal (- 5.10%), magnesium (- 4.61%) and cobalt (- 4.37%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.93%.

3、 Future prospects

Overseas situation is still serious, and there is no sign of improvement in export in a short time. It is expected to wait and see in the short term.