1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the copper price rose sharply in November, from 51528.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 57491.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 11.57% and a year-on-year increase of 21.47%. After four months of high horizontal consolidation, copper prices began to rise rapidly to a seven-year high in late November. Copper has a strong metal attribute. After the recent U.S. election risk has gradually weakened, with the progress of the new crown vaccine and the optimistic expectation of overseas fiscal stimulus, copper prices have continued to rise.

According to the current chart of business associations, the spot price of copper in November was basically slightly higher than the futures price. The main contract is the expected price two months later, which shows that the market expected price is not so optimistic, but the price is very close, which shows that there is no need to be too pessimistic. The copper price is still relatively strong in the short term.

Domestic macro trend

The domestic epidemic situation control has achieved a key victory, the economy has recovered steadily, and various economic data have improved significantly. In October, the added value of China’s industries above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, and is expected to increase by 6.5%. In addition to China’s accession to RECP, copper and its products are among the industries whose export growth rate is more than 20%. Therefore, the data is more optimistic.

Supply is still tight

As for copper concentrate, Chile’s president decided on September 11 to extend the national emergency law, which came into effect on March 18, for another 90 days from September 15. At present, the impact on production is still relatively limited, but the potential threat to transportation is still there. Moreover, with the rebound of copper price and the fermentation of epidemic situation, there have been continuous mine strikes in Chile since the end of the third quarter. Among them, a trade union of Lundin Mining Co., Ltd., located in the Candelaria copper mine in northern Chile, has accepted its proposed collective labor agreement for a period of 35 months. Previously, these workers have been on strike for more than one month. At present, all five unions in the mine have paid new salaries with them The contract was agreed. Although Peru’s production is steadily recovering, it is understood that its transportation links are still greatly affected. Moreover, the increase of overseas mines in 2021 is limited, especially in the first half of the year, copper concentrate may maintain a tight supply pattern, supporting the copper price.

The downstream market is optimistic

In terms of automobiles: in October, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.522 million and 2.573 million respectively, up 0.9% and 0.1% month on month, and 11.0% and 12.5% respectively year-on-year. As of November, automobile production and sales have been growing for seven consecutive months, of which the sales volume has maintained a growth rate of more than 10% for six consecutive months. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles were 19519 million and 19.69 million, respectively, down 4.6% and 4.7% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow by 2.1 and 2.2 percentage points compared with January September.

Household appliances: according to the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the national real estate development investment was 11655.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of January September. In terms of real estate development prosperity index, the real estate development prosperity index in October was 100.5, 0.08 points higher than that in August.

Household appliances: in October, China’s refrigerator output was 8.796 million units, up 25.8% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative production of refrigerators in China was 73.711 million units, up 4% year-on-year. In October, China’s air conditioning output reached 14.489 million units, up 0.2% year-on-year.

In terms of real estate, according to the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the national real estate development investment reached 11655.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of January September. In terms of real estate development prosperity index, the real estate development prosperity index in October was 100.5, 0.08 points higher than that in August.

Overall, China’s auto market and home appliance market have improved significantly, and the real estate market has also continued to perform well. Moreover, at a recent meeting of the Ministry of Commerce, it was emphasized that next year will be the first year of the “14th five year plan”, so as to stabilize and expand automobile consumption and boost household appliances and furniture consumption. With policy support from the automobile industry and home appliance industry, it is expected that the performance will continue to improve, and copper demand will continue to be boosted.

Low inventory

In Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper stocks have fallen to 96766 tons below 100000 tons since September, the lowest level since December 2014. Copper prices were supported by lower copper inventories in LME warehouses, which have fallen more than 15% to 153, 175 tons since mid October. As of November 27, the copper inventory was 150775 tons, with a daily decrease of 1250 tons.

In view of the above situation, the macro level continued to improve and the fundamentals performed well, and this year’s Spring Festival holiday was late, and enterprises started work for a long time. Entering the fourth quarter, the automobile has ushered in the peak consumption season. Copper analysts believe that copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of this month, while it showed a straight upward trend in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 6737 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price was over 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on the 8th and 9th, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, the price rose by 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. From November 19, all propylene prices rose again, and kept about 5 The upward speed of 0-100 yuan / ton for ten consecutive days has been about 800 yuan / ton, and the increase has reached 12.27% from 18th to 28th. The price has been stable since the end of the month. At present, the market transaction is between 7550 yuan / ton and 7850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7650 yuan / ton and 7700 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is small, the shipment situation is good.

On the upstream side, the crude oil price has risen in recent years, with slight fluctuation, which has a limited impact on propylene.

PP began to rise continuously in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 11.25%. The futures market is also relatively ideal, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

This month, the price of acrylic acid gradually rebounded after the steep decline in the first ten days, with a monthly decline of 9.55% and a monthly amplitude of 30.25%, which has a limited impact on the favorable effects of propylene.

Propylene oxide also rose after a significant decline in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly increase of 0.56% and a monthly amplitude of 32.19%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin continued to rise in this month and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 20.99% and a monthly amplitude of 22.53%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

Isopropanol rose significantly in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 33.76% and a monthly amplitude of 42.19%, which had a significant positive effect on propylene.

This month, the domestic n-butanol price rose steadily and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 38.23% and a monthly amplitude of 38.93%, which had a significant positive impact on the propylene market.

Octanol also showed a steady upward trend this month, with a monthly increase of 27.23%, which also had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China rose sharply in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 21.05% and a monthly amplitude of 25.23%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in East China also rose sharply in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 39.48%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have less inventory, the crude oil price is up and down, the downstream market is better, and the increase is more obvious, but the market started to stabilize at the end of the month, and the upward pressure in the later stage is greater, so it is expected that the propylene price will stabilize temporarily in the near future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise sharply in November. As of the 27th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7450 yuan / ton, which was 18.25% higher than that of 6300 yuan / ton on the first day, and 18.25% higher than that of 6300 yuan / ton on the first day. The spot supply on the spot was slightly tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise sharply.

In November, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market improved, the downstream demand increased recently, the price of o-benzene rose sharply, the market of plasticizer improved, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, the price trend of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started operation at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was less than 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was tight, and the dealers were not willing to ship at a low price. The price of phthalic anhydride in the field rose sharply. The market of downstream plasticizer industry went up, the actual transaction increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride went up. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose sharply, with limited high-end transactions. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 7400-7600 yuan / ton, while that of naphthalene process was 7000-7200 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 7400-7500 yuan / T, and the observation state of phthalic anhydride field was still in existence. Recently, the transaction volume of phthalic anhydride market decreased slightly, and the driving force of continuous increase was insufficient.

In November, the domestic price of o-benzene was very high. At the end of the month, the domestic price of o-benzene was 5380 yuan / T, which was 22.27% higher than the price of 4400 yuan / T at the beginning of the month. The sharp rise of domestic o-benzene price is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the price of imported o-benzene in the port area has risen sharply. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual list is discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants have low prices However, the price of o-benzene rose sharply and the price of raw materials went up, which benefited the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride.

The DOP market price of phthalic anhydride downstream rose sharply in November. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 9866.67 yuan / ton as of the 27th day, which was 32.44% higher than that of 7450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol in the field rose sharply. The DOP unit operated stably, the spot supply was normal, and the DOP market price skyrocketed. The market of plasticizer industry rose, with DOP market quotation of 9900-10400 yuan / ton. The transaction of plasticizer in the market was general, and the downstream market was significantly higher. The price of domestic phthalic anhydride was greatly increased.

On the whole, crude oil prices have risen recently. In addition, winter is the peak sales season for the plasticizer industry, and the prices of plasticizer products have increased significantly. The phthalic anhydride market is supported by favorable conditions, and the price continues to rise.

In the future, the domestic phthalic anhydride price trend is rising, but the plasticizer transaction market continues to rise, the driving force is insufficient, and the resistance of plasticizer price rising increases. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will fall back to a high level in December.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

The propylene oxide market rose first and then fell this week. According to the data of the business club, as of November 27, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 19100 yuan / ton, down 0.69% compared with the beginning of the week, 5.72% higher than October 27, and 89.11% higher than that of the same period last year.

At the beginning of the week (23rd), the average price quoted by enterprises was 19233.33 yuan / ton, representing the slow accumulation of propylene oxide plants. The overall pressure on shipment was not large. On the 24th, the new order negotiation rose narrowly; on the 25th, the market was temporarily stable; on the 26th, the willingness to lower prices in the middle and lower reaches of the market was generally lower. On the 27th, the offer of new orders was temporarily stable, and the middle and lower reaches held a weak wait-and-see mood.

On November 26, the propylene oxide commodity index was 118.88, down 1.24 points compared with yesterday, 1.03% lower than 120.12 points (2020-11-25), and 185.08% higher than 41.70 points, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream propylene, on November 27, the market price of propylene in Shandong rose. According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on the 8th and 9th, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, the price rose by 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. From November 19, all propylene prices rose again, and kept about 5 The upward speed of 0-100 yuan / ton for nine consecutive days has risen by about 750 yuan / ton. From 18th to 27th, the increase has reached 11.28%. At present, the market turnover is between 7580 yuan / ton and 7800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is small, the shipment situation is good.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 26, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 12633.33 yuan / ton, down 0.79% compared with the beginning of the week; for downstream soft foam polyether, on November 27, the focus of negotiation on soft foam polyether Market in Shandong area shifted downward, new downstream orders were rarely followed up, and the factory offer was weak and stable. At present, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether market in Shandong Province was given It is around 18200-18700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that the price of propylene raw materials has risen recently, the cost support has been strengthened, new downstream orders have been reduced, and the sentiment of avoiding risks and waiting to fall is rising. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by weak consolidation, and the specific trend needs more attention to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the negative operation of enterprises, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has been rising steadily. As of November 26, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3250 yuan / ton, up 3.17% compared with the beginning of the month and 6.56% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Shandong Jinling 440000 T / a Dawang plant 20%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen: 160000 tons / year

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 70%

At present, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong is stable and upward. Some enterprises’ negative pressure has led to a slight decline in market supply. The overall market inventory pressure is not big, and enterprises have good intention to push forward. The demand of downstream and traders has increased slightly, and the dichloromethane market is running steadily. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3200-3250 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3700 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, due to the weather in some parts of the methanol market, there is no quotation for the shutdown and overhaul of the units. The inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term; the liquid chlorine market will continue to remain high, and the market shipment will slow down, but the performance of downstream rigid demand will remain firm. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the current trend of refrigerant market is stable, raw materials are rising, and the demand of automobile industry entering the stock stage is improved, which has boosted the market. However, the demand has not been large, and the export side is difficult to improve, showing a weak demand situation. In addition, the release of new capacity, the increase of inventory, and the game between supply and demand; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and the support for dichloromethane was insufficient.

Analysts of methane chloride data from the business society believe that the current domestic dichloromethane market spot supply has declined slightly, stimulating the demand enthusiasm of downstream and traders, and the overall purchasing has increased. The inventory pressure of dichloromethane enterprises is not big. It is expected that dichloromethane prices will be stable in a short period of time. Pay attention to the changes of liquid chlorine prices of raw materials.