1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business association, as of April 30, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 5800 yuan / ton, which is 266 yuan / ton lower than the average market price of 6066 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1), or 4.40% lower.
2、 Market analysis
Product: in April, the butanone market fell as a whole. In early April, the market inquiry atmosphere was cold. Affected by international public health events, the market export restriction increased, foreign trade orders decreased, domestic downstream demand was low, the overall market demand was reduced, and the factory could not bear the inventory pressure. The factory lowered the factory price of butanone one one after another. On March 3, the factory reference price of butanone fell below 5900 yuan / ton The market of China butanone recovered briefly, and the overall quotation of the market was slightly increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is still strong, and there are few transactions in the market. In addition, the sharp drop in crude oil also depresses the mentality of the industry. Under the condition of reduced supply, it is difficult to stop the market decline. On the 20th, the domestic market fell again, falling all the way to the end of the month. As of the 30th, according to the data of the business association, the market was supervised The test shows that the average ex factory price of butanone is 5800 yuan / ton, which is about 300 yuan / ton lower than the market price at the beginning of the month, with an overall decrease of 4.4%.
| PVA |
Industrial chain: in April, liquefied gas rose first and then fell. The overall trend is still greatly affected by international crude oil. In the first half of the month, CP fell in the civil market of liquefied gas, but the decline was less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market, and crude oil closed up. In addition, the demand for downstream storage and replenishment was relatively positive, the market atmosphere was good, the factory shipped smoothly, the inventory was ok, and the price was continuously increased. On the 12th, driven by the sharp rise of propane in Shandong Province, the price of liquefied gas rose sharply, only 15.21% on the 3rd. However, the upward trend lacked substantial benefits, and then ushered in a rational decline. In the second half of the month, the civil market of liquefied gas fell mainly, propane fell sharply, the liquefied gas market returned to rationality, and the price fell in a step-by-step manner. International crude oil suffered another setback on the 14th, and continued to decline sharply on the 20th. The news weighed on the market mentality, while the downstream mentality was cautious and wait-and-see. The manufacturer’s shipment is blocked continuously, the inventory is increasing gradually, and the successive profits are used to stimulate the shipment. On the 23rd, under the favorable rebound of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market pushed up slightly, but on the 27th, the global crude oil inventory remained high, the market was still worried that the reduction of production was not enough to offset the decline of demand, the international oil price fell sharply, and liquefied gas followed the decline.
3、 Future forecast
According to the analysis by the Data Engineer of the business agency, since 2020, the domestic market demand for butanone has been in a low state. In February and March, the export orders of the butanone market are relatively large. Although the export volume has increased, it has not been able to drive the domestic butanone market. The main reason is still related to the demand of the domestic downstream market. In April, the export orders decreased, and the market fell into a low state again. It is expected to be out in the short term Export orders may decrease again. If domestic demand fails to recover in time, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to be weak in the near future.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |