On June 24, the cryolite commodity index was 68.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.79% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.52% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price trend of domestic cryolite market is temporarily stable. The average price of cryolite market in Henan Province was 5600 yuan / ton on the 24th, down 11.58% year on year. At present, the factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 4800-6000 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 5000-6800 yuan / ton. The factory starts normal operation, has sufficient inventory, and is mainly waiting for operation.

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite is temporarily stable. At present, the average price in the domestic market is 2755.56 yuan / ton. The supply of goods within the site is normal, and the sales situation is general. The enterprise reflects that the inquiry situation has increased in the near future, and the price or arrangement of fluorite in the later stage is upward. In the downstream aluminum industry, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has not fully recovered since the reduction of production in mid March, the spot supply of domestic aluminum ingots has been reduced, and the later aluminum industry continues to operate mainly in shock.

According to the cryolite product analyst of business association, cryolite enterprises are operating normally with sufficient inventory at present, but the downstream demand is relatively flat, and the manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate weakly and stably in the short term, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

On June 23, the market price of propylene oxide rose slightly. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises as of June 23 was 10100 yuan / ton, up 1% compared with yesterday, 13.06% compared with June 1 (8933.33 yuan / ton), and 8.99% compared with May 23.

Supply and demand: at present, the epoxy propane manufacturers have no pressure on delivery temporarily, and the attitude of price fixing is still there. The downstream is enthusiastic about rising. Before the festival, there is a small amount of replenishment demand, and the market climate is fair.

Raw materials: as of June 22, the market price of propylene in Shandong began to fall. According to the price of the business agency, the propylene market in Shandong increased by 250 yuan / ton in one week at the beginning of June, and there was a significant correction in the price in the middle of June, with a cumulative drop of 350 yuan / ton in the seventh day of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and picked up again. On June 19 last Friday, the price has risen 350-450 yuan / ton in a row. At the end of the week, the price remained stable. Today, the price dropped again by about 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market turnover is between 6780 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 6800 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, but the delivery situation is general.

Downstream: according to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 22, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in the mainstream region was around 11900 yuan / ton, up 6.57% compared with the price on June 1. As of June 22, the downstream soft foam polyether, under the cost pressure, passively follows up the raw material propylene oxide, and the downstream new order follows up generally.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, at present, the market price of raw material propylene starts to fall and the cost support is weakened, but the propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure for the time being. Some of the downstream products are in stock before the festival, and there is a certain support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will digest the increase and wait for operation.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of data from the business club, the market of PA66 in the third week of June fluctuated and adjusted. As of June 22, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 19050.00 yuan / ton, 1.33% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

Recently, the price of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 is weak, and the market lacks direction, continuing the weak trend of last month. At present, the domestic spot price of adipic acid is running steadily at a low level, and dealers’ quotations are up and down. According to the data of business agency, as of June 22, the general quotation range of adipic acid market is 6600-6900 yuan / ton. Upstream cost side crude oil performed better this week. OPEC and its allies have reached an agreement to extend the existing production reduction agreement by one month, and countries that failed to meet the previous production reduction standards will compensate for insufficient production reduction in the next few months. Brent was up $4.055, or 10.49%, last week from June 12, while WTI was up $3.32, or 9.09%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent fell 36.05% and WTI fell 34.46%, but the favorable crude oil market has always lagged behind the conduction of adipic acid. Direct raw material pure benzene is strongly supported by crude oil market, but the port inventory of pure benzene accumulated last week, the spot market support is weak, and the price of pure benzene has declined. In the near future, the operating rate of adipic acid is general, and the operating rate of enterprises is kept at about 80%. The supply of goods is generally sufficient, the downstream orders are not timely, and the actual delivery is poor. Businesses go with the market and the price is stable. It is expected that adipic acid will not improve in the near future.

The upstream adipic acid did not support the cost side of PA66 well. In the first half of June, the market of PA66 was warmer due to the decrease of spot stocks in the market. In recent years, the domestic spot supply of PA66 is still tight. In addition, the operating rate of domestic large factories is not high, and the operating rate of Shenma industry is about 80%. Only half of the units of Huafeng Group have been started, and the long-term oversupply of PA66 has been alleviated. At present, the intention of profit giving is weak, and the market inquiry atmosphere is warm. However, downstream factories are resistant to high price goods, and the delivery volume is difficult.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market remained stable in the third week of June. The lower spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is temporarily stable, which has no support for PA66 cost. The downstream has some conflicts with the high price goods, but the on-site spot quantity is reduced. In general, the background of the market supply-demand contradiction has been eased. The interest giving intention of the merchants is not strong, and the offer is firm. PA66 market is expected to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China this week slightly recovered from last Friday to the beginning of the week and then to the weekend. Last Friday (June 12) the sample enterprise price of the business agency was 5550.00 yuan / ton, Monday (June 15) the sample enterprise price of the business agency was 5383.33 yuan / ton, and this Friday (June 19) the sample enterprise price was 5483.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.20%. The price is 39.63% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, styrene market price fell after narrow finishing. On June 15, East China styrene closed at around 5400 yuan / ton, and on June 19, 5450-5500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton. The above price is the tank price of Zhangjiagang. June 15, South China styrene no offer, June 19, 5550-5600 yuan / ton, above factory delivery price.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell at the end of last week, and the trend of crude oil fluctuated this week. This week, the upstream pure benzene of styrene declined weakly. The mainstream price of pure benzene on Friday (June 19) was 3670.00 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, or 2.13% compared with 3750.00 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12). This week, the spot pure benzene was subject to the pressure of port delivery, and the crude oil was lower, the macro positive support of pure benzene was weakened, and the trading atmosphere of the spot market was weak.

In terms of ethylene, the mainstream price of ethylene on Friday (June 19) was 712.25 yuan / ton, up 31.5 yuan / ton, or 4.63%, compared with 680.75 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12). This week, the supply of ethylene market was tight, and Northeast Asian ethylene continued to rise slightly.

In terms of inventory, the oversupply situation has not changed in the short term, and the mainstream inventory is still high. The total inventory in East China this week was 379700 tons, up 4.46% from 363500 tons last week. Last week, part of the cargo was delayed to unload this week, resulting in a large amount of arriving cargo. It is expected that the inventory in East China reservoir area will still rise next week. In the short term, the storage capacity of the warehouse is tight, and the pressure of spot selling continues to increase due to the further increase of regional security inspection, epidemic prevention and storage freight. With the sharp rise of ethylene price in the week, the cash flow of domestic styrene plants further compressed, and some plants entered the stage of loss, and the plan of load reduction for parking was initially realized. The demand of colleagues’ downstream end is optimistic and the operating rate is expected to remain high next week.

On the downstream side, the overall operating rate of styrene downstream this week was good, and still maintained a considerable production and marketing profit. PS market, as of Friday (June 19), the main factory price of PS in East China was 8100 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton from 7900 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12), and the spot supply is still tight this week.

EPS market, as of Friday (June 19), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 8100.00 yuan / ton, down 87.5 yuan / ton, or 1.07% compared with 8187.50 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12). The supply of goods in EPS market is tight, some factories take orders carefully, traders are flexible to move goods, the demand side of the terminal has not changed significantly, the transaction is still not ideal, and the trading order is deadlocked.

In ABS market, as of Friday (June 19), the main ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 13300.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday. This week, the terminal demand of ABS is lower than that in the earlier stage, and there is a resistance to the high price supply. Traders cut prices to sell. Although the supply side is still tight, the overall demand is weak.

3、 Future outlook

Next week, the total inventory in East China is still expected to rise. Although some domestic styrene plants have plans to stop production and reduce the negative load, no specific plan has been given at present. The domestic supply of goods is still sufficient, and the downstream demand is stable, so the supply and demand are still booming. The trend of crude oil, ethylene and pure benzene has a great impact on the trend of styrene. It is expected that the trend of styrene will be dominated by weak shocks next week, and the market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

O-benzene price analysis:

Product name, region, manufacturer, price and time

O-xylene Sinopec East China Yangzi Petrochemical 4400 yuan / ton 2020-6-18

O-xylene Sinopec North China Qilu Petrochemical 4500 yuan / ton 2020-6-18

O-xylene PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-18

O-xylene Sinopec East China Yangzi Petrochemical 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-17

O-xylene Sinopec North China Qilu Petrochemical 4500 yuan / ton 2020-6-17

O-xylene PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-17

O-xylene Sinopec East China Yangzi Petrochemical 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-16

O-xylene Sinopec North China Qilu Petrochemical 4500 yuan / ton 2020-6-16

O-xylene PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-16

O-xylene Sinopec East China Yangzi Petrochemical 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-15

O-xylene Sinopec North China Qilu Petrochemical 4300 yuan / ton 2020-6-15

O-xylene PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 4100 yuan / ton 2020-6-15

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the prices of Sinopec’s contracts in neighboring benzene rose in shock this week, but Sinopec’s North China and East China quotations, which have been rising and falling together, have different reactions this week. As of June 18, the execution contract price of o-xylene Sinopec in East China was 4400.00 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that of last weekend’s 4300.00 yuan / ton; while the execution contract price of n-xylene in North China was 4500 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton higher over the same period. And the price in East China rose a little after two days in North China. Why does the market of o-benzene appear such phenomenon? Why is the price rise of o-benzene so “difficult”.

Cost factor

From the price trend of mixed xylene in June, it can be seen that since June, the price of mixed xylene has risen first and then declined. This week, the price of mixed xylene has been falling all the way, the price of raw material mixed xylene has been falling, the cost of o-benzene has been falling, the downward pressure of o-benzene has increased the upward momentum, and the price of o-benzene has been dragging down.

Downstream market trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in June that the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose. This week, the market of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose. The overall market of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, which is good for ortho benzene to some extent, but not enough for ortho benzene.

3、 Future forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of o-xylene of business association, thinks that the price of mixed xylene fell this week, which is bad for o-xylene market. Although the phthalic anhydride market has the momentum to rise, the adjustment of price fluctuation is insufficient for o-xylene support. The decline of the upstream and downstream market is the main reason why the price of neighboring benzene in East China is not rising. However, in the early stage, the industrial chain price has accumulated momentum, and the downstream plasticizer Market and phthalic anhydride market are optimistic, and the demand for ortho benzene is stable, which makes the price of ortho benzene in North China rise. On June 17, the market price of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer rose, which had a positive stimulus to the market of o-benzene. The quotation of o-benzene in East China rose on June 17. Generally speaking, ortho benzene market is still supported by the rising momentum, but the decline of raw material price makes the rise of ortho benzene insufficient. It is expected that the future market will be mainly stable and there will be some room for rise.