1、 Price trend
According to a large number of data from the business club, the market of PA66 in the third week of June fluctuated and adjusted. As of June 22, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 19050.00 yuan / ton, 1.33% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Analysis of influencing factors:
Recently, the price of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 is weak, and the market lacks direction, continuing the weak trend of last month. At present, the domestic spot price of adipic acid is running steadily at a low level, and dealers’ quotations are up and down. According to the data of business agency, as of June 22, the general quotation range of adipic acid market is 6600-6900 yuan / ton. Upstream cost side crude oil performed better this week. OPEC and its allies have reached an agreement to extend the existing production reduction agreement by one month, and countries that failed to meet the previous production reduction standards will compensate for insufficient production reduction in the next few months. Brent was up $4.055, or 10.49%, last week from June 12, while WTI was up $3.32, or 9.09%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent fell 36.05% and WTI fell 34.46%, but the favorable crude oil market has always lagged behind the conduction of adipic acid. Direct raw material pure benzene is strongly supported by crude oil market, but the port inventory of pure benzene accumulated last week, the spot market support is weak, and the price of pure benzene has declined. In the near future, the operating rate of adipic acid is general, and the operating rate of enterprises is kept at about 80%. The supply of goods is generally sufficient, the downstream orders are not timely, and the actual delivery is poor. Businesses go with the market and the price is stable. It is expected that adipic acid will not improve in the near future.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
The upstream adipic acid did not support the cost side of PA66 well. In the first half of June, the market of PA66 was warmer due to the decrease of spot stocks in the market. In recent years, the domestic spot supply of PA66 is still tight. In addition, the operating rate of domestic large factories is not high, and the operating rate of Shenma industry is about 80%. Only half of the units of Huafeng Group have been started, and the long-term oversupply of PA66 has been alleviated. At present, the intention of profit giving is weak, and the market inquiry atmosphere is warm. However, downstream factories are resistant to high price goods, and the delivery volume is difficult.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market remained stable in the third week of June. The lower spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is temporarily stable, which has no support for PA66 cost. The downstream has some conflicts with the high price goods, but the on-site spot quantity is reduced. In general, the background of the market supply-demand contradiction has been eased. The interest giving intention of the merchants is not strong, and the offer is firm. PA66 market is expected to rise in the short term.
| PVA |