1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China this week slightly recovered from last Friday to the beginning of the week and then to the weekend. Last Friday (June 12) the sample enterprise price of the business agency was 5550.00 yuan / ton, Monday (June 15) the sample enterprise price of the business agency was 5383.33 yuan / ton, and this Friday (June 19) the sample enterprise price was 5483.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.20%. The price is 39.63% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
This week, styrene market price fell after narrow finishing. On June 15, East China styrene closed at around 5400 yuan / ton, and on June 19, 5450-5500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton. The above price is the tank price of Zhangjiagang. June 15, South China styrene no offer, June 19, 5550-5600 yuan / ton, above factory delivery price.
|PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)|
In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell at the end of last week, and the trend of crude oil fluctuated this week. This week, the upstream pure benzene of styrene declined weakly. The mainstream price of pure benzene on Friday (June 19) was 3670.00 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, or 2.13% compared with 3750.00 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12). This week, the spot pure benzene was subject to the pressure of port delivery, and the crude oil was lower, the macro positive support of pure benzene was weakened, and the trading atmosphere of the spot market was weak.
In terms of ethylene, the mainstream price of ethylene on Friday (June 19) was 712.25 yuan / ton, up 31.5 yuan / ton, or 4.63%, compared with 680.75 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12). This week, the supply of ethylene market was tight, and Northeast Asian ethylene continued to rise slightly.
In terms of inventory, the oversupply situation has not changed in the short term, and the mainstream inventory is still high. The total inventory in East China this week was 379700 tons, up 4.46% from 363500 tons last week. Last week, part of the cargo was delayed to unload this week, resulting in a large amount of arriving cargo. It is expected that the inventory in East China reservoir area will still rise next week. In the short term, the storage capacity of the warehouse is tight, and the pressure of spot selling continues to increase due to the further increase of regional security inspection, epidemic prevention and storage freight. With the sharp rise of ethylene price in the week, the cash flow of domestic styrene plants further compressed, and some plants entered the stage of loss, and the plan of load reduction for parking was initially realized. The demand of colleagues’ downstream end is optimistic and the operating rate is expected to remain high next week.
On the downstream side, the overall operating rate of styrene downstream this week was good, and still maintained a considerable production and marketing profit. PS market, as of Friday (June 19), the main factory price of PS in East China was 8100 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton from 7900 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12), and the spot supply is still tight this week.
EPS market, as of Friday (June 19), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 8100.00 yuan / ton, down 87.5 yuan / ton, or 1.07% compared with 8187.50 yuan / ton on Friday (June 12). The supply of goods in EPS market is tight, some factories take orders carefully, traders are flexible to move goods, the demand side of the terminal has not changed significantly, the transaction is still not ideal, and the trading order is deadlocked.
In ABS market, as of Friday (June 19), the main ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 13300.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday. This week, the terminal demand of ABS is lower than that in the earlier stage, and there is a resistance to the high price supply. Traders cut prices to sell. Although the supply side is still tight, the overall demand is weak.
3、 Future outlook
Next week, the total inventory in East China is still expected to rise. Although some domestic styrene plants have plans to stop production and reduce the negative load, no specific plan has been given at present. The domestic supply of goods is still sufficient, and the downstream demand is stable, so the supply and demand are still booming. The trend of crude oil, ethylene and pure benzene has a great impact on the trend of styrene. It is expected that the trend of styrene will be dominated by weak shocks next week, and the market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.