According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic polysilicon market has warmed up this week. As of August 12, the polysilicon price has increased by 2.58%, and the current price range is 100000-125000 yuan / ton.

This week, the units of most polysilicon manufacturers operated stably. The orders of large silicon material manufacturers in August were generally signed, and most began to sign orders in September. At present, the routine maintenance of two sets of units in Xinjiang and Jiangsu has affected part of the output. The output of silicon material is slightly lower than that of the previous month, and the supply is slightly tight, which is the main factor supporting the rise of silicon material price.

In terms of downstream silicon wafers, the price of central silicon wafers increased comprehensively this week, significantly higher than the quotation announced on July 17. The quotation of G1 silicon wafers was 4.62 yuan, up 0.26 yuan; The quotation of M6 silicon wafer was 4.98 yuan, up 0.44 yuan; The quotation of G12 silicon wafer was 7.97 yuan, up 0.44 yuan. This also brings greater price expectations for Longji. The rise of silicon wafer has largely shared the pressure on the pushing up cost of silicon material.

In terms of terminal batteries and components, affected by the rise in raw material prices, it also pushed up the prices of batteries and components. On the one hand, the expectation of price rise stimulated some demand; On the other hand, the export performance picked up, especially in India. Driven by the centralized installation demand, overseas orders increased. Upstream and downstream linkage, and prices rose steadily. The price of polycrystalline battery and single crystal M6 battery increased significantly.

According to the business society, the recent fundamentals of silicon material are good, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand is significantly better than that of the previous month, especially the steady increase of overseas demand and the increase of orders have a significant boost to the price. However, with the resumption of the plant in the maintenance period in the latter ten days, the silicon material supply will increase and the estimated price will stabilize.

On August 10, the international oil price rebounded sharply, and WTI crude oil rose nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was reported as $68.29/barrel, up $1.81 or 2.70%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was reported as $70.63/barrel, up $1.59 or 2.30%. American Petroleum Institute (API) data show that U.S. gasoline and crude oil inventories have decreased, and there are signs that the improvement of U.S. employment has boosted fuel consumption. However, at present, demand growth is still restricted by delta virus, and the driving force of oil price rise is still constrained.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of August 10, the comprehensive price of PC market was 25125.00 yuan / ton. The price of PC was mainly stable in the near future. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable and flat, and increased by 7.14% compared with the same period last month. The manufacturer shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and maintained a weak and stable operation in the short term.

In July, the overall growth rate of PC was 5.64%, from 23783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 25125.00 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of July, the negotiation center operated at a high level, the price continued to rise, the negotiation atmosphere was positive, and the manufacturer shipped smoothly. In the second ten days, the price of PC was mainly stable, maintained at 25125.00 yuan / ton.

In early July, the price of upstream raw material bisphenol a rose, the PC cost support was strong, and the PC trend followed closely with the subsequent price rise. In late July, the trend of raw material bisphenol A went down, the transaction atmosphere was cold, the purchase intention was not strong, the PC mentality was hit, the operation was weak, and the price was stable. As of August 10, the PC market remained stable. Mainly stable.

On August 9, the bisphenol a commodity index was 255.44, down 0.19 points from yesterday, down 9.80% from the highest point of 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 254.33% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2020-03-01 to now)

According to the PC analysts of business society, the PC market is expected to be stable in the short term, with a narrow range of shocks（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

According to the monitoring data of business society, since June, the traditional off-season of hydrogen peroxide has come, and the market has been falling continuously until August. It has fallen deeply for more than two months, with a decline of nearly 20%. On August 4, the price fell to the first line of 800 yuan / ton. The hydrogen peroxide market rose this week. As of August 9, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 813 yuan / ton, up 0.83% from the price on the 4th.

According to the weekly fluctuation chart of hydrogen peroxide in business society from May 17 to August 8, 2021, hydrogen peroxide has begun to show a downward trend since mid May. Near the end of the month, due to the weakening of terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide began to decline sharply, falling for two consecutive weeks, with a decrease of more than 4%. Since June, hydrogen peroxide has opened the downward channel, falling for three consecutive weeks, with an overall decline of more than 7.5%. In early July, the decline of hydrogen peroxide Market slowed down, falling for two weeks in the middle and late ten days, and the market rose near the end of the month. Due to the large decline in the early stage, hydrogen peroxide fell sharply as a whole. Throughout July, hydrogen peroxide fell by more than 5.6%. By August, the first week was still mainly down, down 2.81%. In the second week, hydrogen peroxide has ushered in an inflection point. On August 9, hydrogen peroxide rose by 0.83% in a single day.

On August 9, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers offered as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 780 yuan / ton, an increase of 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide for Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer is 800 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that in early August; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 860 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.

The terminal demand has improved, and the inflection point of hydrogen peroxide has arrived

Since June, the performance of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry and caprolactam has been poor. With the advent of the off-season of traditional consumption, the price of hydrogen peroxide began to fall endlessly, falling deeply for more than two months, down nearly 20%. Although some hydrogen peroxide enterprises shut down for maintenance to limit the falling space of hydrogen peroxide, due to weak demand, after a short rise in the market, they continued to decline weakly, and were unable to recover.

Since the end of July, the terminal caprolactam market has risen, the demand has increased, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen one after another, the performance is not obvious, and it has been beaten back to its original shape after the rise. In August, the first week still maintained a downward trend. At the beginning of this week, the market of terminal paper industry was stable, the caprolactam market was high, the procurement demand recovered, the order volume of hydrogen peroxide increased, the manufacturer’s quotation began to rise, and hydrogen peroxide has reached the inflection point.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that hydrogen peroxide has fallen deeply for more than two months, the traditional peak season is approaching, the terminal rigid demand is increasing, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide will usher in a rising market.

This week’s price analysis

On August 6, the mainstream quotation of metal silicon was 16700 yuan / ton; Compared with last Friday, it increased by about 1500 yuan / ton, up 10.11% on a weekly basis and 16.24% on a year-on-year basis.

Regional 441# silicon prices on June 6 are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 16800-17000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 16800-17000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 16500-16700 yuan / ton, with an average of 16600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 16300-16400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16350 yuan / ton; Fujian #441 metal trading range is 15900-16000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15950 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 17400-17600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17500 yuan / ton.

On August 5, the metal silicon commodity index was 114.10, up 3.72 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 65.92% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Market conditions this week

From the market point of view, the price jumped and there was great pressure on downstream procurement. Since the continuous price rise of metal silicon in late July, merchants were bullish early this week and were reluctant to sell and store goods. However, downstream customers had to choose to deal in order to ensure normal production, so the overall trading volume decreased. In addition, the epidemic broke out in Jiangsu and other domestic places one after another. Some automobile transportation in East China refused to accept orders, which made downstream transportation difficult and increased transportation costs.

From the perspective of supply, the output increases, but it is difficult to accumulate the reservoir. In July, the industrial silicon output was 272000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 64.4%. Silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan increased production seasonally during the wet season, but the increase was lower than expected. Due to frequent power limiting accidents in Yunnan and the impact of epidemic situation, the production was unstable. In addition, large factories in Xinjiang rectified and stopped production due to safety accidents. The increase in production during the wet season was unexpected to downstream customers, and the uncertainty at the supply side stimulated the fluctuation of downstream purchasing sentiment.

Future forecast

The time for the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is uncertain. The increase in production during the period of abundant water and electricity in Yunnan is less than expected, the inventory cannot be accumulated, the downstream just needs to be purchased and the transportation is blocked due to the impact of the epidemic. Business analysts believe that metal silicon may rise in a narrow range in the short term.