According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continued to rise, the price of domestic PR nd rare earth continued to rise, the market price of terbium rose to a 10-year high, the price of dysprosium rose to a 5-year high, and the price of domestic rare earth market rose step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index was 470 points on January 27, which was 1000 points higher than the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06) ）Down 53.00%, up 73.43% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices continue to rise, and the rare earth market has frequent changes recently, and the market prices continue to rise. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal continue to rise. As of January 28, the domestic price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth is 455500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 567500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium oxide is 570500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium metal is 697500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide The price of praseodymium is 630000 yuan / ton, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

Recently, the demand for permanent magnets has increased significantly. The main rare earth materials of high-performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, China’s auto sales will reach 25.311 million in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, while the dysprosium series market price has continued to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continued to rise, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.28 million yuan / ton as of the 28th; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.26 million yuan / ton, and the domestic price of terbium series rose sharply, with the domestic price of Terbium oxide reaching 8.825 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium reaching 11.025 million yuan / ton on the 28th, and the price of terbium series rose to the highest level in 10 years. Domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and prices of medium and heavy rare earth. In addition, Myanmar’s customs closure still has a tight impact on domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth. During the “14th five year plan”, domestic rare earth supply may still be limited by the total mining quota It is expected that the supply side high-pressure policies such as cracking down on black and environmental protection will continue, and the increase of overseas supply will be relatively limited in the next three to five years. It is expected that the global supply of rare earth, especially the supply of heavy rare earth, will continue to shrink, the supply and demand will be unbalanced, and the market price of heavy rare earth will continue to rise.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the rare earth industry management and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the recovery of advanced manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth in demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to nickel price monitoring of business society, nickel price fell slightly on the 27th, with spot nickel price of 135950 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from 138433.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 6.1% from the beginning of the year, and up 23.63% from the same period last year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 134950 yuan. After the opening, the price fell under pressure and closed at 133710 yuan, down 0.22%. LME3 closed at US $18080, down 0.06%.

As the epidemic raged, the demand was worried, and the nickel price fell overnight. London Metal Exchange (LME) 26 Lun nickel inventory reported 248688 metric tons, 156 metric tons less than the previous day’s inventory. Domestic nickel mines on the supply side are still tight, and the consumption of nickel sulfate is improved due to the sharp increase in the consumption growth of new energy vehicles, but the real battery consumption still needs some time. The construction of ferronickel in Indonesia is on schedule, and there will be an increase in supply in the future. Near the Spring Festival, the maintenance of stainless steel plants is a drag on nickel consumption, and the demand for goods preparation and collection in the downstream is gradually weakening before the festival, so the nickel market may be limited in further upward space.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, affected by the tight supply of acetic acid market, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of January 26, Shandong Province was 4800-4900 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Province 5100-5200 yuan / ton, Zhejiang Province 5200-5300 yuan / ton, Henan Province 4800-4900 yuan / ton, Hebei Province 4700-4800 yuan / ton, Northwest China 4350 yuan / ton, South China 4900-5000 yuan / ton Around, up 7.17% over the same period last week.

At present, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole is high and strong, and the spot supply exceeds the demand. The downstream market has a positive performance in preparing goods before the festival, and the trade is active. Due to the shutdown and overhaul of some devices in North China, the market supply is in short supply. How long does the manufacturer make delivery, and it is difficult to make up the supply side gap in a short time.

In recent years, the domestic methanol market is mainly stable and consolidated. Affected by the higher freight rate and the increased cost of traders, the domestic methanol spot market is relatively strong, while the downstream market has entered the holiday season one after another, and the demand side support is limited. At present, Shandong is about 2335 yuan / ton. In the downstream, acetate and other markets are active, and some enterprises still start work during the Spring Festival, so the demand side is still positive for acetic acid.

Acetic acid analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic acetic acid market is currently in a strong operation, and the favorable demand side is expected to continue to the Spring Festival holiday. In addition to the increase in logistics and transportation costs, it is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. The price of xylene was 4110 yuan / ton on January 17 and 4160 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 24), up 50 yuan / ton or 1.22% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene increased by 150-200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, xylene market was very strong, the focus of negotiation was pushed up, and the price was pushed up and down near the weekend. In terms of external market, as of January 22, the price of imported xylene from South Korea was 577.5 US dollars / ton, down 5.5 US dollars / ton or 0.94% compared with January 15; the price of imported xylene from East China was 592.5 US dollars / ton, up 1.5 US dollars / ton or 0.25% compared with January 15. This week, the xylene inventory of East China port was about 78000 tons, down 2700 tons compared with last week.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news guidance is weak, and the market hopes that the new US fiscal stimulus plan will be implemented. Compared with January 15, Brent rose by $0.705/barrel, or 1.29%; WTI fell by $0.15/barrel, or 0.29%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices rose this week compared with last week, Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton compared with last week, up 10.64%, down 24.64% year on year. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price remained high, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported. The higher external price brought some positive support to the domestic market.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fell this week, reaching 3841.11 yuan / ton on January 24, down 1.51% from last week and 21.38% from a year earlier. As of January 22, PTA industry operating rate was 91.24%.

In terms of ox market, ox prices remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 4700 yuan / ton. Sinopec’s o-benzene price was temporarily stable, the external quotation fell, the supply of o-benzene was stable, and the downstream market fell as a whole, and the demand was normal. O-benzene transaction weakened, o-benzene market weak temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health incident and the rain and snow weather in the north, some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down, and xylene market demand is weak. However, xylene market supply is expected to be tight, and prices are expected to remain firm next week. We will continue to pay attention to downstream procurement and the impact of crude oil and external market on xylene prices.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, the market of potassium sulphate in Hebei Province is stable this week. Mannheim potassium sulphate factory: 50% powder 2600 yuan / ton or so; 50% granules and 52% water-soluble powder 2725 yuan / ton or so, continuing last week’s price. The production of SDIC Luo potassium is normal, and the arrival price of 52% powder is about 2740 yuan / ton; the arrival price of 50% powder of Qinghai water salt system is about 2575 yuan / ton. The domestic potassium sulfate Market has been running stably, and there is no inventory pressure on the whole. The recent shipment situation in the north is subject to great resistance, and the logistics transportation is not smooth, which may further affect the production of plant devices.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency potassium sulfate analysts believe that: potassium sulfate Market to maintain stable operation, the market is expected to be stable in the short term.