This week’s price analysis
On August 6, the mainstream quotation of metal silicon was 16700 yuan / ton; Compared with last Friday, it increased by about 1500 yuan / ton, up 10.11% on a weekly basis and 16.24% on a year-on-year basis.
Regional 441# silicon prices on June 6 are as follows:
The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 16800-17000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 16800-17000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 16500-16700 yuan / ton, with an average of 16600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 16300-16400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16350 yuan / ton; Fujian #441 metal trading range is 15900-16000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15950 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 17400-17600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17500 yuan / ton.
On August 5, the metal silicon commodity index was 114.10, up 3.72 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 65.92% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Market conditions this week
From the market point of view, the price jumped and there was great pressure on downstream procurement. Since the continuous price rise of metal silicon in late July, merchants were bullish early this week and were reluctant to sell and store goods. However, downstream customers had to choose to deal in order to ensure normal production, so the overall trading volume decreased. In addition, the epidemic broke out in Jiangsu and other domestic places one after another. Some automobile transportation in East China refused to accept orders, which made downstream transportation difficult and increased transportation costs.
From the perspective of supply, the output increases, but it is difficult to accumulate the reservoir. In July, the industrial silicon output was 272000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 64.4%. Silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan increased production seasonally during the wet season, but the increase was lower than expected. Due to frequent power limiting accidents in Yunnan and the impact of epidemic situation, the production was unstable. In addition, large factories in Xinjiang rectified and stopped production due to safety accidents. The increase in production during the wet season was unexpected to downstream customers, and the uncertainty at the supply side stimulated the fluctuation of downstream purchasing sentiment.
Future forecast
The time for the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is uncertain. The increase in production during the period of abundant water and electricity in Yunnan is less than expected, the inventory cannot be accumulated, the downstream just needs to be purchased and the transportation is blocked due to the impact of the epidemic. Business analysts believe that metal silicon may rise in a narrow range in the short term.
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