1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners decreased slightly this week. On October 17, the average price of Shandong market was 3263.75 yuan / ton, which was 1.36% lower than that of 3308.75 yuan / ton on October 11.

On October 17, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 253.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.18% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 279.50% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery shipped well, the supply of petroleum coke increased, the early high price fell, the downstream demand was good, the refinery actively shipped to inventory, and the local petroleum coke price decreased slightly.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen since October. Affected by the rise of European natural gas and the production restriction of oil producing countries, crude oil also shows a shortage of supply. The international oil price has exceeded the $80 mark during the “National Day” and continued to rise after the festival. On October 4, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reached an agreement at the ministerial video conference to maintain the original production policy. The expectation of supply tightening heated up the market panic and the high oil price. What is more noteworthy is that there is an extreme shortage of natural gas in Europe and the United States, and power plants may gradually turn to oil power generation, which will further lead to the shortage of crude oil. Oil prices have been strongly supported in the short term.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. As of October 17, the price was 24110.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 41st week of 2021 (10.11-10.15), there are 13 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (17.75%), power coal (13.81%) and fuel oil (7.09%). There are two commodities with month on month decline, and the products with the first two declines are petroleum coke (- 1.36%) and coking coal (- 0.44%). The average rise and fall this week was 4.24%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that: Recently, the supply of petroleum coke in refineries has increased, the high price in the early stage has dropped, the downstream demand is good, refineries actively ship and destock, the downstream electrolytic aluminum price has increased, the calcined coke price is basically stable, and the downstream operation is cautious. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from October 8 to 15, the average spot price of domestic asphalt increased from 3536 yuan / ton to 3648 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 3.17%, 5.28% month on month and 60.88% year-on-year.

Affected by the typhoon “compass”, the construction of roads in the South was blocked, affecting the domestic asphalt demand. Domestic asphalt prices rose first and then fell. Sinopec refinery prices rose by 20-80 yuan / ton. However, with the outflow of current low-cost goods in some regions, the market price fell slightly. In the short term, crude oil remains high and volatile, and the market may maintain stability under the support of cost.

In the short term, on the demand side, with the cold weather in the north, the road demand will gradually weaken; In the southern market, considering the restriction of production and electricity and the high level of social library, it may have a negative impact on the price. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that considering that international crude oil remains high, asphalt prices are mainly strong.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 14): 14475 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the price of PVC futures fell sharply on October 14, and the closing price of 2201, the main contract, fell by 7.24%, while the willingness to follow the decline in the spot market was not strong, the price fell slightly by 0.34%, and the basis increased. At present, the price of raw materials is temporarily stable, the supply has improved slightly, and there is a decline expectation. In addition, with the recent strong rise of PVC, there is strong resistance in the downstream product industry, the transaction atmosphere is poor, the mentality of the industry is negative, and the wait-and-see mood is good.

Forecast: PVC market price is expected to fall in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of viscose staple fiber has increased significantly recently. As of October 13, 2021, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 14080 yuan / ton, an increase of 1840 yuan / ton, or 15%.

After the festival, due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the decrease in the operating rate, the process of removing viscose staple fiber from the warehouse was fast, the spot quantity was small, the price of viscose staple fiber rose sharply, and some manufacturers continued to close their plates, and the wait-and-see mood was still in. Under the situation of double reduction of supply and demand, the mentality of “buy up but not buy down” may ferment in all links or raise prices. The quotation of imported pulp has decreased in the past two days, the domestic dissolved pulp is more likely to fall, and the viscose cost may be reduced. After the cotton yarn price of downstream people rose sharply last week, it is mainly finishing this week, and the market sentiment may show a gentle trend.

Business analysts expect viscose staple fiber to rise in a limited space in the short term and will focus on finishing.

Trade name: lithium hydroxide

Latest price (October 12): 166333.33 yuan / ton

On October 12, the market of industrial lithium hydroxide was stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, up 14.98% compared with September 12, and up 84.81% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw materials is running at a high level, the cost side has a certain support, the demand side of industrial lithium hydroxide is relatively stable, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of industrial lithium hydroxide may be dominated by high-level operation.