The LPG market in Shandong began to decline continuously in mid March. After entering this week (3.21-3.25), it was not easy to look forward to the rising market, but it was blocked again. The rebound did not continue. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3800.00 yuan / ton on March 21 and 3843.33 yuan / ton on March 25, with an increase of 1.14% this week and 3.41% compared with March 1.

As of March 25, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream quotation

Air transportation in North China: 3920-3720 tons

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China: RMB 3810-3950 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 4100-4200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: RMB 3750-3800 / T

At the beginning of the week, the rise of international crude oil brought some support to the market. Under the mentality of buying up downstream, the LPG civil market entered the market actively, the market transaction atmosphere was good, and the manufacturer’s quotation continued to push up. However, the international crude oil plummeted on March 24, which affected the market mentality. The trading atmosphere of the market was light again. After replenishment, the downstream companies withdrew from the market one after another, with a cautious mentality. Manufacturers shipping blocked, part of the inventory there is a certain pressure, more profit priority shipping, prices have declined. At present, the market supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the current weather temperature is gradually increasing, and the demand is decreasing. In the international market, near the end of the month, Saudi Aramco’s CP price is about to come out, but the CP is expected to fall in April, bringing some bad news to the market.

In the past seven days, the LPG futures market has been volatile and low, bringing Limited benefits to the spot market. On March 25, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2105 was 2770, the highest price was 3888, the lowest price was 3760, the closing price was 3867, the former settlement price was 3827, the settlement price was 3842, up 40, or 1.05%, the trading volume was 74076, the position was 30628, and the daily increase was – 589. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Overall, the market demand has improved this week, and the overall focus of Shandong civil gas market has moved up. However, the international crude oil market fluctuates frequently and has a large range, which brings limited benefits to the LPG market. Moreover, the expected decline of CP price in April brings bad news to the market. After the completion of downstream replenishment, the market withdraws from the market to wait and see, and obviously lacks confidence in the future market. As the weather continues to heat up, market demand is expected to decline. At present, due to many negative factors in the market, Shandong civil gas market is expected to be easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market of caprolactam has been revised back in the near future, and individual spot prices have been greatly reduced. As of March 26, the average price of caprolactam sample enterprises was 13333.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 43.88%.

quotations analysis

In the first half of the month, the price of caprolactam was at a high level in China, and the market began to recover in the middle of March. Caprolactam fell steadily this week, and the market was weak as a whole. On the upstream side, the far end cost crude oil fell due to the influence of the US dollar index, but the Suez Canal congestion crisis continued, and the current crude oil market was in a wide range of shocks. Due to the increase of production demand in the downstream of direct upstream pure benzene in the near future, the on-site debarking operation can be carried out. However, affected by the weakening of crude oil, the market has resistance and weak consolidation. The demand for caprolactam decreased and the supply of caprolactam shifted from tight to abundant.

Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe: caprolactam upstream benzene market weak consolidation, caprolactam cost side support general. On the supply side, the domestic caprolactam supply increased, and the supply side showed pressure. The downstream PA6 products were reduced, and the kinetic energy of the demand side was weakened. At present, the domestic caprolactam bad lead market, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to adjust downward.

On March 25, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 1 commodity that rose, 0 commodity that fell, and 6 commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising products include chloroform; stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride, cryolite, R22 and R134a.

On March 25, the price of fluorite chemical raw material market rose, and the price of fluorite was 2750 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite remained stable. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started generally, some mines and flotation plants stopped, and the fluorite supply in the plant was normal. However, the downstream market was mainly stable, and the price of fluorite was affected and the decline was limited. As of the 25th, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and stable in the future.

In the near future, the price trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is temporarily stable, and the operating rate remains low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the normal supply on the site, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. As of the 25th, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid Market is 10622.22 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable Fluoric acid spot supply is normal. Recently, the market of goods on the floor is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the floor reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be temporarily stable.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. With the purchase on demand in the downstream market, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province have a high starting point, sufficient spot supply in the market, general shipment and normal sales. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of chloroform is about 3650-3750 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform remains high, and the cost support is general. In the near future, the downstream gradually starts to stock up, the demand side has risen, and the market center slightly rises. As the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable, the price of some affected refrigerants rises. Refrigerant R134a price trend has an upward trend, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was temporarily stable.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, melamine market rose first and then stabilized. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of March 24, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 8116.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 1.04% compared with last Friday (March 19), increased by 9.68% compared with February 24, and increased by 49.39% compared with the same period last year. In terms of raw materials, the price of upstream urea has risen recently. On the supply side, the operating rate of melamine increased. On the demand side, exports performed well, domestic demand was flat, the trading atmosphere in some markets improved, the prices of some enterprises rose, and the overall market atmosphere was acceptable.

Upstream urea, March 24, Shandong urea market rose. On the demand side: most of the agricultural demand is used as soon as it is purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants rises slightly, and the small orders follow up, and most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. India’s RCF import bid was opened, with a total bid volume of 1.926 million tons, and the bid price was not announced. Based on the rising demand of many local industries, the positive impact of Indian bidding, the improvement of domestic market mentality, and the willingness of some manufacturers to support prices.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea has risen slightly recently, the cost support has been strengthened slightly, the overall operating rate of melamine is high, the market trading is orderly, and the wait-and-see mentality is dominant. It is expected that the domestic melamine market may be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, since March, the high price of o-benzene has not been supported, the market of o-benzene has been falling continuously, the price of o-benzene has dived twice, and the price of o-benzene has dropped by 800 yuan / ton in March. As of March 23, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5700.00 yuan / ton, down 12.31% from 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (March 1).

Downstream market of industrial chain

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, we can see that the price of phthalic anhydride continued to fall in March, domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started to maintain a low level, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor was about 60%, the spot supply on the floor was normal, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market was general, and the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fall. Downstream market fell, o-benzene rising power weakened, downward pressure increased.

It can be seen from the DOP price trend chart that in March, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, the operating rate of domestic DOP manufacturers rose, the spot supply increased, the PVC price rose slightly, and the DOP demand recovered, but the raw material prices plummeted, DOP supply increased, DOP supply exceeded demand, and DOP prices fell. Downstream market fell, o-benzene rising power weakened, downward pressure increased.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of crude oil and mixed xylene that the price of WTI crude oil fluctuated and adjusted in March. From March 15 to 19, the oil price fell for five consecutive trading days, and the oil price fell continuously. The bad news of the market was released, but the process of market recovery remained unchanged. In the long run, the economic recovery is still good for the oil price. Affected by the crude oil market, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and adjusted in March. As of March 23, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and rose slightly, but it was depressed by multiple bad news, the support of mixed xylene weakened, and the risk of mixed xylene falling was greater. On the whole, the cost of o-benzene is volatile and stable, the future rising power is limited, the risk of decline still exists, and the support of o-benzene cost is insufficient.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business society, believes that affected by the recent weak crude oil market, the mixed xylene market is volatile and weak, the o-xylene cost is volatile and adjusted, and the o-xylene cost support is weakened; for the downstream, the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer continues to fall sharply, the demand for o-xylene is just the main, and the pressure of o-xylene decline is relatively large. However, with the slow recovery of the operating rate of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer enterprises, the o-xylene market is declining Demand is rising, and there is still some support for the rise of o-benzene in the future. Generally speaking, the pressure of o-benzene’s decline in the future is greater. However, with the slow rise of the operating rate of downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, the space for o-benzene’s decline is limited. It is expected that the o-benzene market will fluctuate slightly in the future.