In August, the domestic phenol market first declined and then rose. In September, the phenol market continued to rise in a narrow range last month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9225 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9350 yuan / ton on September 7, with a small increase, but the market is still rising continuously, with an increase of 1.4%, Up to now, the offers of major mainstream markets are as follows: the offer in East China is 9350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 9300-9350 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 9400-9450 yuan / ton.

Looking at the trend chart of phenol index in the whole year, it can be seen that phenol is currently in a reasonable price range, and phenol has been adjusting in the range since the second quarter. In September, domestic phenol factories raised their offer by about 100 yuan / ton, which increased the confidence of the market. Although the port stock increased, the output of overseas devices decreased in September and the domestic supply is expected to increase. Considering that some export cargo holders are not in a hurry to ship, there is no pressure on the short-term supply side, and most low prices do not raise the market quotation by a narrow margin, in terms of devices, In September, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units changed little, ranging from 85% to 90%. In September, Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit had a shutdown maintenance plan.

Downstream bisphenol A continues to operate at a high level. Although it has been reduced by a narrow range recently, the overall negotiation is still 27900-28100 yuan / ton. Bisphenol A is mostly Petrochemical supporting devices, which has little impact on the phenol Market, phenolic resin and other downstream changes, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of the business community, the short-term replenishment volume of ships is small, and there are export expectations. The export plan is increased when the original supply expectation is reduced. The supply of domestic cargo carriers is not pressure, and the cargo carriers are still bullish on the market. The business community expects that the phenol market is still expected to be good in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of September 5, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4625.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.27% from 4612.50 yuan / ton on August 30.

On September 5, the fuel oil commodity index was 93.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.19% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 103.28% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business agency, as of September 5, the price of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4650 yuan / ton and 4750 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4600 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 4700 yuan / ton.

The rise of international crude oil was mainly due to the expected warming of global economic recovery and favorable U.S. economic data. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its oil demand forecast for next year, resulting in a strong increase in oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of September 1, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 483000 barrels to a more than six-month low of 20.7 million barrels.

Future forecast: the rise of international crude oil, the rise of domestic raw material prices and the limited supply of raw materials have boosted the ship fuel wholesale market, the downstream demand has increased, the market is just in demand, the price has increased slightly, and the overall trading is light. Waiting for a new round of raw material volume price guidance. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may rise steadily in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8316.67 yuan / ton on August 29 and 8250.00 yuan / ton on September 3, with a decline of 0.80% during the week and an increase of 7.14% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11350.00 yuan / ton on August 29 and 11337.50 yuan / ton on September 3, with a decline of 0.11% during the week and an increase of 9.67% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8750.00 yuan / ton on August 29 and 8750.00 yuan / ton on September 3. The price was stable during the week, up 1.74% compared with the same period last year.

The overall trend of the three PE spot varieties this week was weak. HPDE in East China operated smoothly during the week, LLDPE prices decreased by a narrow margin, LDPE prices fell first and then rose, but the fluctuation range of the spot market was limited. Most Petrochemical ex factory prices fell this week, with weak cost support, ranging from 50-200 yuan / ton. The downstream maintains replenishment on demand, the market trading atmosphere is depressed, the merchant mentality is poor, the negotiation mode is continued, and the market quotation rises and falls. The high voltage is affected by the shutdown and maintenance of Shenhua Yulin, the market supply is limited, and the price has increased.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend recently. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 3rd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1006-1016 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $986-996 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 3rd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1212-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1136-1144 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and rose. As of the 3rd, the price was US $1026-1044 / T. recently, the overall external ethylene market showed an upward trend, and the recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe was not large. Ethylene rose periodically in Asia. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market is general recently, the market trading atmosphere is OK, and the ethylene market rises slightly.

Liansu futures fell first and then rose this week, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On September 3, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8280, the highest price was 8390, the lowest price was 8280, the closing price was 8375, the former settlement price was 8160, the settlement price was 8340, up 215, or 2.63%, the trading volume was 424181, the position was 311256, and the daily position was increased by 22516（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of current market supply, there is expected to increase in the later stage. In terms of demand, the downstream market entry is general, the terminal takes goods on demand, and the merchant mentality is poor. However, the trend of the futures market is rising, and the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase in the later stage. In the future, it is expected that the PE spot market will fluctuate upward.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the spot copper price fell slightly on September 2, and the current quotation is 69466.67 yuan / ton, down 0.67% from the previous trading day. Small Non-agricultural enterprises in the United States were less than expected, and the metal fell overnight. Chile’s mining industry has passed the mining tax bill, which will significantly increase the effective tax rate and affect mining investment. The third batch of domestic dumping and storage will arrive at the plant as soon as next week, which is lower than the market price, which is conducive to reducing the cost of downstream enterprises. The reduction in output caused by power restriction can be further compensated, the market supply pressure is relieved, and the copper price drops slightly.

Forecast: the copper price fell slightly due to the impact of throwing reserves and macro bad. In the traditional peak season in September, the demand is expected to be better, and the short-term high shock trend of the pre price copper price is mainly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14550 yuan / ton on August 1 and 14475 yuan / ton on August 31. The price of caprolactam fell 0.52% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the price of caprolactam fell first and then rose. The trend of caprolactam was downward in the first half of August. The price of raw material pure benzene fell and the cost support was weak. The supply of caprolactam increased, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand, with general demand. The price of caprolactam rebounded and rose in the second half of August. The supply of caprolactam enterprises decreased due to plant maintenance. The raw material pure benzene rose and the cost support was good. The enthusiasm of downstream polymerization plants is not high, and the demand is acceptable. As of August 31, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15200 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14700 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14250 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

In the first ten days of August, due to the typhoon weather and epidemic situation, the shipment of enterprises was limited, the inventory pressure increased, and the price remained in a narrow range after a sharp decline. The high price of pure benzene in the period before demand led to increased resistance in the downstream, decreased operating rate of some enterprises and decreased demand for pure benzene. In late August, crude oil rebounded sharply and fundamental news improved. Near the end of the month, the delivery of enterprises was acceptable, and the price of pure benzene rebounded slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, due to the maintenance of some caprolactam enterprises, the supply is reduced again. The downstream just needs to be purchased, and the terminal demand is OK. The price of raw material pure benzene rose and the cost was strongly supported. The caprolactam market is expected to develop well in September, and the price may rise steadily.