1、 Price data
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According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners decreased slightly this week. On October 17, the average price of Shandong market was 3263.75 yuan / ton, which was 1.36% lower than that of 3308.75 yuan / ton on October 11.
On October 17, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 253.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.18% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 279.50% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the refinery shipped well, the supply of petroleum coke increased, the early high price fell, the downstream demand was good, the refinery actively shipped to inventory, and the local petroleum coke price decreased slightly.
Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen since October. Affected by the rise of European natural gas and the production restriction of oil producing countries, crude oil also shows a shortage of supply. The international oil price has exceeded the $80 mark during the “National Day” and continued to rise after the festival. On October 4, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reached an agreement at the ministerial video conference to maintain the original production policy. The expectation of supply tightening heated up the market panic and the high oil price. What is more noteworthy is that there is an extreme shortage of natural gas in Europe and the United States, and power plants may gradually turn to oil power generation, which will further lead to the shortage of crude oil. Oil prices have been strongly supported in the short term.
Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. As of October 17, the price was 24110.00 yuan / ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 41st week of 2021 (10.11-10.15), there are 13 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (17.75%), power coal (13.81%) and fuel oil (7.09%). There are two commodities with month on month decline, and the products with the first two declines are petroleum coke (- 1.36%) and coking coal (- 0.44%). The average rise and fall this week was 4.24%.
Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that: Recently, the supply of petroleum coke in refineries has increased, the high price in the early stage has dropped, the downstream demand is good, refineries actively ship and destock, the downstream electrolytic aluminum price has increased, the calcined coke price is basically stable, and the downstream operation is cautious. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.
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