Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, since March, the high price of o-benzene has not been supported, the market of o-benzene has been falling continuously, the price of o-benzene has dived twice, and the price of o-benzene has dropped by 800 yuan / ton in March. As of March 23, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5700.00 yuan / ton, down 12.31% from 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (March 1).

Downstream market of industrial chain

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, we can see that the price of phthalic anhydride continued to fall in March, domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started to maintain a low level, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor was about 60%, the spot supply on the floor was normal, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market was general, and the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fall. Downstream market fell, o-benzene rising power weakened, downward pressure increased.

It can be seen from the DOP price trend chart that in March, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, the operating rate of domestic DOP manufacturers rose, the spot supply increased, the PVC price rose slightly, and the DOP demand recovered, but the raw material prices plummeted, DOP supply increased, DOP supply exceeded demand, and DOP prices fell. Downstream market fell, o-benzene rising power weakened, downward pressure increased.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of crude oil and mixed xylene that the price of WTI crude oil fluctuated and adjusted in March. From March 15 to 19, the oil price fell for five consecutive trading days, and the oil price fell continuously. The bad news of the market was released, but the process of market recovery remained unchanged. In the long run, the economic recovery is still good for the oil price. Affected by the crude oil market, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and adjusted in March. As of March 23, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and rose slightly, but it was depressed by multiple bad news, the support of mixed xylene weakened, and the risk of mixed xylene falling was greater. On the whole, the cost of o-benzene is volatile and stable, the future rising power is limited, the risk of decline still exists, and the support of o-benzene cost is insufficient.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business society, believes that affected by the recent weak crude oil market, the mixed xylene market is volatile and weak, the o-xylene cost is volatile and adjusted, and the o-xylene cost support is weakened; for the downstream, the market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer continues to fall sharply, the demand for o-xylene is just the main, and the pressure of o-xylene decline is relatively large. However, with the slow recovery of the operating rate of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer enterprises, the o-xylene market is declining Demand is rising, and there is still some support for the rise of o-benzene in the future. Generally speaking, the pressure of o-benzene’s decline in the future is greater. However, with the slow rise of the operating rate of downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, the space for o-benzene’s decline is limited. It is expected that the o-benzene market will fluctuate slightly in the future.

On March 22, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 0 kinds of commodities that rose, 2 kinds of commodities that fell, and 5 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Declining products include fluorite and chloroform; stable products include hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride, cryolite, R22 and R134a.

On March 22, the prices of some fluorite chemical raw materials in the market declined. The price of fluorite was 2750 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite dropped slightly. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants stopped. The fluorite supply in the plant was normal. However, in the near future, the downstream market was mainly stable, and the decline of fluorite price was limited. As of the 22nd, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the price trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is temporarily stable, and the operating rate is still low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the normal supply in the market, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable. As of the 22nd, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid market is 10622.22 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable Fluoric acid spot supply is normal. Recently, the market of goods on the floor is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the floor reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been declining. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much, and the demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market is not actively preparing goods, the market price of trichloromethane has gone down. At present, the start-up of trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is sufficient, and the shipping situation of enterprises is general. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of chloroform is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform remains high, and the cost support is general. In the near future, the downstream gradually starts to stock up, the demand side has risen, and the market center slightly rises. As the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable, the price of some affected refrigerants rises. Refrigerant R134a price trend has an upward trend, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of chlorinated paraffins rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, the average price was 5660 yuan / ton. The price rose by 1.2% in the week

2、 Market analysis

Domestic chlorinated paraffin prices rose this week. Affected by the price difference of raw materials, there are regional differences in the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin, and the price of paraffin market rises and falls with each other. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is about 5400-5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is relatively stable, about 5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is about 4900-5600 yuan / ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5200-5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply on March 18, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.06/barrel, down 4.57 US dollars or 7.07%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract at 63.03 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 4.97 U.S. dollars or 7.30%. WTI and Brent oil prices both fell by more than 7% on Thursday. At present, they have fallen for five consecutive trading days, mainly due to the slowdown of vaccination in Europe, which depresses the momentum of economic recovery, the strong US dollar and the increase of US crude oil inventory.

Liquid wax, liquid wax prices this week more stable, the overall trading atmosphere is good. In terms of liquid chlorine, the market price of liquid chlorine has been reduced. The price of liquid chlorine in Anhui is 1800-1900 yuan / ton; the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is about 1700-1900 yuan / ton; the price of liquid chlorine in Northeast is about 1700-1900 yuan / ton; the price of liquid chlorine in Hebei is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. In terms of demand, the downstream enterprises have basically started operation, the demand is fair, and the overall trading atmosphere is general.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin this week is general. At present, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 is still at a relatively high level. The downstream takes the goods on demand. The wait-and-see mood is obvious. Individual manufacturers are blocked in shipping. There are regional differences in the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin. The price of raw material liquid chlorine is high with strong support. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be strong in the short term.

This week (3.15-19) liquid ammonia market rose sharply, according to the business community monitoring, liquid ammonia weekly decline of 4.59%. As of March 19, the monthly growth rate was 6.15%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3400-3500 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of liquid ammonia rose sharply, mainly due to the tight supply. On the one hand, the two sessions ended, the environmental protection warning was lifted, the export volume of ammonia in northern China increased, the manufacturers discharged the warehouse, and the inventory pressure was significantly reduced. Moreover, Henan, Hubei, Chongqing and Northeast China have all been overhauled, and the supply of liquid ammonia is more tight due to the reduction of liquid ammonia output. According to the statistics of business news agency, big factories in Shandong have increased their quotations four times in five trading days a week, with an increase of 250 yuan / ton. In addition, the demand side is better than the earlier stage. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the amount of replenishment in the downstream is increased, the performance of urea in the downstream is better, and the output of liquid ammonia is limited, which aggravates the shortage of ammonia.

After the year, the market gradually warmed up, the long-distance transportation recovered rapidly, and the liquid ammonia market ushered in the delivery period. As the inventory of liquid ammonia of most manufacturers has declined, it has also cleared the way for the price rise. After the festival, the demand for urea, phosphate fertilizer and other downstream products has picked up, and the purchase has increased. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei has also picked up significantly.

In terms of urea, urea rose by 2.25% this week. At the same time of tight supply, India’s urea bidding announcement led to the rise of urea price, and foreign trade led to domestic trade procurement. The market is optimistic about the Indian bid price and domestic market expectation as a whole. It is estimated that at present, the upstream factories have exhausted the pressure in the early stage, and there is no pressure to receive orders for the time being. There are export-oriented factories that limit the order receiving, and control the pressure of port gathering and shipment within a certain range. Domestic prices are expected to remain high in the short term.

 
As far as the downstream compound fertilizer is concerned, it is generally consolidated at a high point. According to the monitoring of the business society, monoammonium phosphate rose by 3.09% in March, but this week’s rise and fall were all zero. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period, and spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation has come to an end. The agricultural demand continues to weaken. It is expected that with the price of liquid ammonia continues to rise, the downstream profit will be squeezed, which will also affect the downstream demand, and the price of compound fertilizer may increase in the later stage It’s up.

In the future, the business community believes that the current shortage of liquid ammonia is difficult to solve in a short time, and the maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices may last for nearly a month, and the market supply will continue to be good in the short term. It does not rule out the possibility that the price of liquid ammonia will continue to rise next week, but with the contraction of downstream procurement, the price rise of liquid ammonia will also be limited.

On March 18th, 2021, the price of fluorine chemical industry rose in the list of 0 commodities, 0 commodities fell, 7 commodities rose and dropped to 0. Stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride, cryolite, R22, R134a and chloroform.

On March 18, the price trend of raw materials market of fluorine chemical industry was temporarily stable, the price of raw fluorite was 2761.11 yuan / ton, and the fluorite price trend remained high. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started generally, and some units in the field were stopped, and the supply of fluorite in the field was tight, but the downstream market was stable in the near future, and the fluorite price was limited by the impact. As of the 18th, the fluorite price in Jiangxi Province was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that of Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fluorite price will remain high in the later period.

In the near future, some prices in the downstream refrigerant industry have risen, and the starting rate remains low. For hydrofluoric acid demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased due to the normal supply in the field. As of 18, the price of hydrofluoric acid market is 10611.11 yuan / ton. In the near future, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable mainly, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid commencement rate is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the current market price trend is stable The supply of domestic HFA spot goods is normal. The market is generally in the near future. Some enterprises have stable ex factory prices. As of now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, the insiders on the site report that the recent rise of hydrofluoric acid market is difficult. Chenling, an analyst of business society, thinks the market of hydrofluoric acid will remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is stable temporarily, the supply in the field is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

Recently, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong Province is stable temporarily, the overall demand of downstream market is not changed much, and the demand for trichloromethane is general. With the downstream market starting to prepare goods, the price of trichloromethane market remains high. At present, the enterprises of chloromethane production in Shandong Province are starting high, the spot supply in the market is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is improved. In order to prevent the excessive pressure of the later market, the enterprises bid for delivery. At present, Shandong Province offers about 4300-4400 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the equipment in the site is stable and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

Recently, the price trend of R22 in the downstream is stable temporarily, the price of raw material trichloromethane is high, and the cost side is generally supported. In the near future, the downstream gradually began to prepare goods, with the demand side rising, and the market center of gravity has been slightly higher. Because the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable, the price of the affected part of the refrigerant has been higher. The price trend of R134a refrigerant has a rising trend, and the market is relatively strong. Recently, the downstream construction has maintained a low level, but the raw material support is strong, and the refrigerant market has been higher.