1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling in August

According to the data of business agency, as of August 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 11766.67 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of 2.32% compared with 11500.00 yuan / ton on August 1.

On August 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 110.85, down 0.31 points from yesterday, down 10.37% from the highest point 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 116.59% from the lowest point 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In August, the market price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling, and the international crude oil rebounded at the end of the month, resulting in an increase in the domestic chemical price, an increase in the operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin, mainly weak consolidation in the resin market and just needed procurement. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11600 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 12000 yuan / ton.

The recent sharp rebound in crude oil has basically recovered the previous decline. On the one hand, the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate supports the strength of crude oil. On the other hand, market participants believe that the US government had previously urged OPEC to increase production to curb oil prices, and the market sold oil prices too short. Under the current situation of relatively stable supply and demand fundamentals, China’s epidemic peak passed, and the economic acceleration brought demand growth. Superimposed on the decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, oil prices rose in a revised manner.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated downward in August. The ex factory price in North China was 8137.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7520 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 7.59%. In August, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was lowered three times, with a cumulative reduction of 600 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7550 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7500 yuan / ton. In August, the start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises declined, and the start-up in northern China was slightly lower. The start-up and shutdown cost of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was lower than that of pure benzene, and most manufacturers arranged their production according to their profits. In terms of n-butane, Shandong price is 5300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that: at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market supply is limited, some factories are pre sold to late September, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose sharply this week. The average price of sulfur production was 1863.33 yuan / ton on August 27, an increase of 6.07% compared with 1756.67 yuan / ton on August 20.

This week, the domestic sulfur market was strong and upward, the supply of goods in Hong Kong was tight, it was difficult to find low prices on the site, the goods holders were reluctant to sell, and the external price was strong, which boosted the market mentality. The shipments of refineries in various regions of China were stable, and the downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The on-site mentality was positive, the market transaction atmosphere was good, and the enterprise shipments were smooth, The price of domestic refineries will be increased according to their own shipment, and the price of liquid sulfur in East China will be increased by 100 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be increased by 40-100 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be increased by 40 yuan / ton. As of the 27th, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties August 20th August 27th Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1700-1820 yuan / ton 1850-1940 yuan / ton 120-150 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1590-1680 yuan / ton 1690-1730 yuan / ton 50-100 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 1760-1780 yuan / ton 1860-1880 yuan / ton 100 yuan / ton

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market operates on a wait-and-see basis. The atmosphere in the primary ammonium fertilizer field is weak, the waiting volume of enterprises is reduced, the quotation of enterprises is high, and the downstream market just needs to enter the market. The price of diammonium decreased slightly within the week, mainly due to the export of enterprise orders, insufficient domestic supply, weak market transactions, and wait-and-see consolidation of the future market. In terms of supply and demand performance, the ammonium phosphate market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

According to the sulfur analysts of business society, the domestic sulfur market is high and strong, the supply of port goods is tight, the cargo holders are reluctant to sell, the spot on the site is difficult to find, and the external price is strong, which has strong support for the domestic refinery sulfur market. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to be sorted and operated, and pay attention to the market progress.

Cobalt prices stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the cobalt Market stabilized after rising this week, and the cobalt price rose slightly. As of August 27, cobalt price was 369666.66 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from 364000.00 yuan / ton on August 20 last weekend; Compared with the cobalt price of 376333.34 yuan / ton on August 1, it decreased by 1.77%. After the cobalt market rose this week, the cobalt price stabilized, the rise of cobalt price was insufficient, and the cobalt price wanted to fall in the future.

Cobalt salt prices fell this week

time product

Cobalt oxide Cobalt sulfate Cobalt chloride Co3O4 Cobalt carbonate Lithium cobalt oxide Company

August 20th 287000-297000 77000-79000 88000-90000 290000-300000 187000-190000 318000-325000 Yuan / ton

August 23rd 287000-297000 77000-79000 88000-90000 290000-300000 187000-190000 318000-325000 Yuan / ton

August 24th 285500-295500 76000-79000 87000-90000 290000-297000 187000-190000 318000-325000 Yuan / ton

August 25th 285500-295500 76000-79000 87000-90000 290000-297000 187000-190000 318000-325000 Yuan / ton

August 26th 283500-293500 76000-79000 87000-90000 288000-295000 185000-188000 318000-325000 Yuan / ton

August 27th 283500-293500 76000-79000 87000-90000 288000-295000 185000-188000 318000-325000 Yuan / ton

Rise and fall – three thousand and five hundred – five hundred – five hundred – three thousand and five hundred – two thousand 0 Yuan / ton

According to the statistics of business society, the price of cobalt salt generally fell this week. The prices of cobalt oxide and cobalt trioxide both fell by 3000 yuan / ton this week, the price of cobalt carbonate fell by 2000 yuan / ton, and the prices of cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride fell slightly by 500 yuan / ton. Cobalt salt prices fell, dragging down the cobalt market, and metal cobalt prices were dragged down, with insufficient upward momentum.

The decline of international cobalt price dragged down the domestic cobalt market

time Category specification minimum price Rise and fall Highest price Rise and fall Company

August 20th Standard grade cobalt twenty-three point seven five 0 twenty-four point six – zero point two USD / lb

August 20th Alloy grade cobalt twenty-three point seven five 0 twenty-four point six – zero point two USD / lb

August 23rd Standard grade cobalt twenty-three point seven – zero point zero five twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 23rd Alloy grade cobalt twenty-three point seven – zero point zero five twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 24th Standard grade cobalt twenty-three point six – zero point one twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 24th Alloy grade cobalt twenty-three point six – zero point one twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 25th Standard grade cobalt twenty-three point six 0 twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 25th Alloy grade cobalt twenty-three point six 0 twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 26th Standard grade cobalt twenty-three point five – zero point one twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

August 26th Alloy grade cobalt twenty-three point five – zero point one twenty-four point six 0 USD / lb

As can be seen from the data released by LME market, the recent sharp decline in LME cobalt price, the decline in international cobalt price, dragged down the domestic cobalt market, the rise in domestic cobalt price was affected, and the downward pressure on domestic cobalt price increased. From the trend of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that the international cobalt price fluctuated and fell this week, the international cobalt Market weakened, the international cobalt Market dragged down the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price did not have enough power to rise.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that due to the recent decline in port to port cobalt raw materials, the decline in cobalt raw material imports, and the slight rise in domestic cobalt prices, there has been a short peak in the domestic cobalt market. However, the upstream and downstream industrial chain market and the international cobalt market showed weak performance, dragging down the domestic cobalt market. This week, the price of cobalt salt fluctuated and fell, and the downward pressure on cobalt price increased; International cobalt prices fell sharply, dragging down the rise of domestic cobalt market. Overall, the support for the rise of cobalt price in the future still exists, but the rising power is insufficient, the cobalt price is difficult to reach a new high, and the falling space of cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the shock of cobalt price in the future will stabilize.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia Market accelerated downward. Liquid ammonia continued the decline in the previous two weeks, and the decline deepened this week. According to the monitoring of business society, liquid ammonia fell by 12% in August and 7.53% this week (8.23-26).

Previously, under the influence of enterprise maintenance and domestic shortage, liquid ammonia first experienced a soaring market in mid and late July. However, the good time is not long. Since the end of July, the price of liquid ammonia has continued to decline. On the one hand, the epidemic has led to poor traffic and inventory backlog. On the other hand, the high opening rate of enterprises has led to a surge in output. Without any favorable demand, liquid ammonia fell again and again. Up to now, the price of liquid ammonia in China is 4000-4200 yuan / ton, and it has fallen below 4000 yuan in some areas.

On the cost side, liquid ammonia deviates from the upstream coal market. Due to the increase of cost pressure and the downward impact of liquid ammonia price, the profits of ammonia enterprises have shrunk sharply, and now they are hovering on the edge of loss. The domestic coal market continues to be hot. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 26, the price of thermal coal rose by 5.29% this week. At present, the price of thermal coal is close to 1100 yuan / ton（ (see figure above)

On the supply side, in mid and late August, domestic ammonia enterprises ushered in a centralized production resumption period. Previously, many sets of units were overhauled in various places, and units in the maintenance period were started in Shandong, Hebei, Ningxia, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a significant increase in market supply. More importantly, in the early July, affected by the domestic epidemic, the traffic was poor, the shipment of ammonia enterprises decreased, and the manufacturer’s inventory continued to rise, forcing the price of ammonia enterprises to fall again and again. In the first four working days of this week, some enterprises fell by 500 yuan / ton.

On the demand side, urea continued to decline in mid and late August. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline deepened this week, with a weekly decline of 5.45%. Weak demand side is the main reason for the decline of urea. After entering August, the domestic agricultural demand for urea has basically ended, the procurement has slowed down, and the increment of industrial demand is also insufficient. The recession on the demand side has led to the continuous accumulation of industrial inventory, the continuous price reduction of manufacturers and the pessimistic downward market.

In the future, the supply pressure of domestic ammonia is still obvious, but at present, the price is low, the upstream cost surges, the enterprise pressure increases significantly, and the demand side. It is expected that the seasonal increment space of compound fertilizer will be limited in September, and the agricultural and industrial demand will still be weak. Therefore, it is difficult to be optimistic about the price of liquid ammonia. However, considering the deviation of cost, it is not ruled out that the manufacturers will reduce the load next, On the whole, the bottom of the market is not far away, but it will take time to reverse.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 23, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price on August 16. Compared with the price on August 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.23%.

Recently, the domestic n-propanol market has been stable, with overall stable consolidation and operation. At present, the n-propanol plant is under normal operation, the contract user orders are mainly, the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is acceptable. At present, the trend of the secondary market of n-propanol is mostly wait-and-see, and the adjustment is made within the range with reference to the prices of large manufacturers. Because the dealers and traders have reservations about the prices, it is difficult to monitor the commodity prices. The specific prices are negotiated on the basis of actual documents. In addition, the quotations in each region are also different, and the prices are for reference only. At present, as of August 23, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 6700-7000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 8000-8500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol is 7400 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that a week ago, up 4.23% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the recent external ethylene market showed a downward trend. On August 20, the European ethylene market quoted FD northwest Europe at US $1194-1205 / ton, down US $100 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe at US $1130-1138 / ton, down US $37 / ton. On August 20, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $840-858 / ton, up US $5 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general. On August 20, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $926-936 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $956-966 / ton, down US $5 / ton. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia have mainly fallen.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand of downstream users of n-propanol is relatively stable, the demand side changes little in the short term, and the domestic factories start normally. Therefore, the analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the later stage, the market of n-propanol continues to operate stably, which does not rule out that individual shippers adjust their prices narrowly according to their own inventory.